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121. Hamas Visits Ankara: The AKP Shifts Turkey's Role in the Middle East

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Khalid Mishal, a Hamas leader currently residing in Damascus, visited Ankara today. Despite fierce debate in the Turkish press and objections from the secular-minded foreign policy elite, Mishal's visit went ahead with backing from Turkish prime minister Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. From the American perspective, the visit is important for three reasons. First, it could potentially hurt Turkey's longstanding role as an honest broker between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Second, it serves as yet another foreign policy breech between Turkey and the West. Third, the visit is a telltale sign of the AKP's policy of “strategic depth” toward the Middle East, a policy that Washington needs to understand given U.S. objectives in Iraq, Syria, and Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

122. Can al-Qaeda's Lebanese Expansion Be Stopped?

Author:
Emily Hunt
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Israelis assess the implications of Hamas's victory in January elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council, a new threat may be developing in Lebanon. Al-Qaeda–linked terrorists have been present in Lebanon for a decade, but recent statements by Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi suggest that the dual objectives of destabilizing Arab regimes and targeting Israel proper are becoming top al-Qaeda priorities. Al-Zarqawi–linked terrorists in Lebanon have already engaged in low-level targeting of Israeli and Lebanese interests, yet several obstacles may hinder their ability to launch significant attacks in or from Lebanon. The Lebanese government, although weak, has a clear interest in preventing both internally and externally directed al-Qaeda activity. The dynamic among Hizballah, the Palestinians, and al-Qaeda remains more ambiguous, but early signs suggest potential antagonism among the groups. Together, Israel and the United States may be able to help Lebanon contain this emerging threat.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

123. Fatah's Prospects in the Legislative Elections

Author:
Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With just over two weeks left before January 25 Palestinian legislative elections, the mainstream Fatah movement remains bitterly divided, with some of its key factions advocating the postponement of elections and others demanding that voting be held as scheduled. Having publicly aired its internal problems over the last weeks rather than developing a clear campaign message, Fatah is unlikely to win more than 40 percent of the seats in the next Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). Even though the question of Israel allowing voting in East Jerusalem now seems resolved, it remains to be seen whether elections will take place. If they do proceed, Fatah is certain to lose its monopoly on the Palestinian Authority and will require a coalition to form the next government.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

124. Simmering Fire in Asia: Averting Sino-Japanese Strategic Conflict

Author:
Michael Swaine and Minxin Pei
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The rapid deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations in recent years has raised geopolitical tensions in East Asia and could embroil China and Japan in a dangerous strategic conflict that could be threatening to U.S. interests. China's rise, Japan's growing assertiveness in foreign policy, and new security threats and uncertainties in Asia are driving the two countries increasingly further apart. Political pandering to nationalist sentiments in each country has also contributed to the mismanagement of bilateral ties. But Japan and China are not destined to repeat the past. Their leaders must ease the tensions, restore stability, and pursue a new agenda of cooperation as equals. For its part, the United States must play a more positive and active role.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

125. China Brief, The Dragon's Thirst for Canadian Oil

Author:
Wenran Jiang, Willy Lam, David G. Wiencek, and Drew Thompson
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
April marked a small leap forward in China's energy relations with Canada. China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) put down $150 million for a one-sixth stake in MEG Energy Corp., an upstart oil sands company. This is China's first major investment in Canada's vast oil sands industry. Two days later, Petro China International Co. Ltd. signed a memorandum of understanding with Canada's giant pipeline company Enbridge Inc., promising cooperation in the $2.5 billion Gateway pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast that may supply China with 200,000 barrels of crude a day once completed. China's large energy corporations are predicting more such deals but at a “much bigger” scale.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Canada, and Israel

126. China Brief,Beijing's Growing Politico-Economic Leverage over Ulaanbaatar

Author:
Morris Rossabi, Sergei Blagov, Migeddorj Batchimeg, Alicia Campi, and Wang Wei-Fang
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Just before the 2005 Tsagaan Sar (or New Year's) celebrations, a Mongolian government official urged his fellow citizens not to buy Chinese gifts for relatives and friends because if they did he estimated that $30 million would enter China's coffer.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Eurasia, and Israel

127. China Brief, Anti-Japanese Protests Pose Long-Term Challenges for Beijing

Author:
You Ji, Willy Lam, Tarique Niazi, and John C.k. Daly
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
It is not surprising that President Hu Jintao and his colleagues decided in mid-April to cool down anti-Japanese protests: a body blow has been dealt to China's reputation as a responsible member of the global community. The fact that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) administration was close to losing control over xenophobic crowds has again alerted Beijing to the reality that nationalism is a double-edged sword. There are also signs that CCP factions not allied with Hu and his sidekick, Premier Wen Jiabao, have used the worsening crisis with Japan to fault the way that the Hu-Wen team has conducted its foreign policy.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

128. China Brief, Beijing's Alarm Over New “US Encirclement Conspiracy”

Author:
Mohan Malik, Frank Ching, Willy Lam, and William R. Hawkins
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
One of Beijing's worst nightmares seems to be coming true. Having apparently steadied the course in the Middle East, the Bush administration is turning to Asia to tame its long-standing “strategic competitor.” While this particular term has been shelved since 9/11 – and Sino-U.S. relations have improved thanks to China's cooperation with Washington's global anti-terrorist campaign – there are signs at least from Beijing's perspective that Washington is spearheading multi-pronged tactics to contain the fast-rising Asian giant.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Asia

129. China Brief,Factional Politics and Beijing's Tightening Grip on Hong Kong

Author:
Frank Ching, Eugene Kogan, Willy Lam, and Richard A. Bitzinger
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The saga of Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's fall from grace has highlighted Beijing's tightening grip over the Special Administrative Region (SAR), as well as the dicey future of the “one country, two systems” model. While Tung indicated last Thursday that he had submitted his resignation to Beijing earlier that day because of failing health, news about his impending departure had already been splashed across the Hong Kong papers on March 2
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

130. China Brief,U.S.-Japan Security Declaration Causes China to Reconsider Stance on North Korea

Author:
Willy Lam, Arnold Zeitlin, Mikyoung Kim, and Ahmad Lutfi
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The likelihood of Beijing putting more pressure on Pyongyang regarding the nuclear issue has decreased given Hu Jintao's perception that a plethora of “anti-China” actions have been emanating from the Bush administration. This has increased the possibility of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) flaunting the North Korean card against America's so-called containment policy against China – as well as Washington's harder line on Iran
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel