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1141. Sectarian violence: Pakistan's greatest security threat?

Author:
Huma Yusuf
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Pakistan is experiencing a sharp resurgence in sectarian violence. Most frequently, such violence involves clashes between members of the two main sects of Islam – Sunnis and Shias – but violent incidents between the Barelvi and Deobandi sub-sects of Sunni Islam are also on the rise. The heightened frequency and brutality of Sunni-Shia clashes threaten national security – Pakistan's is the second-largest Shia population in the world after Iran – as well as bilateral relations with Iran and the regional power dynamic vis-à-vis Saudi Arabian influence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia

1142. Iranian nuclear weapons: a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Author:
Mariano Aguirre
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The debate about the Iranian nuclear programme has heated up over recent months, with the danger that the situation could get out of control and violence may erupt. Currently, the main threatis an escalation of violence between Iran and the U.S. Strategically, an attack will further decrease U.S. legitimacy in a region already in turmoil and will isolate Israel even further. The consequencesof these processes are both serious and unpredictable.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

1143. Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
The authors of Why Civil Resistance Works present empirical evidence that, contrary to conventional wisdom, nonviolent resistance campaigns succeed at overthrowing regimes twice as often as violent campaigns, even in cases of a highly repressive state. Erica Chenoweth, an assistant professor of government at Wesleyan University, and Maria Stephan, a strategic planner with the U.S. Department of State, raise an original question and then employ quantitative and qualitative methods to reach their surprising findings. Unlike previous studies that focus solely on either violent or nonviolent campaigns, this book asks which type of campaigns are more successful at overthrowing regimes, ousting occupations, or facilitating secessions. The authors analyze 326 violent and nonviolent campaigns between 1900 and 2006 , and they offer more in-depth study of the Iranian Revolution ( 1977 – 1979 ), the First Palestinian Intifada (1987 – 1992 ), the Philippine People ' s Power Movement ( 1983 – 1986 ), and the Burmese Uprising ( 1988 – 1990 ) — providing a range of scenarios where violent and nonviolent campaigns succeeded, partially succeeded, or failed. The authors de fi ne a successful campaign as one that discernibly results in the achievement of its own stated goals of regime change, anti-occupation, or secession within a year of peak activities.
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

1144. A Nuclear-free Middle East - Just Not in the Cards

Author:
Liviu Horovitz and Roland Popp
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
A scheduled conference to promote a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East has renewed hopes for nuclear disarmament in this unstable region, if only innovative diplomacy could take advantage of the current shifts. However, a realistic assessment suggests that optimism is unwarranted. Fundamental strategic considerations related to Iran's nuclear program, Israel's atomic options, and the region's ingrate security architecture remain nearly insurmountable hurdles. Therefore, policymakers should focus first on attaining a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Topic:
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1145. Türkiye'nin Ortadoğu Politikası

Author:
Kemal İnat
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
Turkish foreign policy toward the Middle East has confronted with more and novel security challenges in 2012. The problematic issues related to Arab revolutions of 2011 have already had negative repercussions for Ankara. As a result of diverging policy choices toward the Arab revolutions, these conflicting issues caused more strained relations between Turkey and its neighbors in the region. Regional actors divided over how to respond to political deadlocks in the Middle East. While Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have sided together, Iran, Syria and the central government of Iraq have made their policies jointly. This very division between the regional actors has increased the security risks within the Middle East. These two camps have particularly conflicting policy agendas and as a result, they have become part of a “proxy war” in Syria which constitutes the biggest security threat to the whole region. Despite the deteriorating situation in Syria and its own tense political environment domestically, Turkey, has continued to strengthen its economic relations with the Middle Eastern capitals except Damascus. It was partly a result of this policy that Turkey's export toward the Middle East increased significantly.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Damascus, and Ankara

1146. İran 2012

Author:
Murat Yeşiltaş
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
The Arab Spring has resulted in a shift in the nature of Iran's regional foreign policy from a traditional 'resistance' strategy to a 'new engagement' approach. The new approach aims to strike a balance between strengthening cooperation with states in the region such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia and containing threats through maintaining traditional relations with ideological movements. In addition to the new strategic engagement policy, however, the nuclear issue has been constrained Iran's real economic and foreign policy capacity during 2012. The deepening economic crisis and rising inflation rates have also negatively affect Iran's domestic affairs and caused a new fragmentation among the conservative block. The legislative election held on March 2012 was the best example to understand this separation in Iranian domestic politics. In this article, it is analysed Iranian bilateral and regional relations by particularly focusing on its position regarding Arab Spring, nuclear issue and regional developments during 2012.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Iran, Arabia, and Egypt

1147. İsrail 2012

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
The year 2012 was a critical year for Israel because of the political change in Egypt. Israeli relations with Turkey were also affected as the tension experienced in the region on social change shaken trust among neighbors. Tel Aviv holds that the uprisings in the Arab world signal continuous collapse of authoritarian regimes and thus inevitably pave the way for the rise of Islamic movements. Since the beginning of the uprisings in the Middle East, Israeli decision-makers remained on alert. Israel was directed to find new actors to resolve its loneliness in the region. These actors later appeared as Greece, Cyprus, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Their common feature is that all of these countries' relations with Turkey are somehow problematic. For Israel developing relationships with these countries also means cornering Turkey. On the other hand, there were also differences of opinion between the U.S. and Israel emerged in 2012 that should be noted. Indeed, 2012 saw that the seemingly unshakable alliance between the U.S. and Israel could in fact be in trouble following the two's differing responses to Iran's nuclear power ambitions. The latter issue showed that profound differences of opinion may well surface in the near future.
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, Azerbaijan, Egypt, and Cyprus

1148. Iran's Internal Politics: The Supreme Leader Grows Ever Lonelier at the Top

Author:
Barbara Slavin and Yasmin Alem
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As the nuclear standoff between Iran and much of the rest of the world deepens, Iranian domestic politics are in turmoil. Trying to reduce endemic conflict within the system, the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has succeeded in recent years in expelling discordant voices and closing off institutional loopholes for dissent.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran

1149. The day after Iran goes nuclear: Implications for NATO

Author:
Jean-loup Samaan
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
On 8 November 2011 a new International Atomic Energy Agency report on nuclear verification in Iran was circulated to the Agency's Board of Governors and the UN Security Council. In a 12-page appendix, the IAEA gave information with an unprecedented level of detail on the military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program, including projects that have been under way for more than a decade now.
Topic:
NATO, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran and United Nations

1150. The Evolution of Turkish Foreign Policy in the Middle East

Author:
Henri J. Barkey
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The Evolution of Turkish Foreing Policy in the Middle East is written by Henri J. barkey from Lehigh University. The article analysis Turkish foreign policy since the AK Party assumed power and reveals three distinct phases, especially in regard to the Middle East. Lehigh Üniversitesi’nden Henri J. Barkey’nin kaleme aldığı The Evolution of Turkish Foreing Policy in the Middle East Türkiye’nin AK Parti hükümeti dönemindeki dış politikasını üç ayrı evreye ayırarak analiz etmekte ve özellikle Ortadoğu’da izlediği siyasetin gelişimini değerlendirmektedir.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Iran, Malaysia, Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Tunisia