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241. Leaders and laggards, on the way down and up

Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
With the economies of most countries having passed their troughs, it is a good time to take stock of some of the main features of the crisis so far and to assess what the upturn may look like. In this article, we look back at how the different countries have fared in this crisis and how monetary and fiscal authorities have responded to the crisis. We then turn to the nascent recovery to compare and contrast the upturn across countries. Finally, we highlight some of the main legacies of this crisis. Exposure to financial services, housing booms, consumer debt and trade with the US were seen as factors that would make some countries suffer deeper downturns than others. In the event, the downturn has surprised by how quickly it has spread across countries. So the most affected countries turned out to be the most exposed to the world economy such as Germany, Italy, Japan and Eastern Europe. All major central banks have responded with aggressive cuts in interest rates and adopted wide-ranging unconventional measures. This has helped stabilise financial markets, but the goal of getting credit flowing to the non-financial economy has not yet been achieved. Governments have also responded to the crisis with large fiscal stimulus packages. These packages have helped contain the collapse in activity and contributed to some countries exiting the recession in 2009Q2. Whether these packages will be enough to get the world economy back on a sustainable growth path is still uncertain though. Beyond the short term, where fiscal stimulus and the stock cycle will boost growth, the recovery is expected to be sluggish and bumpy in most places. History suggests that recoveries from financial crises tend to be slower than others, and the repair of household and corporate balance sheets will be a drawn out process. In addition, with large amounts of spare capacity around the world, demand for investment will be weak for some time to come. Furthermore, the nascent upturn has already put pressure on oil and commodity prices. If this continues, it will hamper growth in net importer economies. These factors will combine with country-specific features that determine their potential growth. We forecast the recovery to be most drawn out in Italy, Japan and Germany as these countries are hit by weak demand for investment goods and are characterised by relatively low potential growth. One main legacy of this crisis is the likelihoo d of years of fiscal austerity, to bring public deficits back under control. Another legacy may be in changes to the regulation of financial services, although do date little progress has been made in this area. In addition, EMU has so far proved a resilient entity during the crisis, so that the euro could gain a more prominent role on the world stage, depending on how it fares in the upturn.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Markets
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, Germany, and Italy

242. European Security and the Role of Italy

Author:
Stefano Silvestri and Michele Nones
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy is a medium-sized power that is heavily exposed to security risks from both the Mediterranean basin/Middle East and the Balkans. Making its territory particularly permeable to them is the deeply rooted presence of criminal organisations.
Topic:
Security and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Balkans, and Italy

243. Control of Illegal Immigration and Italian-EU Relations

Author:
Bruno Nascimbene
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Controlling maritime borders and flows of illegal immigrants in the Mediterranean is an issue where sharp tensions have been evident for some months now at the national, EU and international levels. Tensions evidenced by the reactions and outcry provoked by operations involving Italian naval units which have intercepted boats carrying migrants and sent them back to their ports of departure, most notably in Libya. The migrants concerned were deemed to be illegal regardless of their possible asylum-seeker status. Such interventions have raised, and continue to raise, concerns over the fate of the persons involved, especially as regards the protection of their fundamental human rights.
Topic:
Maritime Commerce, Immigration, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Europe, Libya, Italy, and Rome

244. Report of the workshop "Italy's Participation in EU Civilian Missions. Critical Aspects and Future Perspectives"

Author:
Valérie Vicky Miranda
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
2009 marks the tenth anniversary of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), formally launched at the Cologne European Council of June 1999 as an integral part of the European Union's (EU) Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). Since then, political, civilian and military structures have been set up, capabilities development goals identified and we have witnessed a continuous evolution of the ESDP epitomised by the significant number of crisis management operations carried out by the EU since 2003. In these last ten years, the ESDP has become one of the most important instruments of European foreign policy. Indeed, the EU, thanks also to the launch of 23 missions in four continents, has built up its credibility as a global security actor.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

245. Afghanistan's hard summer: The impact on European troop contributing nations

Author:
Timo Behr, Matthieu Chillaud, Toby Archer, Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Valtteri Vuorisalo, and Barbara Zanchetta
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The increase in fighting in the summer of 2009 has led to renewed debate in many of the countries contributing troops to the international mission in Afghanistan. In the UK the heavy loss of life amongst British soldiers has been central to the discussion on Britain's continued contribution. In Germany the debate has more focused on the increasingly offensive actions that the Bundeswehr is undertaking. France's contribution to the Afghanistan mission is less politically controversial than in other European countries because of the president's power over foreign and security policy. For many years Italy's Afghanistan contribution was less politically sensitive compared to the Italian presence in Iraq, but this is changing with the increase in violence in Afghanistan. In Sweden the annual parliamentary approval process and the increased expeditionary focus of the armed forces have lead to a strong consensus on the need to participate in Afghanistan. The debate in Finland is sporadic and reactive as there is not an annual parliamentary debate as is the case in Sweden and Germany. Nevertheless Finland's contribution is centrally linked to the decision made in those countries.
Topic:
Political Violence, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Britain, Afghanistan, Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, Finland, Germany, Italy, and Sweden

