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31. New Poll Sheds Light on Saudi Views of Israel-Hamas War

Author:
Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
AWashington Institute poll conducted from November 14 to December 6, a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Saudi citizens measured how Saudi attitudes have shifted due to the Israel-Hamas war. According to responses, the Saudi popular attitude towards the outcome of the war is clear: the overwhelming majority (91%) express agreement with the statement that “despite the destruction and loss of life, this war in Gaza is a win for the Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims.” And as for the role of the broader Arab world, almost all (96%) agree with the proposal that “Arab countries should immediately break all diplomatic, political, economic, and any other contacts with Israel, in protest against its military action in Gaza.” Polling during a war is likely to produce more volatile results as circumstances shift quickly on the ground—during the current polling period, for instance, the Israel-Hamas war had several major shifts, including a temporary ceasefire from November 24-30 and the subsequent expansion of Israel’s incursions into southern Gaza. However, comparisons with Saudi polling fielded in August can help provide a barometer as to just how sharply this conflict has, at least temporarily, shifted certain attitudes, and how little it has moved others. While Hamas as a movement remains unpopular among the majority of Saudis—in contrast to a new trend of widespread popular support in countries like Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt—just 16% of Saudis say that “Hamas should stop calling for the destruction of Israel, and instead accept a permanent two-state solution to the conflict based on the 1967 borders.” Nor do most believe that Hamas’s attack on October 7 targeted Israeli civilians—the overwhelming majority of Saudis (95%) responded that Hamas did not actually kill civilians when asked about whether they believed the Hamas killing of civilians was against Islam. This view is widespread across the eight countries polled by TWI, and similar results appear in a recently released poll of Palestinians from PSR. There, the overwhelming majority reported that they had not seen any videos of Hamas members committing atrocities, and only 10% of Palestinians (17% of Gazans and 5% of West Bankers) stated that they believed that Hamas committed war crimes in the current war, in comparison to 95% who say the same about Israel. While the majority of Saudis continue to express a negative opinion of Hamas, the Israel-Hamas war has generated a significant boost in its popularity. There has been a thirty point shift in positive attitudes towards Hamas, from just 10% in August to 40% in November/December. Responses in the most recent poll, alongside those in 2014 and 2021, demonstrate the increased popularity Hamas achieves among some Saudis during or in the immediate aftermath of conflict between Hamas and Israel, along with its likely disappearance over time. In the aftermath of the 2021 Hamas-Israel conflict, for instance, five years of steadily decreasing popularity in Saudi Arabia suddenly reversed, though just to a quarter (23%) of the total population.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Conflict, Hamas, and Polls
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Gulf Nations

32. New Bahrain Poll Reveals Support for Russia, Entente with Iran, Split on Israel

Author:
David Pollock
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On Iran, Bahrainis (especially among the country’s Shia majority) mostly favor rapprochement, and oppose military action or cooperation with Israel against it. Popular acceptance of business ties with Israel is steady, at around 40% in this small yet strategic island nation that joined the Abraham Accords in late 2020. But other measures show strong anti-Israel sentiment, probably in part because the survey was taken during Ramadan, a time of heightened tension with the Palestinians.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Public Opinion, Polls, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Israel, Bahrain, and Gulf Nations

33. Role Conceptions and Leadership Rivalry in the Middle East: Transforming Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Relations

Author:
Muhammed Yakup İnan
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
In recent years, the Middle East has often been the subject of foreign interventions and the interests of superpowers. The effect of internal dynamics was pushed to the background in regional developments as a result of this situation. It is very important, however, to analyze the Middle East by understanding the power struggles between the regional powers Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran. This article examines the leadership struggle and role conceptualizations between the regional powers of the Middle East with a focus on the relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It argues that Turkey is not a rival to Saudi Arabia's national role conceptions in the Gulf region, but rather a favorable partner when it comes to Gulf security and economic relations. Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia will follow a positive course with mutual normalization steps and Turkey's export-led growth and regional cooperation strategies.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Leadership, Economy, Regional Power, and Role Conceptions
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

34. China’s Grand Vision and the Persian Gulf

Author:
Anoushiravan Ehteshami
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
China’s engagement with Asian regions beyond its geographical periphery has grown exponentially since the 1990s and this is nowhere more evident than in West Asia and the Persian Gulf subregion. While energy drove China’s early interactions with the Gulf states, within two decades after the Cold War the relationships had evolved into much tighter networks of partnerships. China’s relations with the Gulf states, however, has not been uniform and the case studies of the United Arab Emirates and Iran highlight the complexities of China’s strategy in this subregion and the ways in which it actively pursues its diverse set of interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

35. The GCC and Geopolitics: Navigating Challenges and Maximizing Influence

Author:
Urs Unkauf
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The Gulf region is one of the most important geostrategic regions in the world. It comprises the Persian Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman. The region is of great importance to the global economy, being home to one of the largest oil and gas reserves in the world. The Gulf region is also an important hub for international trade and shipping. The Persian Gulf is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, connecting the region with Europe, Asia, and Africa (it is also adjacent to the Silk Road region). The ports of the Gulf region are important trans-shipment points for trade in oil, gas, and other commodities. In terms of security, the countries of the region are important stakeholders for Western, especially U.S. defense policies, and take a key role in the fight against terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Due to the foregoing, the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which was founded in May 1981, are playing an increasing role as actors in regional and international politics. Recognizing their vulnerability as hydrocarbon-dependent economies, the GCC countries have undertaken substantial efforts to diversify their revenue streams. They have shifted their focus towards sectors such as tourism, finance, technology, renewable energy, and manufacturing. Initiatives like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, UAE’s National Innovation Strategy, and Qatar’s National Vision 2030 have set ambitious goals to reduce reliance on oil and gas, foster innovation, and attract foreign investments. These strategies have not only led to the establishment of new industries but also facilitated job opportunities for the younger generation.
Topic:
Oil, Geopolitics, Trade, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

36. Kuwait Country Report 2022

Author:
Ghanim Alnajjar
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since 1962, Kuwait has been a relatively open country in terms of freedom of expression and political participation. Although political life in general has faced many challenges and interruptions, political culture is still present and influential. Notably, the Arab Barometer survey ended in June 2022, during a continuing political crisis in the Parliament, in deadlock with the government. The crisis manifested itself in the way several members of the Parliament boycotted the sessions, which led to a political deadlock of sorts. Since the latest elections held before the survey in 2020, the political crisis did witness a considerable escalation. This led, among other things, to a stagnated political process. Surprisingly, the Emir and Crown Prince gave an important speech on 22 June 2022, in which they both expressed their intention to call for early elections, and as such announced the dissolution of the Parliament. This procedure is not new since the Parliament was disbanded ten times out of 18 elections in the past. These reforms led to a general state of optimism in society, which positively impacted the election campaigns. The campaigns became less polarizing and less aggressive against the government. The Parliament was disbanded, and elections were held on 19 September 2022. Results brought new indicators that are worthy of highlighting, but which are outside the scope of the survey. It is likely that if the survey was delayed until after June, the results would have been different from the results that came in before the governmental reforms. It might be useful to conduct a second follow-up survey as soon as possible, even if it will be conducted through phone interviews, and be limited to certain questions only. In any case, the survey results are consistent with earlier surveys. There is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the government, especially in relation to some specific policies, like public education policies and anti-corruption measures. It is notable also that the government’s policies towards Covid-19 were evaluated positively. Moreover, certain cultural elements and concerns, especially in relation to gender, have showed some important changes worthy of more studies. The same applies to the economic situation. In spite of the generally negative economic circumstances, the overall trend towards the economy shows noticeable optimism. The survey also focused on questions related to the workforce and employment, being largely concentrated in the public sector, with less employed in the private sector. The survey shows the intensive use of social media platforms in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Politics, Governance, Media, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

37. The minilateral moment in the Middle East: An opportunity for US regional policy?

Author:
Jean-Loup Samaan
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “The Minilateral Moment in the Middle East: An Opportunity for US Regional Policy,” the Atlantic Council’s nonresident senior fellow Jean-Loup Samaan analyzes how regional powers are reconsidering the multilateral balance of their foreign policy arrangements, and the emerging implications for US Middle East policy. Over the past three years, the Middle East has experienced major intra-regional changes. After a decade of fierce competition between two blocs—one led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the other by Qatar and Turkey—both parties now seem willing to cooperate. One of the key features of this new regional environment, according to Samaan, has been the growth of so-called minilateral initiatives that regroup several countries on an ad hoc basis. Samaan also addresses how powers outside the region have embarked on a similar path of building relationships with countries in the Middle East. Russia’s recent attempt to build a similar framework with Turkey and Iran, he argues, provides evidence of how minilateralism is increasingly considered an effective instrument of regional diplomacy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Resilience, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

38. Misperceptions of OPEC Capability and Behavior: Unmasking OPEC Theater

Author:
David Kemp and Peter Van Doren
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the view of the American public, media, and politicians, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sets oil prices by adjusting the amount of crude oil its members produce. However, the geological and engineering realities of oil extraction, the inconclusive academic evidence on the relationship between OPEC production and oil prices, and the cheating on oil production quotas by OPEC members and lack of enforcement all indicate that OPEC is more a political club than an effective oil cartel. In fact, three key members—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—have oil production volatility similar to the United States over the past three decades. This implies that these three important and politically stable OPEC nations do not possess, or do not utilize, a unique short-term capability to alter their oil production to regulate oil prices. Altogether, the evidence suggests that the attention paid to OPEC is mostly about political benefits to both OPEC members and Western leaders, not an actual ability to control the oil market. The OPEC members use their oil production as an international bargaining chip and the perception of influence over the West to gain domestic legitimacy. Western leaders are happy to reciprocate by using OPEC as a scapegoat for unpleasant oil supply or demand shocks. Based on this picture of OPEC, U.S. concerns about OPEC behavior are unfounded and legislative proposals to punish OPEC are misguided.
Topic:
Economics, Oil, OPEC, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

39. Navigating climate change challenges amidst ambitious green policies in the Gulf countries

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The United Arab Emirates is hosting COP28 in Expo City Dubai from November 30 to December 12, 2023, the largest yearly gathering dedicated to tackling the phenomena of climate change, an urgent global crisis that transcends national borders and necessitates resolute international cooperation to prevent the harm it causes. Undoubtedly, the UAE's hosting of the conference, which has a long track record of efforts in combatting the effects of climate change and investing in clean energy, will provide momentum for Gulf states to lead climate action efforts at the regional and international levels. However, it is untrue that the issue of climate change has risen to the top of the Gulf states' priority list solely because of the COP28 summit. This has received much attention for over a decade because Gulf nations are among the countries most affected by climate change, so they must be at the forefront of countries fighting to prevent it.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Crisis Management, Energy, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Middle East, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

40. A new climate for peace: How Europe can promote environmental cooperation between the Gulf Arab states and Iran

Author:
Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The process of de-escalation between Iran and Gulf Arab states is fragile and could collapse if efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal fail. A platform for dialogue on climate and environmental security may be one of the few politically feasible ways to strengthen and sustain diplomatic channels between Iran and Gulf monarchies. The Middle East is very exposed to climate change and faces challenges including water scarcity, air pollution and sandstorms, rising temperatures, and extreme weather events. Europeans should proactively support a regional platform to address climate issues as a means of advancing their interests in de-escalation, asserting their influence in an increasingly multipolar region, and fulfilling climate and environmental security commitments. European initiatives should highlight the merits of regional cooperation, focusing on diplomacy, joint scientific research, capacity building, and strategic investment.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, and Gulf Nations