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621. WILL WITHDRAWING TIES TO VENEZUELA’S REPRESSIVE REGIME PROTECT OR HARM HUMAN RIGHTS?

Author:
Gina Lei Miller, Andrew Vonasch, and Ryan Welch
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Food and medicine shortages, hyperinflation, and severe debt all loom large over Venezuelans—those who remain in the country anyway. Over 2 million citizens have fled the country since 2014. Those who cannot or do not wish to leave face yet another challenge to their health and wellbeing: an increasingly authoritarian and repressive government. In 2017, the world responded to the crisis in Venezuela by withdrawing ties to the regime. The Mercosur trade bloc suspended Venezuela, and the country currently faces expulsion from the Organization of American States (OAS). Both organizations cite anti-democratic policies and human rights abuses as grounds for the country’s suspension and possible expulsion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, United Nations, European Union, and Repression
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, North Korea, South America, and Venezuela

622. THE LARGER IMPLICATIONS OF THE OIL ATTACKS IN SAUDI ARABIA

Author:
Navin Bapat
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Drone attacks allegedly by Houthi rebels this past weekend on the Abqaiq facility and the Khurais oil field effectively knocked out five million barrels of processed crude oil from the world market. If this number doesn’t sound impressive, it amounts to about 5% of the world’s energy supply. Although the Iranian-supported Houthi rebels have been targeting Saudi Arabia in retaliation for their participation in the civil war in Yemen, this attack is different. Knocking out this critical facility will potentially cause prices to rise significantly for almost every commodity due to the reduction of global energy supplies. Since energy influences the price of transportation, which in turn influences the price of food and other commodities, this may cause prices of goods and services of all types to rise globally. Recent estimates suggest that the price of oil may rise from $60 to over $100 per barrel. That is an enormous shock that will be felt worldwide.
Topic:
Oil, Drones, Houthis, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

623. Iran Looking East: An Alternative to the EU?

Author:
Annalisa Perteghella
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In February 2018, anticipating the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared a policy of “preferring East over West”, thus paving the way for deeper cooperation with Asian powers such as China, Russia, and India. Differently from the “Look East” policy promoted during the presidency of Ahmadinejad (2005-2013), the current Iranian strategy is not only functional to escape the US-led isolation, but it rather seems devoted to the consolidation of a block of power which can commit to security and economic schemes in alternative to the Western-dominated ones. This ISPI report aims to answer few crucial questions: Which are the major initiatives promoted within the Iran’s “Look East 2.0” strategy? To what extent will Tehran succeed in creating a solid Eastern block? What will be the influence of the wider geopolitical context? And finally, what role is left for the EU?
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and India

624. Countering Hybrid Warfare: So What for the Joint Force?

Author:
Sean Monaghan
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Hybrid threats and hybrid warfare may occur at the same time, prosecuted by the same adversary, as part of an intense revisionist campaign or during war. For example, the current conflict in eastern Ukraine might be viewed as an example of hybrid warfare that is taking place within a wider Russian campaign of regional revisionism and global influence. Likewise, Iranian proxy militia fighting hybrid wars in Syria and Iraq, and against Israel, are part of a wider regional revisionist challenge. Alternatively, any future large-scale war is likely to involve hybrid warfare operations, in parallel with hybrid threats to the homeland. The challenge will be to fight both in parallel.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Proxy War, Hybrid Warfare, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

625. US-Iran Showdown Begins in Iraq

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Ktaib Hizballah, with its political, military, economic and mafia-like aspects, is the most potent enemy of the US and its allies in Iraq today.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

626. Forecasting the Mideast in 2020

Author:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel must be ready to tackle Iran militarily on its own and fight a pre-emptive war with Hizballah.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

627. The Russian Role in World Affairs: A View from Israel

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It would undoubtedly serve Israel’s interest for Russia to draw closer to the US on a wide range of issues, and above all, on Iran.
Topic:
Hegemony, Strategic Stability, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

628. American Sanctions and Military Action against Iran

Author:
Udi Levi
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A critical point has been reached where sanctions and military conflict connect. Tehran needs and seeks a limited military confrontation with the West in order to shore-up its legitimacy at home.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Sanctions, Conflict, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

629. Through a Different Lens: The Mideast as Seen from Doha

Author:
Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
At a recent conference on the Mideast economy in Doha, which included the participation of Israeli scholars, discussions highlighted changes in the regional balance of power. Acceptance of Assad’s rule in Syria is growing, but so are questions about how Syria’s rehabilitation will be financed. And some Iranians are signaling that Tehran is willing to make political compromises to alleviate economic pressures.
Topic:
Economics, Leadership, Political stability, Conflict, and Academia
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Syria

630. Protests in Iran and Trump’s Maximum Pressure Campaign

Author:
Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
America must provide Iranian demonstrators with access to the Internet to bolster the protests.
Topic:
Governance, Social Movement, Leadership, Conflict, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America