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291. Should the War on Terrorism Target Iraq?

Author:
Michael E O'Hanlon and Philip H Gordon
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
As Afghan opposition groups and U.S. armed forces continue their successes in the war against the Taliban and al Qaeda, the American debate has quickly turned to the question of where the fight against terrorism should go next. In numerous public statements, President Bush has talked about a wide-ranging campaign against global terrorism. He has not committed to military operations against any other countries or terrorist organizations, but he has made it clear that the broader struggle against terrorism will be a long-lasting effort that could include the use of military force in regions beyond Afghanistan.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, and Taliban

292. Why the United States Should Not Attack Iraq

Author:
Ivan Eland and Bernard Gourley
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
For months the Bush administration has been preparing the country for war with Iraq. The administration has argued that only a forcible regime change can neutralize the threat that Saddam Hussein is said to pose. But the assumptions that underlie the administration's policy range from cautiously pessimistic to outright fallacious. First, there is a prevalent belief that if Iraq is able to obtain nuclear weapons it will inevitably use them. Second, there is a notion that Hussein is totally irrational and cannot be trusted to act in a predictable manner; and, because of that, his leadership creates a substantial risk of instability in the Middle East. Finally, many people in the United States have come to believe that war in Iraq may be the only means of nullifying the threat posed by Iraq's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons programs.
Topic:
Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

293. Guiding Principles for U.S. Post-Conflict Policy in Iraq

Author:
Frank G. Wisner and Edward P. Djerejian
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Today's Iraq debate is understandably focused on the run-up to possible military action. However, the question of how the United States and the international community should manage post-conflict Iraq is even more consequential, as it will determine the long-term condition of Iraq and the entire Middle East. If Washington does not clearly define its goals for Iraq and build support for them domestically and with its allies and partners, future difficulties are bound to quickly overshadow any initial military success. Put simply, the United States may lose the peace, even if it wins the war.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Arab Countries

294. Sanctions, Inspections, and Containment: Viable Policy Options in Iraq

Author:
David Cortright, Alistair Millar, and George A. Lopez
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
Concerns are growing that Iraq may be rebuilding its capacity to develop and use weapons of mass destruction. After more than three years without UN inspections, the uncertainties and risks associated with Iraq's weapons programs have increased. The urgency of these issues has prompted widespread calls for the resumption of UN weapons inspections, and has led U.S. officials to threaten military attack. The U.S. threats are also motivated by a desire to overthrow the government of Iraq. Pundits in the United States have raised a chorus of calls for military action to topple Saddam Hussein. Many leaders in the region support the goal of disarming Iraq, but as U.S. vice president Dick Cheney learned during his March trip to the Middle East, most of these same leaders oppose U.S. military action against Iraq. States in the region fear the consequences of a U.S.-led war, especially in light of the profound security crisis in the Middle East. These realities suggest the need for viable alternative strategies to resolve the Iraq crisis and protect regional security. This report presents policy options available to the United States for addressing security concerns in Iraq. It examines the issues associated with the threat of weapons development in the region and offers a series of policy options for reducing and containing that threat without resort to military force. The report does not dwell on the uncertainties and risks of waging war on Iraq without international consent. These have been amply examined in other articles and commentaries. The paper concentrates instead on robust alternatives to the use of force. The policy options outlined here include: Reforming UN sanctions to tighten controls on oil revenues and military-related goods while further easing restrictions on civilian economic activity; Facilitating the return of UN weapons inspectors to complete the UN disarmament mandate and reestablish an Ongoing Monitoring and Verification (OMV) system; and Creating an "enhanced containment" system of externally based border monitoring and control if Iraq refuses to allow the resumption of weapons inspections. The report begins with an assessment of Iraq's capacity for developing weapons of mass destruction. It then examines options for controlling Iraq's weapons potential through economic statecraft, United Nations weapons inspections and diplomatic engagement with neighboring countries.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

