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71. Digital Governance: Is Krishna a Glimpse of the Future?

Author:
Arshi Aadil, Alan Gelb, Anurodh Giri, and Kyle Navis
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The state of Andhra Pradesh is recognized as a leader in using technology to improve the delivery of public services, programs and subsidies. Many of its innovations were piloted in Krishna District, which has been visited by development agencies and delegations from many countries. This paper reports on research to better understand the functioning and effectiveness of its reforms to strengthen state capacity by digitalizing service delivery. Against the wider backdrop of the use of Aadhaar in India, it summarizes Andhra’s reforms, which go beyond those of most other jurisdictions in the measures taken to strengthen accountability, offer choice of service provider, and incorporate feedback loops using the vast amount of data generated by a real-time digital service system as well as beneficiary responses. It reports the results from surveys of beneficiaries who receive food rations through the Public Distribution System (PDS) and/or pensions, and on the response of landowners and tenant farmers to the digitization of land records, another important program. The results suggest strong support for the digitalization of these programs. The way in which the reforms have been implemented has indeed led to substantial improvements in delivery (as seen by beneficiaries) as well as, probably, significant fiscal savings. Is this case, then, a model for other Indian states and for other countries? Perhaps yes from a technology perspective; there are many lessons that apply to a wide range of programs and services and that others can usefully draw on. The picture is more complex from a political economy perspective, as suggested by some of the particular features of Andhra.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Reform, and Digitization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

72. Automation and a Changing Economy: Policies for Shared Prosperity

Author:
Alastair Fitzpayne, Conor Mckay, and Ethan Pollack
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Part I of this report, Automation and a Changing Economy: The Case for Action, explores how automation has impacted and will continue to impact the economic security and opportunity of the American worker. But technology is not destiny. The impact of innovation on the American worker is mediated by policies and institutions. We can choose to create an economy that: promotes technological progress; prepares workers to take advantage of the opportunities technology presents; supports those who are negatively impacted by automation return to stable work; and shares technology’s gains more broadly. These goals are achievable with the right support, but the policy structures currently in place are inadequate. This part of the report, Automation and a Changing Economy: Policies for Shared Prosperity, outlines a policy agenda for addressing these challenges and opportunities. Doing so requires an all-of-the-above approach, from targeted, specialized interventions to those with systems-level impact; from place-based policies to national-level reforms to safety net programs. The paper identifies four objectives that guide its recommendations
Topic:
Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Automation, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

73. Automation and a Changing Economy: The Case for Action

Author:
Alastair Fitzpayne, Conor Mckay, and Ethan Pollack
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Technology fuels our economy, captures our collective imaginations, and promises extraordinary possibilities. It permeates almost all aspects of our lives. From electrification and the internal combustion engine, to search engines and smartphones, technology has changed how we travel, access information, buy products, and communicate with each other. As technology changes our personal lives, it also changes work. For generations, economic change has replaced products, jobs, and industries with innovative new models. The American economy has transitioned from agrarian to industrial, service to digital, and with each evolution, America has prospered even as it grappled with the profound challenges of change. The American ideal embraces the promise that economic progress can create an inclusive society in which prosperity is broadly shared. Work is more than simply a way to earn a living. It gives structure, dignity, and purpose to our lives. For this reason, workers should not be treated as a cost of doing business but recognized for their productivity and creativity. For too many Americans, the promise of work is not being kept. New technologies are creating great wealth for some, but we are simultaneously experiencing historic income and wealth inequality. Without robust policies and strong institutions, new innovations risk exacerbating the economic insecurity and political and civil divides that we are experiencing today. Emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, and advanced robotics, have the potential to automate many tasks currently performed by workers. Historically, automation has been an important ingredient driving economic growth and progress. Automation has enabled us to feed a growing population while allowing workers to transition from subsistence farming to new forms of work. Automation helped move us from a craft system to mass production, from blue-collar to white-collar to “new-collar” work—with better work, higher wages, more jobs, and better living standards. Similar to past innovations, these new technologies offer the potential to help us meet human needs while supporting new jobs and industries never before imagined. However, automation can also have negative effects on individuals and communities. Those who lose their jobs suffer economic, social, and psychological hardship. Communities that relied on single industries that have been automated have struggled to recover. New jobs are being created, but their geographic distribution and skill requirements often make them inaccessible to the individuals and the communities where those whose jobs were lost. This dislocation has played a role in exacerbating America’s economic, political, geographic, and social divides. The answer to the dislocations that can result from automation should not be to stifle innovation. Policies and reforms should encourage both the development of new technologies and the promise of work. Workers need access to the opportunities technology creates. Policymakers and employers can help by providing access to skills training, ensuring the availability of good jobs, and improving the systems that are in place to help those who will transition from declining to growing occupations. While there are many unanswered questions about what the future holds, this report attempts to explain how automation impacts the labor market and how to better prepare American workers to benefit from the changes to come.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Automation, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

