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232. The Defense Monitor: The World At War
- Author:
- Col. Daniel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- At the start of 2003, the United States remains focused on fighting global terrorism in general even as it zeroes in on Iraq as the nexus of evil. But a number of factors in play today make international support for such a venture less effusive than in 1990-91, when the last anti-Saddam “coalition of the willing” formed. Many economies, including those of three of the four big financial supporters of the 1990-91 war — Japan, Germany, and Saudi Arabia — are weaker. Any war would be relatively more expensive. Suspicions about U.S. motives, fueled by the Bush administration's initial unilateralism, remain alive despite Washington's patient work in obtaining a UN Security Council resolution on new inspections. Germany has declared it will provide no forces; use of Saudi Arabian airbases to launch combat missions against Iraq remains unclear; and troop contributions, as well as moral support, from other Arab states such as Egypt and Syria may not materialize.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Iraq, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt
233. Cyber Attacks: Missing in Action
- Author:
- James A. Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The first warnings of an “electronic Pearl Harbor” appeared in 1995. 1 They have appeared regularly since then. Before the conflict with Iraq that began in March 2003, there was speculation that the U.S. would experience cyber attacks in retaliation. Since the onset of the war, however, there have been no reported attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations in Iraq. Nor have there been any reports of cyber attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations since 1996.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
234. An Attack on Iraq: The Military, Political, and Economic Consequences: Scenario Briefing
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- There are major uncertainties about the military outcomes and political ramifications of an attack on Iraq. Really three sequential sets of scenarios: The prelude to war and the different ways in which war can occur. The actual process of conflict. The post-conflict occupation of Iraq and the way in which an independent Iraqi regime emerges.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
235. Addressing the Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction: A moment of opportunity for the EU?
- Author:
- Ian Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- A free market that controlled the number and type of arms available to states and to non-state actors on the basis of their financial means and technological capacity would breed insecurity and stimulate un- necessary military spending. Rules are needed to regulate military capacities, but questions abound. What kinds of rules are needed? How should these rules be applied? As is the case with the provisions of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC), these rules could apply equally to all parties, and be universal and uniform in their application.
- Topic:
- Security, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Non State Actors
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Iraq, Europe, and Kuwait
236. Turkey at the Crossroads on Iraq: A Test Case for US-Turkey Relations
- Author:
- Aysegul Sever
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- While the Iraqi crisis has served to help define America's position on the world's stage, especially pertaining to trans-Atlantic relations and the West-Islam axis, Turkey's position on Iraq will similarly have a lasting effect on that country's relations both with the West and with the Islamic world. The Turkish government's ambivalent stance towards the Iraqi crisis (first siding with the US position, then deciding to remain on the sidelines in accordance with a legislative decision based mainly on domestic concerns) seriously strained Turkish-American relations. This strain must be addressed, as it is now clear that neither side can take the decades-old, deep-seated ties for granted. As the Iraqi crisis proved, Turkey should not overestimate its strategic geographical location as a guarantee that will ensure America's continuing interest in Turkish concerns. On its part, the US should avoid the patronizing position that was evident in the run-up to the Iraq war. Especially, as the leading supporter of Turkey's fight against the PKK, America should be more attentive to its ally's special concerns and engage in consistent consultation with the Turkish government on Iraq while avoiding any “knee-jerk” reactions or unilateral acts. It is also important that Turkey's economic recovery program should continue to be backed by Washington. As a Middle Eastern country and a long time ally of the US, Turkey's views on the rebuilding of Iraq should be taken into account, especially while anti-Americanism in the area remains strong.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East
237. Chechnya Weekly: No Evidence of Chechens in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Have Chechen separatist guerrillas been fighting against the United States and its allies in places such as Iraq or Afghanistan—and if so, how many have been captured or killed? The U.S. government has been strikingly passive in seeking to learn (or, at least, in publicly disclosing) the answer to that question. Chechnya Weekly began pressing for a precise, concrete answer months ago, but we have yet to get one from the White House, Pentagon, or State Department.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya
238. Mexico Alert: The Impact of the War in Iraq on Canada, the Caribbean, and Latin America
- Author:
- Phillip McLean
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Once again events elsewhere have driven news of Canada, the Caribbean and Latin America off the front pages— even from newspapers in the region. Lack of attention may be the least of those countries' concerns about the war. The more serious consequence is likely to be that the war will accentuate the hemisphere's already evident problems. To the degree that the war slows the growth of world trade, the region's near-term economic prospects will suffer, and global uncertainties will dim the promise of more open and dynamic markets.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Canada, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America
239. Mexico Alert: The Impact of the War in Iraq on Mexico
- Author:
- Armand Peschard-Sverdrup
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- When looking at the ramifications of the war in Iraq on the Western Hemisphere, it is clear that the conflict will have the greatest impact on the two nations with which the United States shares borders—Mexico and Canada. From a national security standpoint, these nations' immediate proximity to the United States automatically heightens the threat to their own national security, particularly because we seem to have entered an era in which the use of weapons of mass destruction—be they nuclear, chemical, or biological—poses a viable threat. From a U.S. homeland security standpoint, the shared border transforms both of our friendly neighbors into possible platforms from which rogue elements could stage attacks or enter the United States to threaten our homeland.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Canada, Latin America, North America, and Mexico
240. Iraq: Building a New Security Structure
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For the foreseeable future, Iraq's security will be in the hands of Coalition forces. As a result, how the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) chose to deal with the country's former military and how it is now going about starting up a new army may not have immediate security implications. But both courses have decisive political implications, and both appear, at a minimum, to have been poorly thought out and recklessly implemented. They heighten the risk that the Sunni population will be further alienated, that the military will be perceived as a prolongation of, rather than a substitute for, the occupation and that, far from helping to forge a new collective national identity, it will become an arena for renewed internal political, sectarian and ethnic conflict. A significant course correction is required in order to lay the foundations for a stable, and stabilising, indigenous security structure.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Sovereignty, and Population
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Arabia