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61. Women and the Future of Work: Fix the Present

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
There is a lot we don’t know about what automation will mean for jobs in the future, including its impact (if any) on gender inequality. This note reviews evidence and forecasts on that question and makes four main points: Past automation has been (broadly) positive for women’s average quality of life, economic empowerment, and equality. Forecasts of the gendered impact of automation and AI going forward based on the current distribution of employment suggest considerable uncertainty and a gender inequality of impact that is marginal compared to the potential impact overall. The bigger risk—and/or opportunity—is likely to be in the combined impact of automation, policy, and social norms in changing the type of work that is seen as male or female. Minimizing any potential aggravating impact of automation and AI on inequalities in economic power in the future can best be achieved by maximizing economic equality today.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Employment, Inequality, and Feminism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

62. Automation and a Changing Economy: Policies for Shared Prosperity

Author:
Alastair Fitzpayne, Conor Mckay, and Ethan Pollack
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Part I of this report, Automation and a Changing Economy: The Case for Action, explores how automation has impacted and will continue to impact the economic security and opportunity of the American worker. But technology is not destiny. The impact of innovation on the American worker is mediated by policies and institutions. We can choose to create an economy that: promotes technological progress; prepares workers to take advantage of the opportunities technology presents; supports those who are negatively impacted by automation return to stable work; and shares technology’s gains more broadly. These goals are achievable with the right support, but the policy structures currently in place are inadequate. This part of the report, Automation and a Changing Economy: Policies for Shared Prosperity, outlines a policy agenda for addressing these challenges and opportunities. Doing so requires an all-of-the-above approach, from targeted, specialized interventions to those with systems-level impact; from place-based policies to national-level reforms to safety net programs. The paper identifies four objectives that guide its recommendations
Topic:
Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Automation, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

63. Automation and a Changing Economy: The Case for Action

Author:
Alastair Fitzpayne, Conor Mckay, and Ethan Pollack
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Technology fuels our economy, captures our collective imaginations, and promises extraordinary possibilities. It permeates almost all aspects of our lives. From electrification and the internal combustion engine, to search engines and smartphones, technology has changed how we travel, access information, buy products, and communicate with each other. As technology changes our personal lives, it also changes work. For generations, economic change has replaced products, jobs, and industries with innovative new models. The American economy has transitioned from agrarian to industrial, service to digital, and with each evolution, America has prospered even as it grappled with the profound challenges of change. The American ideal embraces the promise that economic progress can create an inclusive society in which prosperity is broadly shared. Work is more than simply a way to earn a living. It gives structure, dignity, and purpose to our lives. For this reason, workers should not be treated as a cost of doing business but recognized for their productivity and creativity. For too many Americans, the promise of work is not being kept. New technologies are creating great wealth for some, but we are simultaneously experiencing historic income and wealth inequality. Without robust policies and strong institutions, new innovations risk exacerbating the economic insecurity and political and civil divides that we are experiencing today. Emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, and advanced robotics, have the potential to automate many tasks currently performed by workers. Historically, automation has been an important ingredient driving economic growth and progress. Automation has enabled us to feed a growing population while allowing workers to transition from subsistence farming to new forms of work. Automation helped move us from a craft system to mass production, from blue-collar to white-collar to “new-collar” work—with better work, higher wages, more jobs, and better living standards. Similar to past innovations, these new technologies offer the potential to help us meet human needs while supporting new jobs and industries never before imagined. However, automation can also have negative effects on individuals and communities. Those who lose their jobs suffer economic, social, and psychological hardship. Communities that relied on single industries that have been automated have struggled to recover. New jobs are being created, but their geographic distribution and skill requirements often make them inaccessible to the individuals and the communities where those whose jobs were lost. This dislocation has played a role in exacerbating America’s economic, political, geographic, and social divides. The answer to the dislocations that can result from automation should not be to stifle innovation. Policies and reforms should encourage both the development of new technologies and the promise of work. Workers need access to the opportunities technology creates. Policymakers and employers can help by providing access to skills training, ensuring the availability of good jobs, and improving the systems that are in place to help those who will transition from declining to growing occupations. While there are many unanswered questions about what the future holds, this report attempts to explain how automation impacts the labor market and how to better prepare American workers to benefit from the changes to come.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Automation, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

64. Working in Export Manufacturing: A Blessing or a Curse?

Author:
Francesco Amodio and Andreas Menzel
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:
In popular opinion, manufacturing in developing countries is often associated with low wages, dangerous working conditions, lax regulation, and worker exploitation. Research has shown that factories producing for export or based on FDI pay wages equivalent to other sectors, have higher labour standards, and employ large numbers of female workers. However, there are reported adverse effects on well-being, and consequences for young workers. While skepticism remains on buyers’ ability and interest in improving labour standards, there is some evidence of improvement through safety councils and more skilled management. Fears of consequences for competitiveness have been largely unfounded.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Global Markets, Economic Growth, Exports, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

65. Are Your Labor Shares Set in Beijing? The View through the Lens of Global Value Chains

Author:
Ariell Reshef and Gianluca Santoni
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We study the evolution of labor shares in 1995-2014 while taking into account international trade based on value added concepts. On average, the decline in labor shares (starting around 1980) accelerates in 2001-2007, after which labor shares recover somewhat. In contrast, skilled labor shares consistently increase. The acceleration in the decline in labor shares is associated with increased intensity of intermediate input exporting; this manifests in a sharp increase in the foreign component in upstreamness of industries and countries in global value chains (GVCs). China's global integration accounts for much of this. Declines in the price of investment together with capital-skill complementarity can explain both the consistent increase in skilled labor shares and the reversal of trend in overall labor shares. Compared to shares in GDP, labor shares in gross national product (GNP) are higher in countries with positive net FDI positions; the uneven spread of multinational activity contributes to greater inequality through this channel.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, Trade, Global Value Chains, and Skilled Labor
Political Geography:
China and Global Focus