246. Italy: the uneasy co-existence of different social models

Author:
Marino Regini and Sabrina Colombo
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The “European social model” includes a welfare regime with generous social expenditure; high employment or income protection; a well-developed system of industrial relations; and involvement of social partners in policymaking. Within the Italian social model, however, one can find three major dividing lines. The first one stems from the coexistence of different models in different areas of the country. Second, an occupation-based principle in pensions and in unemployment benefits coexists with a citizenship-based one in health and education. Finally, core workers enjoy high job and income security, whereas outsiders are highly dependent on the market. These three dividing lines substantially endanger the legitimacy and social acceptance of the Italian social model: each of them profoundly affects the perceptions of workers and citizens, leading to widespread criticism of even those aspects that clearly benefit them and, at the same time, to fierce opposition to the several attempts at reforming it.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Privatization
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

247. How European Protest Transforms Institutions of the Public Sphere: Discourse and Decision-Making in the European Social Forum Process

Author:
Nicole Doerr
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
Against the background of the alleged democratic deficit of EU institutions, this case study explores how politicization and emerging transnational public spaces in European protest movements innovate existing practices of discursive or grassroots deliberative democracy in national social movements. I studied the European Social Forum (ESF) process, a transnational participatory democracy platform created by civil society groups and social movement organizations. I explored discourse and decision-making in the small-scale European Assemblies in which hundreds of activists have met six times a year since 2002 to organize the ESFs, and form campaigns on issues such as global and social justice, peace, climate change, migration, health, or education. Comparing activists' democratic norms and discourse practices in these frequently occurring European Assemblies with social forum assemblies at the national level in Germany, Italy and the UK, I arrived at a surprising result: European Assemblies reflect a higher degree of discursive inclusivity, dialogue and transparency in decision-making and discussion compared to national social forum assemblies. In this paper I discuss structural, strategic and cultural changes that occur in the process of a Europeanization “from below”, that is, when social movement activists work together transnationally across a certain time period. I argue that European protest as a form of contentious Europeanization has developed new social practices and actors that innovate existing practices of participatory democracy at the national level, showing the relevance of social movements to democratize European integration.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, and Italy

249. Finance and the Macro-economy: The Politics of Regulatory Reform in Europe

Author:
Sofía Perez and Jonathan Westrup
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper analyzes major changes in the regulation of the financial sector in Europe over the last three decades. Focusing on the pattern of change across five countries (Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain), the paper identifies two major periods of regulatory change: first, the shift away from postwar patterns of credit regulation in the 1970s and 1980s, and second, the intensification of state supervisory powers and the introduction of new regulatory structures from the 1990s to the present. In both cases, the authors point to the way in which different models of financial sector regulation affect the political consequences of macro-economic policy for political elites as an explanation for choices that governments have made in the regulatory arena. More specifically, while regulatory change in the first period may be largely explained by the way in which different postwar models of credit regulation impinged upon a government's political ability to impose disinflation, choices in favor of different regulatory structures in the second period (single regulator in Britain and Germany versus multiple regulators in the other countries) can be related to differences in the area of pension reform. By focusing on the political implications that different modes of financial regualtion can have for elected officials in the context of different macroeconomic scenarios, the authors offer an explanation of regualtory change that differs from accounts which emphasize the primacy of financial market forces in driving such change.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

250. Review of The Price of Fear: The Truth Behind the Financial War on Terror by Ibrahim Warde

Author:
Rebecca Hekman
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
al Nakhlah
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
On November 7, 2001, amid much fanfare, the U.S. led a global shutdown of Al-Barakaat, a large Somali remittance company headquartered in Dubai. The first major target in the financial war on terror, the company stood accused of providing $15-25 million annually to Al-Qaeda. U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill called Al-Barakaat “the quartermasters of terror” Bush announced that the strike was predicated on “solid and credible” evidence that the company was “operating 'at the service of mass murderers.” Simultaneous police raids in four U.S. states, Canada, Italy, Switzerland, and the UAE were hailed as a resounding success. Having ostensibly interrupted Al-Qaeda's communications and made a significant dent in the organization's finances, the strike was also to uncover a wealth of information for law enforcement
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, Italy, and Switzerland