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11. Economic recovery and inflation

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing. The largest advanced economies are growing up to their potential, unemployment is systematically decreasing, the financial sector is more eager to lend, and its clients—to borrow. Rapidly growing asset prices signal the possibility of similar developments in other segments of the economy. In this new macroeconomic environment, central banks should cease unconventional monetary policies and prepare themselves to head off potential inflationary pressures.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Inflation, Macroeconomics, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

12. The 5th Africa Think Tank Summit

Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The 5th Africa Think Tank Summit opened in Accra, Ghana, on 5 April with a call on African leaders to provide “a visionary and transformative leadership” if African countries want to successfully tackle the youth unemployment issues on the continent.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Labor Issues, Youth, Capacity, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

13. Persistent Effects of Autonomous Demand Expansions

Author:
Daniele Girardi, Walter Paternesi Meloni, and Antonella Stirati
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The prevailing wisdom that aggregate demand shocks determine short-run cyclical fluctuations around a supply-determined equilibrium growth rate and an associated equilibrium unemployment rate (or NAIRU) has been called into question by various strands of literature over the last few decades. Specifically, a recently revived literature on hysteresis finds significant persistence in the effects of negative aggregate demand shocks (e.g. Blanchard et al. 2015; Fatás and Summers 2016; Martin et al. 2015). This paper aims to assess this tendency to return to a supply-determined potential output, independent of aggregate demand, after episodes of demand expansion. In line with the hysteresis literature, we assess the persistence of aggregate demand effects on key macroeconomic outcomes. However, in contrast with much of that literature, we assess whether persistence is detected also in instances of demand expansion. We study 94 episodes of demand expansion in 34 OECD countries between 1960 and 2015. We look at the sum of primary public expenditure and exports, a variable we call 'autonomous demand'. We define an expansion as a large yearly percentage increase in autonomous demand, ‘large’ meaning greater than a standard deviation above the country mean. We analyze the impact of these expansions on key macroeconomic outcomes in the subsequent decade, using various techniques to deal with endogeneity. We employ two main approaches: a dynamic two-way fixed-effects model, analogous to a standard difference-in-differences estimation; and a propensity score-based specification which explicitly models selection bias. We find a highly significant persistent effect on the GDP level: a one-off expansion in our autonomous demand variable by (an average of) 5% is associated 10 years later with a GDP level around 3% higher than in the control group, with no sign of mean reversion. We also document strong persistent effects on capital stock, employment and participation rates. Effects on productivity and the unemployment rate are also strong and quite persistent, but evidence regarding their permanence is more mixed. We do not find that expansions, on average, cause high or accelerating inflation. Our results lead us to ask whether hysteresis should be considered a distortion in the working of market economies that holds only in specific circumstances – as the mainstream literature has generally suggested – or whether it is, in fact, a pervasive phenomenon which holds most of the time.
Topic:
Economics, Inflation, Unemployment, and Capital Formation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?

Author:
Paul Davidson
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper provides critical comments on the Peter Temin - David Vines promotion of the basic Swan Diagram as (1) a policy tool to encourage any individual debtor nation experiencing balance of payment deficits to reduce its exchange rate in order to expand exports and reduce imports and (2) the Swan Diagram as a simple model for understanding Keynes’s General Theory for an Open Economy. This paper explains that the Swan Diagram is completely incompatible with Keynes’s analysis. Instead Keynes advocated that the onus should be placed on creditor nations to correct international payments imbalances and thereby promote economic expansion internationally. Keynes warned against any deficit nation adopting a policy that tries to achieve a balance in its international payments by following any policy designed to reduce imports and increase exports. Such a policy sends a contractionary force onto the international economy and tends to injure all trading partners.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Unemployment and Business Cycles

Author:
Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Mathias Trabandt
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model that accounts for key business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates, including labor market variables. In sharp contrast to leading New Keynesian models, wages are not subject to exogenous nominal rigidities. Instead we derive wage inertia from our specification of how firms and workers interact when negotiating wages. Our model outperforms the standard Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model both statistically and in terms of the plausibility of the estimated structural parameter values. Our model also outperforms an estimated sticky wage model.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Business, Economic Theory, Unemployment, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. A State-Dependent Model for Inflation Forecasting

Author:
Andrea Stella and James H. Stock
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We develop a parsimonious bivariate model of inflation and unemployment that allows for persistent variation in trend inflation and in the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. The model, which consists of five unobserved components including the trends) with stochastic volatility, implies a time-varying vector autoregression model for changes in the rates of inflation and unemployment. The implied backwards-looking Phillips curve has a time-varying slope that is steeper in the 1970s than in the 1990s. Pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiments indicate improvements upon univariate benchmarks. Since 2008, the implied Phillips curve has become steeper and the the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment has increased.
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Inflation, State Building, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Becoming (Un)employed and Life Satisfaction: Asymmetric Effects and Potential Omitted Variable Bias in Empirical Happiness Studies

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig and Markus Wilhelm
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
Becoming unemployed has negative effects on life satisfaction; a transition from unemployment to employment, however, has stronger positive effects in absolute terms. The asymmetry of the non-pecuniary effect indicates a potential “omitted variable bias” in previous empirical happiness studies.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Unemployment, and Happiness
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. The Unemployment Impact of Immigration in OECD Countries

Author:
Sébastien Jean and Miguel Jimenez
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
This paper assesses the consequences of immigration for natives' unemployment in OECD countries and investigates the role played by product and labour market policies in the economy's adjustment to immigration inflows. The estimations, combining a skill-level and an aggregate approach using data for males, cover eighteen OECD countries over the period 1984-2003. While no significant long-run impact is found, an increase in the share of immigrants in the labour force is estimated to raise temporarily natives' unemployment, over a period of approximately five to ten years. Anticompetitive product market regulations are found to increase both the magnitude and the persistence of this impact, while more stringent employment protection legislation magnifies its persistence, and a higher average replacement rate of unemployment benefits increases its magnitude.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Immigration, Developing World, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Making Trade Work: Straight Talk on Jobs, Trade, and Adjustment

Author:
Research and Policy Committee of the Committee for Economic Development
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
This report examines the benefits and challenges of developing an effective adjustment policy for workers who lose their jobs because of outsourcing or any other adverse effects of trade. The statement, approved by CED's Research and Policy Committee states, "The most important next step is to recognize that adjustment policy is vital to achieving free trade - which, in turn, is vital to the nation's economic future." The statement concludes that America needs to develop the national will to devise and fund an adjustment policy that will get to "yes" on trade.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Global Focus