74. From Battlefront to Cyberspace: Demystifying the Islamic State’s Propaganda Machine

Author:
Asaad Almohammad and Charlie Winter
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This report offers a unique contribution to the literature by examining the Islamic State’s production, dissemination, and evaluation of propaganda in the months running up to its territorial collapse. Utilizing a range of materials collected in eastern Syria during the first nine months of 2018, namely audio-visual records and interviews, the authors inspected the administrative structure undergirding the group’s Central Media Directorate. Key responsibilities of this entity included interdepartmental oversight and monitoring, as well as media production and distribution. Focusing primarily on infrastructure concerning security and production, the study examines how the Islamic State cultivated a high degree of operational security, fluidity, and effectiveness. By assessing these trends during a period of existential external and internal pressure, the report demonstrates how the group ensured the continuance of its influence operations. Beyond highlighting the utility of its guiding methodology and the operational value of its findings, this investigation enabled the authors to outline how the Islamic State might traverse the post-proto-state phase of its history. Among other things, the report draws attention to the increasing ascendency of diwan al-amn al-‘am (Directorate of General Security), especially regarding its role in instilling operational opacity, maintaining archives, and managing personnel. Taken altogether, the findings show how the Islamic State sought to navigate through critical trade-offs, such as efficiency and security, particularly in the context of its media operations.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Communications, Media, Islamic State, Propaganda, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and Global Focus

75. The Future of Work 2.0: Navigating the Transition to New Possibilities

Author:
Aspen Institute
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Today’s leading businesses are dealing with a changing work environment that goes beyond artificial intelligence and robots. Instead, it encompasses the work machines and humans will do together. This report of the 2018 Roundtable, written by David Gibson, explores the Future of Work 2.0—focusing on how all stakeholders can realize the opportunities and possibilities of automation in the work landscape. It features a robust discussion on education, business structures, models of employment and leadership philosophies.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Communications, Employment, and Automation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

76. WMD Capabilities Enabled by Additive Manufacturing

Author:
Christopher Daase, Grant Christopher, Ferenc Dalnkoki-Veress, Miles A. Pomper, and Robert Shaw
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Additive Manufacturing (AM)—also known as 3D printing—is a rapidly emerging technology with growing relevance for the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their means of delivery. The rapid pace of AM development makes it increasingly difficult to keep track of AM’s potential effect on proliferation pathways. So far, studies addressing the issue have mainly focused on nuclear proliferation. This has created two major problems for policy makers. First, by the time governments are able to respond to specific AM-induced proliferation risks, those risks might already have been overtaken by newer developments. Second, by focusing on nuclear proliferation pathways, governments can fail to recognize AM’s relevance to other proliferation modalities, including chemical and biological weapons and, especially, the means of WMD delivery. This report addresses these shortcomings. As an innovative pilot study, this report provides a more comprehensive approach toward explaining latest AM developments and mitigating the risk of WMD proliferation. Effectively, this report is the first beyond-the-horizon assessment of the impact of AM developments not only on potential nuclear-weapons programs, but also on other WMD modalities and their delivery systems. For this project, Negotiation Design & Strategy (NDS) assembled an expert team of well-known AM and nonproliferation specialists from Germany, the United States, and the United Kingdom—three countries at the forefront of AM development. The research team’s contextual knowledge of AM facilities in Europe and the United States allowed for in-depth, on-the-ground interviews with US and European experts from the private sector, national laboratories, and research institutions. Interviews were augmented with an analytical deep dive into the latest AM developments, based on open-source technical literature, including academic papers and patents. The final report allows us to better forecast technological developments and raise awareness for the critical role that AM plays in international security. This report also demonstrates the importance of emerging technologies in the nonproliferation field and underscores the need for further research of this kind. Studies such as this are crucial to inform the broader examination of the relationship between technology and international security.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Manufacturing, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

77. Is Use of Cyber-Based Technology in Humanitarian Operations Leading to the Reduction of Humanitarian Independence?

Author:
Martin Stanley Searle
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
Technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) are being tested and adopted at a significant rate in humanitarian emergency response. However, the crossing of physical, biological, and cyber domains that characterises these technologies threatens the independence of humanitarian organisations. This is occurring in an environment in which the value and purpose of independence is already seriously questioned, both in practice, and in principle. This paper argues that the loss of independence stems from two related trends. First, several 4IR technologies are improving the capacity of humanitarian organisations to gather, synthesise, and analyse data, resulting in the production of information of increasingly strategic, political or military value. Second, the cyber component of these technologies simultaneously renders that information more vulnerable to unauthorised access by third parties with relevant political, military or economic agendas. This parallels the “capability/ vulnerability paradox” identified in literature discussing cybersecurity in relation to the military or so-called “smart cities”. In conflict and disaster settings, this paradox increases the likelihood of humanitarian actors functioning as appendages of other organisations. This loss of independence potentially has operational implications relating to access, and material impact on the ongoing debate around the importance of independence in humanitarian work.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Humanitarian Intervention, and Independence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

78. Rethinking Cybersecurity Strategy, Mass Effect, and States

Author:
James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Despite all the attention, cyberspace is far from secure. Why this is so reflects conceptual weaknesses as much as imperfect technologies. Two questions highlight shortcomings in the discussion of cybersecurity. The first is why, after more than two decades, we have not seen anything like a cyber Pearl Harbor, cyber 9/11, or cyber catastrophe, despite constant warnings. The second is why, despite the increasing quantity of recommendations, there has been so little improvement, even when these recommendations are implemented. These questions share an answer: the concepts underlying cybersecurity are an aggregation of ideas conceived in a different time, based on millennial expectations about governance and international security. Similarly, the internet of the 1990s has become “cyber,” a portmanteau term that encompassed the broad range of global economic, political, and military activities transformed by the revolution created by digital technologies. If our perceptions of the nature of cybersecurity are skewed, so are our defenses. This report examines the accuracy of our perceptions of cybersecurity. It attempts to embed the problem of cyber attack (not crime or espionage) in the context of larger strategic calculations and effects. It argues that policies and perceptions of cybersecurity are determined by factors external to cyberspace, such as political trends affecting relations among states, by thinking on the role of government, and by public attitudes toward risk. We can begin to approach the problem of cybersecurity by defining attack. While public usage calls every malicious action in cyberspace an attack, it is more accurate to define attacks as those actions using cyber techniques or tools for violence or coercion to achieve political effect. This places espionage and crime in a separate discussion (while noting that some states use crime for political ends and rampant espionage creates a deep sense of concern among states). Cyber attack does not threaten crippling surprise or existential risk. This means that the incentives for improvement that might motivate governments and companies are, in fact, much smaller than we assume. Nor is cyber attack random and unpredictable. It reflects national policies for coercion and crime. Grounding policy in a more objective appreciation of risk and intent is a first step toward better security.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Cybersecurity, and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

79. The Thirty Years Climate Warning: Climate Change, Security, and the Responsibility to Prepare

Author:
Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War coincided with the beginning of global awareness about the risks of climate change. This paper analyzes a thirty-year period beginning with the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, and ending in the present year of 2018. This period is characterized by unprecedented social, political, economic and climatic shifts, as well as first-time technological change-including improvements in our ability to predict future changes in the climate and their implications for international security.1 Importantly, while some of these changes have caught the international security community off-guard, we have seen the climate risks coming for many decades. The combination of unprecedented risks and foresight underscore a “Responsibility to Prepare.” This involves taking all possible steps to avoid an unmanageable climate, and climate-proofing of our security institutions at national, regional and international levels.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Cold War, Science and Technology, and International Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

80. Governing Land Investments: Do Governments Have Legal Support Gaps?

Author:
Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In the wave of efforts to encourage and support more “responsible” land investments, one aspect has been largely overlooked: are governments equipped with the legal and technical support needed to effectively negotiate and conclude investment contracts that lead to responsible outcomes? CCSI researched how host governments access legal support in the planning, negotiation, and monitoring of land investments, with a view to better understanding where legal support gaps for governments exist, and how these can be addressed by governments themselves, as well as by donors, support providers and investors. By scrutinizing “legal support gaps,” CCSI sought to identify possible weak links in global and national efforts to achieve more responsible land investments, as well as opportunities to encourage better practice. For example, legal support holds the potential—albeit not yet regularly realized—to be an entry point for incorporating international best practice and guidelines into negotiations and at other stages of the investment. The report also takes stock of how governments are negotiating and concluding land investments in practice, to determine where additional legal support could potentially improve outcomes for governments.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, and Land
Political Geography:
Global Focus