66. İbn Haldun’un Emek Anlayışı: Marx ile Karşılaştırmalı bir İnceleme

Author:
Cemal Iyem, Fatma Zehra Yıldız, and Derya Gül Öztürk
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Sosyoloji, iktisat, felsefe gibi farklı disiplinlere ilham kaynağı olan 14. yüzyıl düşünürü İbn Haldun’un emek anlayışı alana önemli katkılar sunmaktadır. Marx’la birlikte sistematik hale gelen pek çok emek söyleminin yüzyıllarca önce İbn Haldun tarafından Mukaddimede incelenmesi araştırma probleminin oluşmasında önem taşımaktadır. Araştırmanın ana amacı, İbn Haldun ve Marx’ın emek anlayışlarını karşılaştırmalı olarak incelemektir. Ana problem, “İbn Haldun ve Marx’ın emek anlayışlarında ne tür farklılıklar/benzerlikler bulunmaktadır?” ifadesidir. Emek tartışmalarına farklı bir bakış açısı getiren bu çalışmada, nitel bir yaklaşım benimsenerek Mukaddime adlı eser derinlemesine incelenmiş, emeğe ilişkin verilerden kod listesi oluşturulmuştur. Elde edilen veriler içerik analiziyle değerlendirilerek Marx ve İbn Haldun’un emek anlayışları karşılaştırmalı olarak sunulmuştur. Araştırmanın sonucuna göre, İbn Haldun ve Marx’ın iş bölümünde farklı anlayışlara sahip oldukları, işçi ücretlerine yaklaşımlarının farklılaştığı, emeğin servetin kaynağı olarak görülmesi bakımından emek değer kuramında benzer görüşlere sahip oldukları, çalışmaya farklı anlamlar yükledikleri ve yabancılaşmayı baskıyla ilişkilendirdikleri belirlenmiştir. İbn Haldun, ibadete dönüşen emeği vurgularken Marx yabancılaşmış emeği vurgulamaktadır.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Sociology, Ibn Khaldun, and Karl Marx
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. A Gendered Perspective on Changing Demographics: Implications for Labour, Financial and Digital Equity

Author:
Florencia Caro Sachetti, Gala Díaz Langou, and Fernando Filgueira
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
The demographic transition has been one of the greatest phenomena affecting development worldwide and its effects on gender equity are undeniable. Lower fertility and ageing populations create both challenges and opportunities for gender equity, while women still face obstacles towards labour, financial and digital inclusion. G20 countries are at very different stages of the process, yet most have birth rates below replacement levels and population is ageing. Adopting a comprehensive and intersectional approach to women’s economic empowerment that contemplates age – and gender – specific rights, priorities and needs is crucial to both fulfilling women’s rights and facing the challenges associated with demographic change.
Topic:
Demographics, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Inequality, Finance, Digital Economy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

68. HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series

Author:
David Deming
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) jobs are a key contributor to economic growth and national competitiveness. Yet STEM workers are perceived to be in short supply. This paper shows that the “STEM shortage” phenomenon is explained by technological change, which introduces new job skills and makes old ones obsolete. We find that the initially high economic return to applied STEM degrees declines by more than 50 percent in the first decade of working life. This coincides with a rapid exit of college graduates from STEM occupations. Using detailed job vacancy data, we show that STEM jobs change especially quickly over time, leading to flatter age-earnings profiles as the skills of older cohorts became obsolete. Our findings highlight the importance of technology-specific skills in explaining life-cycle returns to education, and show that STEM jobs are the leading edge of technology diffusion in the labor market.
Topic:
International Organization, International Political Economy, Science and Technology, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Global Focus

69. Labor Institutions and Development Under Globalization

Author:
Servaas Storm and Jeronim Capaldo
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Labor market regulation is a controversial area of public policy in both developed and developing countries. After decades of de-regulatory advice, international financial institutions have recently come to a less extreme position. But any concessions to labor regulation are based on concerns for social stability or for short-term support to aggregate demand, while regulation continues to be viewed as harmful to economic efficiency. In this paper we take a deeper look at the impact of labor institutions on economic development in two ways. First, we propose a macroeconomic model with balance-of-payments constraint for a “small” developing country open to trade and foreign capital. This helps us clarify the importance of a dynamic view of economic efficiency, as opposed to the static view embedded in mainstream policy advice. Secondly, we discuss the political economy of labor regulation. We argue that labor institutions promote economic development though positive effects on aggregate demand, labor productivity and technology.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Regulation, Labor Market, and Labor Cost
Political Geography:
Global Focus

70. Gender and social mobility: Exploring gender attitudes and women’s labour force participation

Author:
Nancy Luke
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Women have historically been overlooked in research on social mobility. In contrast, new research focuses on the intergenerational transmission of gender attitudes and norms as determinants of women’s labour force participation in industrialized countries. This paper discusses the measurement of gender attitudes and reviews research findings. Studies reveal that gender attitudes are a key transmission mechanism for intergenerational economic mobility beyond wealth and other economic factors. Mothers’ egalitarian views and less-restrictive gender norms promote greater labour force participation for daughters and daughters-in-law. There are few investigations in developing countries, where restrictive gender attitudes and norms are more pervasive and could potentially have greater impact in shaping women’s labour force participation. The paper concludes with a brief case study of women’s labour force participation in India, where the direct link between gender attitudes and women’s labour market engagement could provide a further explanation for its recent decline.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, and Mobility
Political Geography:
Global Focus