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141. Iran Is Not an Island: A Strategy to Mobilize the Neighbors

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
With luck, Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons could be delayed through a combination of Iranian technical difficulties, U.S. military action, and European diplomacy. However, neither delay nor regime change would remove the causes of proliferation pressures in Iran. Iran needs to be assured that the U.S. will respect its autonomy if it ceases nuclear weapons development, while Iran's neighbors need to be reassured that Tehran will respect their interests. Arab governments are reluctant to join in a regional security dialogue in part because of Washington's double standard regarding Israel's nuclear arsenal and treatment of Palestinians. To mobilize all of the international actors opposing Iranian nuclear development, the U.S. must recognize that Iranian proliferation, Persian Gulf security, the U.S. role in the Middle East, Israel's nuclear status, and Palestinian-Israeli relations are all linked and cannot be resolved without a more balanced U.S. stance.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Palestine, and Persia

142. Engaging Israel: The Significance of the Istanbul Meeting between Israel and Pakistan

Author:
Simon Henderson and Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The September 1 meeting in the Turkish city of Istanbul between Israeli foreign minister Silvan Shalom and his Pakistani counterpart, Khurshid Kasuri, was historic. There have been no public official contacts between the two nations since Pakistan was founded in 1947 as a home for Muslims in the Indian subcontinent just a few months before Israel, the Jewish national home, achieved statehood in 1948. The meeting represents a major breakthrough in Jerusalem's efforts to overcome diplomatic isolation and also indicates that Turkey is determined to play a more active role than previously thought.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

143. Economic Leverage and the North Korean Nuclear Crisis

Author:
Kimberly Ann Elliott
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Almost a decade ago, as the last nuclear crisis with North Korea was reaching a peak, I concluded the following about the potential utility of economic sanctions: The debate over US policy toward North Korea boils down to one deceptively simple question: what does Kim Il-sung want? No one can be sure of the answer and different interpretations have quite different policy implications. If the Great Leader views a nuclear weapons option as important to the survival of his regime, economic sanctions are unlikely to force him to give it up. But if he views the threat of developing nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip, some combination of carrots and sticks may induce him to trade it away.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and North Korea

144. Israel/Turkey: Strategic Ties

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Israel's Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz met senior Turkish defence officials on July 27 to discuss defence cooperation. Israel and Turkey, facing similar strategic problems based on shared interests and fears, are in the process of building the most powerful alliance in the Middle East. They are doing so in the face of opposition from the Arab and Muslim worlds as well wider concerns, notably on the part of Russia. The Turkish-Israeli alliance now appears sufficiently robust, at least for the moment, to withstand opposition from the Arab and Muslim world. Moreover, US support for the entente may grow owing to concerns about terrorism and stability in the eastern Mediterranean basin, as well as the administration's renewed emphasis on stability in the Gulf.
Topic:
Security and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

145. Middle East — Arafat Manoeuvres

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Senior Palestinian officials this week rejected US President Bill Clinton's peace proposals. All the Palestinian factions have now rejected the proposals designed to end the conflict with Israel. This is a sign of the overwhelming domestic pressure Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is under. However, his position remains one of conditional acceptance as he awaits further US interpretations and clarifications. Arafat's conditional acceptance of the US proposals is an attempt to improve his diplomatic position. He hopes to make use of the enhanced Arab engagement in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process to improve on the terms of a future peace agreement. This will be essential if he is to win domestic approval of any deal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

146. Prime Minister Barak's First Year: Diplomacy and Politics

Author:
Zalman Shoval
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Prime Minister Ehud Barak's tenure started out with almost everything going his way. He had what was often, though misleadingly, described as a "landslide victory" in the 1999 elections (though, in truth, Jewish voters gave him only a slim 3.2 percent majority over Netanyahu - compared to the almost 12 percent margin by which Netanyahu had defeated Peres in the previous elections). Nonetheless, it is true that Barak achieved better electoral results than most other prime ministers in Israeli history. As a result, no Israeli prime minister in recent memory had begun his term with a greater degree of goodwill from different segments of the population - including many who had voted for the other candidate.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Diplomacy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

147. CIAO: Middle East — Arafat's Ambitions

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

148. From Shebaa To Al-Quds: The Evolution Of Hizballah

Author:
Yossi Baidatz and Rachel Stroumsa
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
While international attention has been focused on the shift from diplomacy to violence in the Israeli–Palestinian arena, the "comeback" of Lebanon's Hizballah organization as an instigator of conflict has been, to some observers, a surprise. Following Israel's withdrawal from the "security zone" in May 2000, it was widely held that Hizballah would rest on its laurels and focus on its political/social agenda inside Lebanon. Instead, as recent events show, Hizballah has chosen to persist in its military strategy against Israel. Indeed, in contrast to the low-intensity conflict on the Palestinian front, Hizballah's actions have the potential to trigger a full-scale, inter-state war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Lebanon

149. Assessing Barak's Election Gambit

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's surprise resignation Saturday night has plunged the country's already battered political system into further turmoil, and so far, his gambit seems to have failed. Barak's move was clearly designed, at least in part, to utilize a provision in Israeli law that would sideline his once and would-be opponent Benjamin Netanyahu from running in a special election for prime minister on February 6. Moreover, Barak hoped that by avoiding a general election, he could avert the reconfiguration of the Knesset since polls show that if elections were held today, it would become a more rightward-leaning body.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

150. The Separation Option: An Alternative To The Peace Process?

Author:
Dan Schueftan
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Recently, public opinion in both Israel and the Palestinian territories has shifted in ways that argue for separation or disengagement. Israelis no longer accept the notion that negotiations will eventually lead to peace, but they are far more willing to make concessions to the Palestinians. Palestinians no longer expect a final agreement with Israel, and have instead shifted toward the Lebanon model of using violence to force an Israeli retreat — a trend with tragic implications for the future of Palestinian society.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia