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921. Iraq and the Gulf States: The Balance of Fear

Author:
Jon B. Alterman
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iraq's Persian Gulf neighbors supported the U.S. invasion of Iraq in order to preserve the status quo—a weak and self-absorbed Iraq—rather than to impose a new one. However, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and its aftermath have not brought stability to the Gulf States as much as they have shifted the most serious challenges from external threats (of a hostile Baghdad) to internal threats (the threat of conflict spillover from Iraq). Kuwait fears the growth of Iranian influence in Iraq and the possibility that Iraqi Shia unrest will spill across its own borders. Although many Kuwaitis question the wisdom and capacity of the United States in managing Iraq's internal problems, Kuwait has provided significant support to U.S. military action in Iraq and the country's reconstruction efforts. Qatar has supported U.S. military actions in Iraq by hosting the U.S. Central Command but still maintains the perception of nonalignment. For example, Doha hosts prominent former Iraqi Baathists, not to mention Saddam's own family members. The interest of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Iraq is secondary to its concern over Iran, with which it has a long-standing dispute over ownership of three islands in the Gulf. The unresolved dispute with Tehran over the islands heightens the UAE's concerns about the rising Iranian influence in Iraq. To bolster its relationship with the United States, the UAE offered training to hundreds of Iraqi troops and police recruits in 2004–2005, hosted the first Preparatory Group Meeting for the International Compact with Iraq in September 2006, and funded reconstruction efforts in Iraq through the United Nations and the World Bank. On post-Saddam regional security issues, member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) seem to be more “market takers” than “market makers,” showing little inclination to shape the nature of a larger and potentially more powerful neighbor. Instead, they are focused on immediate choices for calibrating a proper relationship with Washington in a way that accommodates many other important relationships.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Kuwait, Tehran, Baghdad, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Persia

922. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Author:
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of Iran delivers a keynote address and participates in a question and answer session moderated by John H. Coatsworth, Acting Dean, School of International and Public Affairs.
Topic:
Human Rights, Islam, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

923. The Politics of Iran's Assembly of Experts after Meshkini

Author:
Mahjoob Zweiri and Ramzy Mardini
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The recent death of Ayatollah Ali Meshkini effectively created a vacuum that was bound to lead to an ideological and political clash among Iran’s power players. Meshkini was the first and only chairman of the Assembly of Experts, objectively Iran’s most powerful institution. He has kept its inherent powers at bay to the desires of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But now that has changed and Meshkini’s passing, with the recent victory of Hashemi Rafsanjani as his successor, has come at a time when the Islamic Republic is witnessing a socio-political redefinition in its conservative establishment. The ambitions of Iran’s old and new elitists have led to a political confrontation in filling Meshkini’s vacuity, a struggle that may have changed Iranian discourse, as we know it. Though this event is little known and hardly emphasized in media circles in the West, the politics leading up to Rafsanjani’s victory over the ultra-conservatives should be of great interest to those in discussion with Iran over its nuclear program and involvement in Iraq, particularly the United States. This article analyzes the Assembly’s role and significance within the Iranian institutional realm as well as depicts the candidates and politics that shaped this historic dilemma.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Nuclear Power, and Domestic politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

924. Brazil's Nuclear Policy. From Technological Dependence to Civil Nuclear Power

Author:
Daniel Flemes
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Since March 2006 Brazil has been the ninth country to control the full nuclear fuel cycle. While the U.S. government bashes the uranium enrichment activities in Iran, it has come to an arrangement with the uranium enrichment in its backyard after transitional diplomatic tensions. As signer of the Non-Proliferation Treaty Brazil has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful use. This article focuses on the political motives and objectives connected with the domination of this key technology. Brasilia has been striving for regional leadership and participation in international decision making processes. In historical perspective the Brazilian enrichment procedure marks the liberation from the technological U.S. dependence. Brazil seems to be on the way to establish itself as a civil nuclear power in international relations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Energy Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Brazil, and South America

925. "Democratic Bomb": Failed Strategy

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Instead of treating nuclear weapons and materials as problems wherever they exist, the Bush administration has pursued a “democratic bomb” strategy, bending nonproliferation rules for friendly democracies and refusing to negotiate directly with “evil” nondemocratic regimes such as North Korea and Iran. Yet regime change and democratization cannot solve major proliferation challenges in the necessary timeframe and actually can make them worse. Nonproliferation should take precedence over democratization. Universal rules remain essential and must be invigorated, which requires cooperation with major powers that differ on democracy.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Iran and North Korea

926. The Bottom Line on Iran: The Costs and Benefits of Preventive War versus Deterrence

Author:
Justin Logan
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
It appears increasingly likely that the Bush administration's diplomatic approach to Iran will fail to prevent Iran from going nuclear and that the United States will have to decide whether to use military force to attempt to delay Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability. Some analysts have already been promoting air strikes against Iran, and the Bush administration has pointed out repeatedly that the military option is “on the table.” This paper examines the options available to the United States in the face of a prospective final diplomatic collapse.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

927. Iran's Nuclear Program: America's Policy Options

Author:
Ted Galen Carpenter
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Although it is possible that negotiations between the leading powers in the international community and Iran may produce a settlement to the vexing issue of Iran's nuclear program, it is more likely that those negotiations will fail. If that happens, U.S. policymakers face a set of highly imperfect options.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, America, Iran, and Middle East

928. AsiaSource Interview with Karim Sadjadpour on Iran's Nuclear Aspirations

Author:
Nermeen Shaikh
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In this interview, Karim Sadjadpour, the International Crisis Group's Iran analyst, discusses the possible outcome of the present impasse between the United States and Iran on the latter's nuclear aspirations. Mr Sadjadpour has written on Iranian society and politics, Iran's nuclear program, Iran-Iraq relations, and U.S.-Iran relations. He is a regular contributor to BBC World and National Public Radio, and has also published pieces in the Washington Post, International Herald Tribune, New Republic, and others. This interview was conducted the day after the Asia Society event "Understanding Iran's Nuclear Aspirations: Pragmatism or Brinkmanship?" on March 28, 2006.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

929. Iran, its Neighbours and the Regional Crises

Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The Middle East is bedevilled by crises. The war between Hizbullah and Israel, the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, the instability in Iraq and the dispute over Iran's nuclear programme create a climate of deep unease. Iran is involved in all these crises, to a greater or lesser degree, and its regional role is significant and growing.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

930. The Smarter U.S. Option: A Full Summit with Iran

Author:
David Cortright and George A. Lopez
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
The escalating crisis between Iran and the United States belongs on the bilateral summit table, not at the United Nations Security Council. This is true even if Iran rejects the current multilateral incentive package of the big powers. Months of threats and brinkmanship by both nations illustrate the need for face-to-face, behind-closed-doors diplomacy.
Topic:
United Nations, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East