S of this writing, 39 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq in the 10 weeks following the declared conclusion of the campaign to over throw Saddam Hussein on May 1. This fact stands in sharp contrast to the optimistic pre-war rhetoric of the George W. Bush administration regarding the “liberation” of Iraq and testifies to the arduous road that lies ahead.
At the start of 2003, the United States remains focused on fighting global terrorism in general even as it zeroes in on Iraq as the nexus of evil. But a number of factors in play today make international support for such a venture less effusive than in 1990-91, when the last anti-Saddam “coalition of the willing” formed. Many economies, including those of three of the four big financial supporters of the 1990-91 war — Japan, Germany, and Saudi Arabia — are weaker. Any war would be relatively more expensive. Suspicions about U.S. motives, fueled by the Bush administration's initial unilateralism, remain alive despite Washington's patient work in obtaining a UN Security Council resolution on new inspections. Germany has declared it will provide no forces; use of Saudi Arabian airbases to launch combat missions against Iraq remains unclear; and troop contributions, as well as moral support, from other Arab states such as Egypt and Syria may not materialize.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Iraq, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt
The first warnings of an “electronic Pearl Harbor” appeared in 1995. 1 They have appeared regularly since then. Before the conflict with Iraq that began in March 2003, there was speculation that the U.S. would experience cyber attacks in retaliation. Since the onset of the war, however, there have been no reported attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations in Iraq. Nor have there been any reports of cyber attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations since 1996.
There are major uncertainties about the military outcomes and political ramifications of an attack on Iraq. Really three sequential sets of scenarios: The prelude to war and the different ways in which war can occur. The actual process of conflict. The post-conflict occupation of Iraq and the way in which an independent Iraqi regime emerges.
The ramifications of the Iraq crisis are provoking a wholesale reassessment of the post-1945 system of multinational institutions ñ ranging from the United Nations to NATO and the European Union. Underlying such concerns is Americaís use of power and the role it defines for itself in managing its international relations.
Topic:
NATO and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, America, Europe, and Asia
A free market that controlled the number and type of arms available to states and to non-state actors on the basis of their financial means and technological capacity would breed insecurity and stimulate un- necessary military spending. Rules are needed to regulate military capacities, but questions abound. What kinds of rules are needed? How should these rules be applied? As is the case with the provisions of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC), these rules could apply equally to all parties, and be universal and uniform in their application.
Topic:
Security, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Non State Actors
While the Iraqi crisis has served to help define America's position on the world's stage, especially pertaining to trans-Atlantic relations and the West-Islam axis, Turkey's position on Iraq will similarly have a lasting effect on that country's relations both with the West and with the Islamic world. The Turkish government's ambivalent stance towards the Iraqi crisis (first siding with the US position, then deciding to remain on the sidelines in accordance with a legislative decision based mainly on domestic concerns) seriously strained Turkish-American relations. This strain must be addressed, as it is now clear that neither side can take the decades-old, deep-seated ties for granted. As the Iraqi crisis proved, Turkey should not overestimate its strategic geographical location as a guarantee that will ensure America's continuing interest in Turkish concerns. On its part, the US should avoid the patronizing position that was evident in the run-up to the Iraq war. Especially, as the leading supporter of Turkey's fight against the PKK, America should be more attentive to its ally's special concerns and engage in consistent consultation with the Turkish government on Iraq while avoiding any “knee-jerk” reactions or unilateral acts. It is also important that Turkey's economic recovery program should continue to be backed by Washington. As a Middle Eastern country and a long time ally of the US, Turkey's views on the rebuilding of Iraq should be taken into account, especially while anti-Americanism in the area remains strong.
This paper describes and analyses the case of Iraqis who, in the 1990s, have arrived in Jordan as forced migrants, and have continued to Western Europe or Australia as asylum migrants. The argument put forth is that trends of asylum migration cannot be fully understood without looking at a set of interrelated issues in the countries of first reception of the forced migrants: reception standards, the migrants' poor socioeconomic conditions, further violations of their human rights, but also the functioning of the migrants' social networks and of human smuggling rings.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Australia, Jordan, and Western Europe
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Have Chechen separatist guerrillas been fighting against the United States and its allies in places such as Iraq or Afghanistan—and if so, how many have been captured or killed? The U.S. government has been strikingly passive in seeking to learn (or, at least, in publicly disclosing) the answer to that question. Chechnya Weekly began pressing for a precise, concrete answer months ago, but we have yet to get one from the White House, Pentagon, or State Department.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya
Once again events elsewhere have driven news of Canada, the Caribbean and Latin America off the front pages— even from newspapers in the region. Lack of attention may be the least of those countries' concerns about the war. The more serious consequence is likely to be that the war will accentuate the hemisphere's already evident problems. To the degree that the war slows the growth of world trade, the region's near-term economic prospects will suffer, and global uncertainties will dim the promise of more open and dynamic markets.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Canada, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America