295. The Quartet, the Road Map, and the Future of Iraq: A Realistic Assessment

Author:
Gerald M. Steinberg
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
In the wake of the failed Camp David summit of July 2000 and the terrible violence that began at the end of September, there have been many efforts to halt the carnage and revive the negotiations. These efforts included summit meetings in Paris and Sharm el Sheik, the Mitchell Commission, and security plans presented by CIA director George Tenet and General Anthony Zinni. None of these had any visible impact, and the Palestinian attacks and Israeli responses have only intensified.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Paris, Palestine, and Arabia

296. First Strike Guidelines: the Case of Iraq

Author:
Charles Knight
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
In the first Clinton administration Secretary of Defense Les Aspin announced that the United States would seek the capability to undertake offensive counterproliferation strikes against proliferators of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). To this end Les Aspin's 1993 Bottom Up Review calls for "Improvements in the ability of both our general purpose and special operations forces to seize, disable, or destroy arsenals of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and their delivery systems."
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

297. Winning Without War: Sensible Security Options for Dealing with Iraq

Author:
George A. Lopez, David Cortwright, and Alistair Millar
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
Advocates of military action against Iraq contend that war is the only certain option for preventing Saddam Hussein from developing or using nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons. They claim that diplomacy, containment, and other options have been tried and found wanting. They add that the possibility that Saddam will pass these weapons on to terrorist groups leaves little choice for measures other than prompt military action. This approach was underscored by President Bush in his address of October 7 delivered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Ohio

298. The Defense Monitor: Victory At An Unknown Cost

Author:
Stephen H. Baker
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Throughout the spring, summer and fall of this year thousands of U.S. military planners have worked on the various contingencies and strategies concerning a possible invasion of Iraq.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

299. The Defense Monitor: Nuclear Time Warp

Author:
Dr. Bruce G. Blair
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
President george W. Bush's new Nuclear Posture Review harks back to the stone age, or at least to the 1950s, when America's most beautiful minds struggled to devise a strategy to deal with the original rogue state — the Soviet Union. The latest exercise to devise a nuclear strategy to neutralize threats of weapons of mass destruction wielded by the 2002-class of rogue states such as Iraq and North Korea is proof that time folds over on itself, and that higher-order nuclear intelligence is as elusive as table-top fusion. This repetition of history isn't funny, but it is dangerous.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iraq and North Korea

300. Proliferation in the "Axis of Evil": North Korea, Iran, and Iraq

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Despite the June 2000 summit meeting and meetings between high level U.S. and North Korean officials on the one hand, and economic turmoil and continued food shortages on the other, we believe North Korea remains committed to maintaining strong military forces. These forces continue to be deployed close to the border with South Korea in an offensively oriented posture, and North Korea's NBC and missile programs likely remain key components of its overall security strategy. The most likely large- scale regional war scenario over the near term, which would involve the United States, would be on the Korean peninsula. In recent years, North Korea has continued to pose a complex security challenge to the United States and its allies. Prior to the 1994 Agreed Framework, North Korea is believed to have produced and diverted sufficient plutonium for at least one, and possibly two, nuclear weapons. In addition, although North Korea froze the production of plutonium in 1994, there are concerns that North Korea is continuing with some elements of a nuclear weapons program. North Korea also possesses stockpiles of chemical weapons, which could be used in the event of renewed hostilities on the peninsula. Research and development into biological agents and toxins suggest North Korea may have a biological weapons capability. North Korea has hundreds of ballistic missiles available for use against targets on the peninsula, some of which are capable of reaching tar-gets in Japan. Its missile capabilities are increasing at a steady pace, and it has progressed to producing medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). North Korea also has continued development of even longer-range missiles that would be able to threaten areas well beyond the region, including portions of the continental United States. As a result of U.S. diplomatic efforts, however, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has maintained a moratorium on launches of long-range missiles for over one year.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Korea