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31. Making sense of Europe’s Southern Neighbourhood: Main Geopolitical and Security Parameters

Author:
Luis Simón and Vivien Pertusot
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
Europe’s southern neighbourhood is a diverse but interlinked geopolitical ensemble, whose specificities need to be carefully assessed before Europeans devise dedicated security strategies, divide responsibilities and make policy decisions. This exercise in geopolitical scoping seeks to make sense of the main security challenges present in Europe’s broader European neighbourhood, a space encompassing areas as diverse as the Gulf of Guinea, the Sahel, North Africa, the Levant and the Persian Gulf. It identifies (some of) the main sub-regions that make up the ‘South’, offers an overview of the threat environment in each of them and identifies relevant differences as well as common themes. In doing so we aim to provide a conceptual referent for further policy research on the security of Europe’s ‘South’, and to help inform future strategic and policy discussions within the EU, NATO and their Member States.
Topic:
International Security, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

32. Time for action: EU and a new political initiative in Libya

Author:
Arturo Varvelli
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
During 2016 and in the first few weeks of 2017, it has become clear that General Khalifa Haftar is gaining support both locally and internationally. Egypt, the Emirates, Russia, and France, all played a role in strengthening his power.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Libya and Global Focus

33. Illusions vs Reality: Twenty-Five Years of U.S. Policy Toward Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia

Author:
Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, Paul Stronski, and Andrew Weiss
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The U.S.-Russian relationship is broken, and it cannot be repaired quickly or easily. Improved personal ties between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin may be useful, but they are not enough. The Trump administration needs to temper expectations about breakthroughs or grand bargains with Moscow. Instead, the focus should be on managing a volatile relationship with an increasingly emboldened and unpredictable Russian leadership. The real test for any sustainable approach will be whether it advances U.S. interests and values, especially in the wake of Moscow’s reckless meddling in the November presidential election.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

34. After ISIS: How to Win the Peace in Iraq and Libya

Author:
Hayder al-Khoei, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Mattia Toaldo
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
ISIS has suffered significant setbacks in both Iraq and Libya with the battles for Mosul and Sirte representing potential turning-points. • Without a clear political strategy to guide post- ISIS efforts, these military gains could quickly be lost. Both countries could again become breeding grounds for conflict and extremism, exacerbating European security and migration challenges. This risk is especially high for Iraq given the conflict in neighbouring Syria. • The new US administration is likely to invest less energy than its predecessors in strengthening political orders which provide stability. European states must step up their own efforts
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

35. The Plutonium Disposition Management Agreement: Russia’s Withdrawal and the Possible Consequences

Author:
Debalina Ghoshal
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
InOctober2016,RussianPresidentVladmirPutin suspendedthePlutoniumDispositionManagementAgreement (PDMA) that mandated both the United States and Russia to eliminate a sufficient quantity of weapons grade plutonium. The suspension of the PDMA represents a step away toward achieving nuclear disarmament, a crucial component of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) under Article VI.
Topic:
International Security and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Russia and Global Focus

37. Unpacked: The threat from North Korea

Author:
Jonathan Pollack
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Brookings Senior Fellow and SK-Korea Foundation Chair Jonathan Pollack explains the threat that North Korea poses to the United States, its neighbors, and the world. Pollack also explores the different options that the United States has to handle threats from North Korea and describes the different scenarios that could escalate tensions between the United States and North Korea.
Topic:
International Security and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
America, North Korea, and Global Focus

38. North Korea and the Middle East

Author:
Alon Levkowitz
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
Kim Jung-un’s new year declaration that North Korea will test its new ICBM this year (2017) poses a further challenge to the incoming Trump administration. It is truly a “rogue state” – a country that conducts nuclear tests in defiance of the UN Security Council, and that is willing to sell conventional and non-conventional weapons to other rogue regimes, including Israel’s enemies. The nuclear cooperation between North Korea, Syria and Iran forces Israel into new alliances to counter this threat.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
North Korea and Global Focus

39. Non-proliferation challenges facing the Trump administration

Author:
Robert Einhorn
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The global nuclear non-proliferation regime, as it has evolved since the entry into force of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1970, has been remarkably resilient. Despite predictions of a “cascade of proliferation,” there are currently only nine states with nuclear weapons, and that number has remained the same for the past 25 years.[1] The NPT is nearly universal, with 190 parties and only five non-parties (India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, South Sudan). Several countries voluntarily abandoned nuclear weapons development programs (Argentina, Brazil, Egypt); several others were forced diplomatically or militarily to give up the quest (Iraq, Libya, South Korea, Syria); three former Soviet republics inherited nuclear weapons but gave them up (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine); and one country built a small arsenal before unilaterally eliminating it (South Africa). With Iran’s path to nuclear weapons blocked by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) for at least 10 to 15 years, there are no non-nuclear weapon states currently believed to be pursuing nuclear weapons, according to U.S. government sources. And despite cases of nuclear smuggling and continuing interest of terrorist groups in acquiring nuclear weapons, no thefts of enough fissile material to build a bomb are believed to have taken place.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

40. Can a Hydra Ever Be a Good Pet? Federal Information Technology Modernization’s Likely Failure

Author:
Lawrence Husick
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
In Greek mythology, the Hydra was a many-headed serpent (accounts range from six to more than 50 heads) which grew back at least two heads for each one lopped off. The Hydra had poisonous breath and blood so virulent that even its scent was deadly. It took Heracles to vanquish the beast in his second labor. It’s a pity then that the less-than-heroic Jared Kushner now has the task of modernizing and reforming the federal government’s information technology (IT) and cybersecurity infrastructure—a hydra-like beast if ever there was one.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus