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21. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq's Strategic Role in ISIS Operations—A Crossroads of Conflict

Author:
Frzand Sherko
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Effective counter-narratives are required to weaken the group's ideological appeal, especially the propaganda targeting Kurdish populations. Since the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019, ISIS has undergone significant changes in its strategy and operations, especially in critical Iraqi provinces like Kirkuk, Salahuddin, Diyala, and Nineveh, which have historically been hotspots for insurgent activities and are now playing a pivotal role in the reorganization and operations of ISIS in Iraq. Iraq’s “disputed territories”–areas claimed by both the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)–have long been a haven for terrorist organizations. Terrorist leaders Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi operated and were eventually killed in hideouts adjacent to disputed areas, and other figures like Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Abu Ibrahim al-Quraishi, and Abu Hassan al-Quraishi took advantage of the shaky security situation to conduct operations in this locations. However, extremist groups do not thrive in these contested areas out of convenience alone; the provinces of Kirkuk, Salahuddin, Diyala, and Nineveh all hold significant strategic, economic, and geographic importance. Due to its vast oil resources, Kirkuk has been an enticing target, while Salahuddin’s proximity to Baghdad gives it immense historical and strategic significance. Diyala’s shared border with Iran makes it valuable as a launch point for cross-border attacks. Nineveh remains a significant symbolic and operational center even after the loss of territorial control by ISIS, as the province is home to Mosul, the once de facto capital of the ISIS caliphate. The diverse ethnic makeup of each of these provinces has likewise been of interest to ISIS as it has looked to exploit potential cleavages. In addition to military operations, ISIS conducts psychological warfare aimed at destabilizing state authority and creating fear among the population. The ongoing instability in these regions, compounded by political disputes and poor governance, furthers the efficacy of these efforts. However, activity in Erbil and Sulimaniyah is also increasingly visible to Kurdish security and counterterrorism forces.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Islamic State, Conflict, Ideology, and Narrative
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

22. Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 2)

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Ankara’s push for “soft recentralization” in Iraq will likely include more intensive efforts to establish the Development Road and prioritize Baghdad’s interests, though without abandoning the Kurdistan Region. As discussed in Part 1 of this PolicyWatch, Turkey’s Syria strategy is rather circuitous, potentially involving simultaneous negotiations with the Assad regime and the United States while running the risk of damaging relations with Washington if the two governments fail to coordinate their moves. In contrast, Ankara’s Iraq strategy—which boils down to promoting Turkish money over Iranian guns—is more straightforward and likely to receive U.S. backing. To this end, Ankara has conceived the Development Road, a proposed trade network that would run across Iraq and Turkey, connecting Asian and European markets via the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Initially, the project ran counter to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a U.S.-proposed route stretching from India through the Arabian Peninsula and Levant to Europe. Yet the Gaza war and ongoing Houthi maritime attacks have raised security concerns about commercial shipping through the Red Sea, suddenly boosting the prospects of the Development Road at IMEC’s expense. With Gulf money behind the project, Turkish policymakers predict the Development Road’s initial routes could open as early as 2027. Washington should consider throwing its support behind this initiative as well, particularly if it needs to counterbalance Iranian influence in Baghdad following a full or partial U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

23. Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 1)

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Having observed two decades of instability across its southern borders and anticipating U.S. withdrawals, Ankara is planning steps to end the volatility, including potentially wide-ranging agreements with the Assad regime. Events in the Fertile Crescent since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq have not been in favor of Turkish security interests. The ensuing Iraqi civil strife, the rise of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS), and Syria’s civil war collectively resulted in regional instability for over two decades, including numerous terrorist attacks against Turkey. Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a NATO-designated terrorist entity that has been fighting Ankara for decades, took advantage of Iraq’s decentralization to establish itself along the border in the semiautonomous Kurdistan Region. On Turkey’s other southern border, the multinational campaign against IS led to a U.S. partnership with the People’s Defense Units (YPG)—the PKK’s armed Syrian wing that later took a leading role in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and gained control over a large swath of the frontier. This partnership became the greatest impediment to a reset in U.S.-Turkey ties. Today, anticipating that the U.S. military presence in Iraq and Syria will decrease significantly, Ankara aims to promote soft recentralization in both neighbors, toward the broader goals of curbing instability across its borders and denying operational space to the PKK. Part 1 of this PolicyWatch discusses how these goals affect Turkish policy in Syria; Part 2 addresses the implications for Iraq.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Partnerships, PKK, Regional Politics, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

24. Universal Health Coverage for Better Social Protection: The Case of Iraq

Author:
Sami Nader
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Decades of violence, conflict, and humanitarian crises, combined with international sanctions and continuous neglect of the health sector, have seriously harmed Iraq’s healthcare system. As a result, many skilled physicians and other medical practitioners have left the country, causing a shortage of medical staff. Furthermore, Iraqis harbor a great degree of mistrust for the government and the public healthcare system, particularly following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which exposed and aggravated the multitude of vulnerabilities in public healthcare infrastructure and delivery. Once a prosperous and advanced healthcare system, Iraq has been steadily bleeding out talent, with medical staff and other healthcare practitioners emigrating to find better working conditions abroad; in the same vein, a large number of Iraqis travel to regional neighbors for medical care, including to Lebanon, Iran, Jordan, and Türkiye. Ideally, the state would provide social safety and healthcare as fundamental rights for everyone to guarantee fair access and complete coverage. Yet, Iraq’s healthcare system remains in a state of acute crisis and is characterized by disorganization and poor planning, shortages of staff and resources, fragmentation and insufficient coverage, and pervasive corruption, which instead erode the quality, affordability, and accessibility of basic as well as specialist healthcare services for a majority of Iraqis. The lack of long-term, sustainable health policies is widening inequality between Iraqis; large-scale private healthcare systems, acting as substitutes for the public health system, are spreading at a steady rate throughout the country, creating a “two-tier” healthcare system—in other words, one for those who can afford private healthcare services, and the other for those who cannot. Hence, the current landscape is enabling and widening the gap in health disparities for Iraqis. This paper relies on documentation, reports, and studies, in addition to previous recent experience on the ground in terms of public finance management programs as well as regional finance and public policy. It will map the history of Iraq’s healthcare crisis and the impact of the sanctions on health coverage, as well as the strain imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic on service delivery. The paper will then build a case for a collaborative health insurance scheme as an intermediary response to leverage the strengths of Iraq’s public and private sectors, and most pertinently, to alleviate the immediate healthcare needs of the country’s population. Finally, the paper will articulate policy recommendations towards that end, and for the overall Iraqi healthcare system.
Topic:
Health, Public Policy, Health Insurance, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

25. Tackling the proxy problem: Mitigating the threat posed by Iran's "Axis of Resistance"

Author:
Alex Vatanka, Nadwa Al-Dawsari, and Sabri Ates
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The war in Gaza has revealed much about the relationships Iran maintains with its proxy forces across the region, from Lebanon and Syria to Yemen and Iraq. While the various militant groups in the “Axis of Resistance” all receive support from the Islamic Republic, each has its own objectives and strategic focus, a point underlined by the Houthis’ emergence as a key new regional player. The group has fired on commercial ships, attacked military vessels, and shut down maritime traffic on one of the world’s most significant trade arteries. If the situation escalates, Iran-backed groups could unleash far greater havoc, both within the region and well beyond its borders. What steps can the US and its partners take now to ensure that additional Iranian-supported forces do not join the Gaza conflict? And how can Iran’s proxies be deterred from acting to help de-escalate tensions across the region? And what, if anything, can Washington do to change the strategic calculations in Tehran?
Topic:
Proxy Groups, Axis of Resistance, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria

26. ISIS’s enduring threat in Syria and Iraq

Author:
Charles Lister and Alistair Taylor
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On this week's episode, Director of MEI's Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism Programs Charles Lister speaks with MEI Editor-in-Chief Alistair Taylor on the resurgence of the Islamic State, or ISIS, in Syria and Iraq. This episode is the first in a several-part series looking at where the terrorist group stands today and its international footprint 10 years on from the founding of the 87-country Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

27. Education and Employment: Critical for Securing Peace for Gypsies in Iraq

Author:
Sarah Edgcumbe
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Gypsies have been living in both Iraq and the KRI for centuries, contributing to the country’s cultural diversity. Nonetheless, they have occupied a unique social positionality characterised by stigmatisation at all levels of society, including government institutions. Since 2003 in Mosul, and since 2008 in the KRI, there has been an evident reluctance on the part of both governments and NGOs to recognise, and respond to, the humanitarian, development, and protection needs of Gypsy populations. This has rendered Gypsies vulnerable during conflict, displacement, or state fragility. Stigmatisation has also marginalised Gypsy communities, excluding them from public services, support provision or peacebuilding initiatives. The widespread, insidious nature of anti-Gypsy racism and discrimination has enabled the Government of Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to neglect the needs of Gypsy communities in post-conflict Iraq without consequence. This policy paper and comparative analysis briefly examines experiences of conflict, displacement and post-conflict priorities, as narrated by Gypsy communities in Dohuk Municipality and Mosul. Foremost among these priorities are access to a safe environment, good healthcare, and quality education for their children – basic human rights that Gypsy children in neither location are currently able to enjoy adequately. This policy paper urges the Government of Iraq and the KRG to respond to the needs of their Gypsy populations – to facilitate intentional, considered, and long-term assistance and protection which will raise Gypsy communities out of a desperate cycle of poverty, and fully integrate them into society as equals.
Topic:
Education, Minorities, Employment, Peace, and Dom People
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

28. Building bridges for nonviolent change: Women as insider mediators during the October 2019 protests in Iraq

Author:
Ilham Makki Hammadi
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The October 2019 protests in Iraq were notable for their scale, spontaneity, and widespread participation, particularly by young people and women. This report documents the roles of Iraqi women as insider mediators within the movement, highlighting their efforts to maintain peace and build trust among protesters, police, and other stakeholders. Based on interviews with activists across five governorates, the report also examines the gender dynamics and challenges these women faced in mediation, offering insights into their capacity-building needs.
Topic:
Women, Protests, Mediation, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

29. Iraq Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
If uncertainty was the key theme reverberating through Arab Barometer’s 2022 seventh wave findings in Iraq, emergent stability—however slight—is the main one echoing its eighth wave, at least with respect to domestic politics. To be sure, the country still faces many challenges, and protests over corruption, elections, women’s rights, climate change-induced power outages, among other issues have continued to episodically arise. But public sentiment appears to be responding to the efforts of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s government, which has begun to tackle some of the country’s most pressing issues. For Iraqi citizens, corruption remains the biggest challenge facing the country, though there is a considerable increase in the share of citizens who suggest that the government is tackling the issue. Economic grievances, chief among which are a lack of jobs, also continue to preoccupy citizens. More than half of all Iraqis are confronting food insecurity, and sizable numbers are adapting negative coping strategies to access food. Even more pressing than the affordability of food is the affordability and availability of housing. Still, a small but rising share of citizens positively assess the government’s efforts to create jobs and curb inflation. So, despite ongoing challenges, optimism about the future of the economy is on the rise, signifying the reversal of an otherwise downward trend that had been effect since 2013.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, and Survey
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

30. The Caliphate Complaint Box: Stories of Islamic State Governance in the Words of Those Who Lived It

Author:
Daniel Milton and Muhammad Al-'Ubaydi
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the summer of 2014, the terrorist organization known as the Islamic State declared itself the governing entity of a vast swath of territory across Iraq and Syria encompassing millions of people, who were now ‘citizens’ of the Islamic State. Although it is well-known that the group’s governance approach carried with it the strict and sometimes violent implementation of their interpretation of Islamic law, there has been comparatively limited evidence regarding the nature of the complaints that arose during this time. This report relies on 396 previously unreleased primary source documents created by both members and civilians of the Islamic State highlighting problems encountered under the group’s governing eye—the Caliphate Complaint Box. These documents provide a vivid first-hand account of the challenges people faced living under the Islamic State. They demonstrate that, despite the group’s propaganda effort to highlight its establishment of a just society with a well-functioning government, the reality on the ground was much different. Given that any single analysis or summary cannot capture all the nuance included in these documents, the Combating Terrorism Center is releasing all of these documents through its website in an effort to promote future research on the Islamic State. However, this report does highlight some of the initial findings from an analysis of the material: The Islamic State faced regular bureaucratic challenges. Despite the promise of being different than other forms of government, the Islamic State struggled to keep track of paperwork and people, at times leading to confusion and disillusionment among those living under its control. Women living in the caliphate faced an uphill battle. Although perhaps not surprising, these documents drive home the inequity faced by women in the caliphate when it came to resolving issues of concern. Several complaints show women having to repeatedly seek help in order to provide for their families after losing husbands. Additionally, the documents contain multiple examples of men in positions of power targeting women with abuse. Citizens suffered raids and harsh treatment by both religious and security-oriented police. The laws of the Islamic State were strict, but these documents show that the execution of justice could be both harsh and uneven. People living in the caliphate might find their children hit during a raid or their vehicle confiscated at a checkpoint without a clear indication as to why or what the resolution would be. The Islamic State military bureaucracy faced challenges in recruiting, equipping, and managing its forces. The Islamic State was a group formed through military conquest. The Complaint Box documents show that, despite these successes against an array of external adversaries, the group’s military wing struggled with issues, including but not limited to the production of military weapons, leadership of training units and battlefield forces, and putting soldiers in the right units and places.
Topic:
Terrorism, Governance, Women, Islamic State, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria