Number of results to display per page
Search Results
62. Approaches to Price Formation in Financialised Commodity Markets
- Author:
- Sophie van Huellen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- A recent debate over the financialisation of commodity markets has stimulated the development of approaches to price formation which incorporate index traders as a new trader category in commodity futures markets. I survey these new approaches by retracing their emergence to traditional price formation models and show that these new models arise from a synthesis between commodity arbitrage pricing and asset pricing theories in the tradition of Keynesian inspired hedging pressure models. Based on these insights, I derive testable hypotheses to provide guidance for a growing literature that seeks to empirically evaluate the effects of index traders on price discovery and risk management in commodity futures markets.
- Topic:
- Markets, Finance, Investment, Commodities, and Price
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
63. Uncertain Futures: Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculative Technologies
- Author:
- Jens Beckert and Richard Bronk
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- Dynamic capitalist economies are characterised by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. How then do economic actors form expectations and decide how to act despite this uncertainty? This paper focuses on the role played by imaginaries, narratives, and calculative technologies, and argues that the market impact of shared calculation devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of ‘narrative economics’ and a theory of fictional (rather than rational) expectations. When expectations cannot be anchored in objective probability functions, the future belongs to those with the market, political, or rhetorical power to make their models or stories count. The paper also explores the dangers of analytical monocultures and the discourse of best practice in conditions of uncertainty, and considers the link between uncertainty and some aspects of populism.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Capitalism, Innovation, Uncertainty, and Calculation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
64. Beyond International Standards: Mapping the Future of Capital Markets Regulation
- Author:
- Cally Jordan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- As a response to multiple financial shocks, international standards have disappointed. Consensus seeking has stifled innovation, perpetuating outdated regulatory concepts at a time of rapid market change. Markets are complex and idiosyncratic; they may not be receptive to efforts toward producing regulatory harmonization and convergence. Alternatives to international standard setting should be explored. Possibilities include fora for experimentation in capital markets regulation, the creation of a set of variegated model capital markets laws and a “restatement”-like treatise.
- Topic:
- Markets, Financial Crisis, Regulation, and Capitalism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
65. Coal Exit or Coal Expansion? A Review of Coal Market Trends and Policies in 2017
- Author:
- Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Coal in the power sector is the principal focus of climate-related policies due to its high carbon intensity, making CO2 emissions from coal a leading contributor to climate change. While 38% of global power generation come from coal (in 2017), coal-related CO2 emissions represent more than 70% of power sector emissions. Coal-fired power plants are also the leading source of all primary air pollutants within the power sector, causing respiratory diseases and premature deaths. Structural changes are fast sweeping through global electricity markets. A key driver is the fast deployment of renewable energy sources and their falling costs, making renewables increasingly competitive with coal. Coal is also becoming less competitive than other sources of electricity in several regions, due to the fall in gas prices, the rising cost of the carbon price and higher coal import prices. Pressures against investment in coal activities increasingly create challenges for financing coal projects. Global coal power investment has passed an all-time peak and has contracted over the past two years. Investment in greenfield coal mines is also at a standstill in all major coal exporting countries. Nevertheless, while the future of coal is dark, 2017 has been a good year for the sector. World coal production increased after three consecutive years of decline. Global coal demand and international trade rose again, and high coal prices (above $80/tonne since summer 2016) boosted the financial results of coal-mining companies. As a result of growing fossil fuel demand, global energy-related CO2 emissions rose again in 2017. These short-term results do not call into question global decarbonization trends but demonstrate that current efforts are insufficient to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The world is still divided about the future role of coal. A major change came in 2015 with the Paris Agreement, which prompted many nations across the world to accelerate their efforts to reduce coal consumption. Since then, several governments and power utilities have decided to phase out coal from their electricity mixes and joined the “Powering Past Coal Alliance”. Coal reduction or phase-out policies are being adopted or considered by more and more countries, and the reduction in the share of coal power generation goes faster than expected in several coal-consuming countries. But South and Southeast Asia remains a region for short to medium term growth in coal demand and Africa is a potential area for new growth. In this, new coal markets can also develop thanks to the support of countries eager to export their coal combustion technologies, led by China and Japan, and by the desire of coal exporters to find new outlets. Despite this growth, the sustainability of the relative good performance of the coal sector in 2017 is far from being ensured.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Coal
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
66. Price Discovery in Commodity Futures and Cash Markets with Heterogenous Agents
- Author:
- Sophie van Huellen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The paper develops a price discovery model for commodity futures markets that accounts for two forms of limits to arbitrage caused by transaction costs and noise trader risk. Four market regimes are identified: (1) effective arbitrage, (2) transaction costs but no noise trader risk, (3) no transaction costs but noise trader risk and (4) both transaction costs and noise trader risk. It is shown that commodity prices are driven by both market fundamentals and speculative trader positions under the latter two regimes. Further, speculative effects spill over to the cash market under regime (3) but are confined to the futures market under regime (4). The model is empirically tested using data from six grain and soft commodity markets. While regime (4) is rare and short lived, regime (3) with some noise trader risk and varying elasticity of arbitrage prevails
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Markets, Investment, Commodities, and Price
