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1371. Extended Deterrence and Iran

Author:
Shahram Chubin
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Strategic Insights
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Conflict
Abstract:
Despite nearly seven decades of Nuclear weapons, (NWs) and four decades of Cold war in which they figured prominently, we still do not know very much about, or with any degree of assurance, what NWs can and cannot do beyond create widespread destruction. Questions about deterrence, extended deterrence and the political utility of NWs and whether these are general propositions/ laws or culturally or state specific, cannot be reliably answered.
Topic:
Cold War and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

1372. Strategic Reassurance if Iran "Goes Nuclear": A Framework and Some Propositions

Author:
Lewis A. Dunn
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Strategic Insights
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Conflict
Abstract:
Faced with continuing uncertainties about Iran's nuclear weapon ambitions, reassurance and deterrence have figured prominently in our discussions of Gulf and wider Middle East security. During this workshop, presentations also have addressed what may yet be done in an attempt to influence Iran's nuclear weapons calculus as talks begin between the P - 5 + 1 and Iran. My presentation seeks to address issues of strategic reassurance if Iran crosses the nuclear weapon threshold.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

1373. Constitutional Politics in the Middle East

Author:
Ramin Moschtaghi
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
The book is a collection of essays contributing to comparative studies on the constitutional systems of Middle Eastern countries, with particular reference to Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, and Turkey. While the first four essays – by Darling, Arjomand, Brown, and Mayer – provide a comparative and general analysis of their respective topics, the last four essays – by Shambayat, Bilgin, Rubin, and Arato – are country case studies. The authors are mostly scholars of political and social science; Linda Darling is a historian and Ann Elizabeth Mayer is the sole lawyer among the authors. The impressive list of authors includes internationally recognized experts. Although there are a number of publications on the constitutional law of most of the individual states examined here, the unique feature of this book is that it is one of the first, or even the first, which describes the constitutional development in a large variety of Islamic, Middle Eastern countries in a broad comparative perspective, highlighting peculiarities, similarities, and problems of the different legal systems.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

1374. Perspectives from Fragile Crescent: A South Asia Crisis Simulation

Author:
Steven J. Tomisek, Christopher S. Robinson, and Kenneth Kligge
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Obama administration has arguably inherited the toughest national security environment since the end of World War II. Instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan has propelled South Asia to the top of a U.S. national security agenda already crowded with a long list of major problems that includes North Korea, Iran, and Iraq. The political, security, and economic trends in Afghanistan and Pakistan have taken a turn for the worse, as the two countries confront an increasingly violent Taliban-led insurgency and al Qaeda–linked militant jihadist groups. To make matters even worse, Pakistan's relations with India have been damaged by the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks.
Topic:
Political Violence, National Security, War, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Iran, South Asia, North Korea, and Mumbai

1375. Afghanistan: What Now for Refugees?

Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As international efforts focus on the worsening insurgency in Afghanistan, the issues of refugee return and the mobility of Afghans in their country and around the region have been overshadowed. Meeting the needs of returnees and addressing population movements remain an essential part of finding a solution to the conflict. These issues must be better integrated into policymaking. They play a role in many of the sources of discontent that undermine the legitimacy of the government in Kabul – from land disputes to rising crime. Migration has a positive side as well since t hose living abroad sustain much of the economy, but a comprehensive approach to displacement and migration is needed, including better coordination among Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, if the benefits are to start outweighing the risks.
Topic:
Security, War, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iran, and Kabul

1376. Iran's Presidential Election: The Failure of Managed Functionalism

Author:
Güneş Murat Tezcür
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Iran's elections have historically managed factional conflict without altering the institutional distribution of power. Against this political background, the June 2009 elections stand out as a unique event. Elections that once served to manage conflict have now become a destabilizing factor. While the regime appears to have forcefully silenced the widespread post-election protests, the 2009 uprising shows the new limits of elections in managing factional conflict, which spread out to include Iran's people. The regime grossly miscalculated not just the effects of massive public participation in the 2009 elections, but also the buildup of widespread grievances among a substantial section of Iran's citizens. The protests have aggravated the ruling elite's fear of a "velvet revolution" instigated by the West. Consequently, post-election negotiations between Iran and the Western powers regarding Iran's nuclear program are likely to meet significant obstacles, since recent events have further diminished confidence between Iran and its antagonists.
Political Geography:
Iran

1377. Turkey's Emerging Role as a Mediator on Iran's Nuclear Activities

Author:
Rahman G. Bonab
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The international community is worried about the security implications of Iran's nuclear activities. Although it has been argued that Iran is very close to make a nuclear bomb, the results of the latest official reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and some American intelligence institutions demonstrate that Iran is not reluctant to consider the concerns of the international community in its decisions. One of the main policies of great powers is to cooperate with regional actors, like Turkey, to persuade Iran to be more flexible in its nuclear policy and particularly in its uranium enrichment activity. The historical mistrust between Iran and the great powers reinforces the necessity of having other regional actors act as mediators and countries like Turkey can play an important role in this context. The governing AKP's mediation policy in the regional level is a catalyst to Turkey's attempts to mediate between Iran and the 5+1 Group, although mediation can have its own difficulties.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
America, Iran, and Turkey

1378. Kasra Naji, Ahmadinejad: The Secret History of Iran's Radical Leader

Author:
Arshin Adib-Moghaddam
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
California, University of California Press, 2008, 298 pp., ISBN: 978-0-520-25663-7.
Topic:
History
Political Geography:
Iran

1379. Containing Iran?: Avoiding a Two-Dimensional Strategy in a Four-Dimensional Region

Author:
Dalia Dassa Kaye and Frederic M. Wehrey
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
One of the most significant effects of the Iraq war is Iran's seemingly unprecedented influence and freedom of action in regional affairs, presenting new strategic challenges for the United States and its regional allies. Although Middle Eastern governments and the United States are in general agreement about diagnosing Tehran's activism as the war's most alarming consequence, they disagree on how to respond. The conventional U.S. view suggests that a new Arab consensus has been prompted to neutralize and counter Tehran's rising influence across the region in Gaza, the Gulf, Iraq, and Lebanon. Parallels to Cold War containment are clear. Indeed, whether consciously or unwittingly, U.S. policy has been replicating features of the Cold War model by trying to build a ''moderate'' Sunni Arab front to bolster U.S. efforts to counter Iranian influence. Despite signals that the Obama administration intends to expand U.S. engagement with Iran, the foundations of containment are deeply rooted and engender bipartisan backing from Congress. Even if the Obama administration desires to shift U.S. policy toward Iran, containment policies will be difficult to overturn quickly; if engagement with Iran fails, reliance on containment will only increase.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, Arabia, Gaza, and Lebanon

1380. Increasing the Focus on Iran's Corruption

Author:
Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although Iran has formally accepted the U.S. offer to meet on October 1, expectations are low, particularly since Tehran has made clear that the nuclear issue is not negotiable. The United States and its allies have already begun to prepare for the possibility of failed negotiations by developing potential sanctions packages that could be imposed on Tehran. Unfortunately, due to Chinese and Russian opposition, pushing a strong resolution through the UN Security Council appears unlikely. Washington, however, can adopt other multilateral approaches to increase the pressure on Iran, such as ramping up its anticorruption enforcement efforts against companies doing business in Iran, and encouraging other countries to do the same. Given the widespread corruption in Iran, and the powerful anticorruption legislation in place in many countries worldwide, this approach could have a significant impact on the regime.
Topic:
Corruption and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Iran