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
67. Would 100 Global Workshops on Theory Building Make A Difference?
- Author:
- Knud Erik Jörgensen
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- The paper rests on the assumption that theoretical knowledge is valuable. However, such an assumption cannot be taken for granted. Indeed the first objective is to examine the comparative advantages of theoretical knowledge. Second, if 100 theory building workshops would make a difference, what exactly would the difference be? After all, movie production is said to be dominated by Hollywood but Bollywood produces more movies than Hollywood. Nonetheless, the world market is dominated by Hollywood. Hence, if a distinction between academic domestic and global markets is applied, theory building for a number of domestic or regional markets might impact ‘consumption’ patterns in domestic or regional markets but not necessarily the world market. Moreover, the apparent need for 100 workshops rests on the assumption that the IR discipline is under American hegemony but this assumption is severely challenged by empirical research showing that American hegemony remains a fact in institutional terms but not in terms of theoretical fads and debates being followed in the rest of the world. In short, intellectual global hegemony is largely a chimera. Finally, the paper argues that 100 workshops might be necessary but could turn out to be waste of time and for two reasons. While theorizing a bygone world is fine, the workshops should address contemporary issues and be future-oriented. Furthermore, the workshops should contribute to redefine the (contested) core of the discipline.
- Topic:
- Markets, Hegemony, International Relations Theory, and Discipline
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
68. Volume 67 Issue 2
- Author:
- Haluk Alkan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Istanbul Journal of Economics
- Institution:
- Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
- Abstract:
- Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published two times a year in June and December. It has been an official publication of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics since 1939. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English. Being one of the earliest peer-reviewed academic journals in Turkey in the area of economics, Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi aims to provide a forum for exploring issues in basicly economics and publish both disciplinary and multidisciplinary articles. Economics is the main scope of the journal. However, multidisciplinary and comparative approaches are encouraged as well and articles from various social science areas such as sociology of economics, history, social policy, international relations, financial studies are welcomed in this regard. The target group of the journal consists of academicians, researchers, professionals, students, related professional and academic bodies and institutions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, Markets, Political Science, and Capital
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Global Focus
69. The Influence of Market Support Interventions on Household Food Security: An evidence synthesis
- Author:
- Helene Juillard, Rebecca Lewin, Lili Mohiddin, Marion Pechayre, and Gabrielle Smith
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- There is growing consensus on the need to consider and support markets as part of humanitarian responses. It is assumed that this support will increase the impact of responses – yet to date such assumptions are rarely supported by data and strong evidence. This evidence synthesis, commissioned by the Humanitarian Evidence Programme and carried out by a team of independent and multidisciplinary consultants, represents the first ever attempt to identify, synthesize and evaluate the existing evidence on the influence of market support interventions on household food security in humanitarian crises. It is accompanied by a stand-alone executive summary and evidence brief.
- Topic:
- Markets, Food, Humanitarian Crisis, and Nutrition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
70. Assessing the Effects of the Multifibre Arrangement after Its Termination
- Author:
- John Whalley and Daqing Yao
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- The effects of the termination of the Multifibre Arrangement (MFA) on the trade of clothing and textiles are assessed in this paper, based on world trade date and US trade data. The findings from the data analyzed indicate that the effects of the termination of the MFA on the clothing trade was more significant for clothing than for the textiles trade. With the end of the MFA, the freer trade in these sectors shed light on other sectors that are still protected under trade agreements.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Markets, Treaties and Agreements, and Regulation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus