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191. The Influence of Commercial Space Capabilities on Deterrence

Author:
John Klein
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Recent U.S. space policy initiatives underscore the far-reaching benefits of commercial space activities. The White House revived the National Space Council to foster closer coordination, cooperation, and exchange of technology and information among the civil, national security, and commercial space sectors.1 National Space Policy Directive 2 seeks to promote economic growth by streamlining U.S. regulations on the commercial use of space.2 While the defense community generally appreciates the value of services and capabilities derived from the commercial space sector—including space launch, Earth observation, and satellite communications—it often overlooks one area of strategic importance: deterrence.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

192. When the Friend of My Friends Is Not My Friend

Author:
Mark Katz
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
uring the Cold War, the Soviet Union posed a challenge to the United States throughout the entire world, including in the Middle East. Soviet activity in the Middle East, though, was also a challenge for many US allies in the region, and beyond. Soviet influence in the Middle East expanded during the 1950s and 1960s, in particular, as many in the Arab world became angry about US support for Israel, and as several pro-Western Arab governments were overthrown and replaced by anti-Western ones that actively sought Soviet support. Due to several factors, however, many of the gains made by the Soviets in the Middle East ended up being lost. These included: the defection of Gamal Abdel Nasser’s successor in Egypt, Anwar Sadat, from the Soviet to the US camp; Washington’s successful 1970s-era diplomacy in bringing about an Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement; genuine fear of the Soviet threat on the part of Saudi Arabia and other Arab monarchies; the 1979 Iranian Revolution, in which the downfall of a pro-Western regime did not lead to the rise of a pro-Soviet one, but to the rise of one that was both anti-American and anti-Soviet; and, finally, the collapse of both communism and the Soviet Union itself from 1989 to 1991
Topic:
International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

193. Why Did Greece Turn Against Russia?

Author:
Dimitar Bechev
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
In the summer of 2018, Greece and Russian Federation went through one of the worst crises in their traditionally friendly relations. The falling out was triggered by allegations of Russian meddling in Greek domestic politics
Topic:
International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

194. Transatlantic Cooperation on Asia and the Trump Administration

Author:
Andrew Small
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Transatlantic cooperation on Asia, and on China in particular, is still characterized by missed opportunities and self-imposed obstacles. Yet it would be a mistake to underplay the constructive developments that have occurred during the Trump administration. At the working level, a great deal of groundwork has now been laid for the joint efforts that will be necessary on a range of Asia policy issues.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

195. Inequality in Energy Consumption: Statistical Equilibrium or a Question of Accounting Conventions?

Author:
Gregor Semieniuk and Isabella M. Weber
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Mitigating climate change requires information about the inequality in energy consumption. Recent contributions (Banerjee and Yakovenko, 2010; Lawrence et al., 2013; Yakovenko, 2010, 2013) have studied energy inequality through the lens of maximum entropy. They claim a weighted international distribution of total primary energy demand should approach a Boltzmann-Gibbs maximum entropy equilibrium distribution in the form of an exponential distribution, implying convergence to a Gini coefficient of 0.5 from above. The present paper challenges the validity of this claim and critically discusses the applicability of statistical equilibrium reasoning to economics from the viewpoint of social accounting. It is shown that the exponential distribution is only a robust candidate for a statistical equilibrium of energy inequality when employing one particular accounting convention for energy flows, the substitution method. But this method has become problematic with a higher renewable share in the international energy mix, and no other accounting method supports the claim of a convergence to a 0.5 Gini. We conclude that the findings based on maximum entropy reasoning are sensitive to accounting conventions and critically discuss the epistemological implications of this sensitivity for the use of maximum entropy approaches in social sciences.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

196. Semi-Core States: A New Category For Rethinking The Structure of Power

Author:
Daniel Efrén Morales Ruvalcaba
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
Do all the core states occupy identical positions in the hierarchy of world power and perform the same functions? The hypothesis outlined here is that there is an unforeseen category: semi-core states. They have very important socio-institutional power but are “tertiary” in terms of economic-military and communicative-cultural power. Despite their relative marginality, they play strategic roles in international politics, especially in support of the central powers (great and middle). This article analyzes the general characteristics of the so-called center of the world-system, identifies the semi-core states theoretically and empirically, explores their genesis and analyzes their roles in the international system.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Social Order, and Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

197. Assessing Progress on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament: 2016-2019 Report Card

Author:
Alicia Sanders-Zakre and Kelsey Davenport
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
This new report is the fourth in a series that assesses the extent to which 11 key states are fulfilling, promoting, or undermining 10 standards identified as critical elements of the nonproliferation and disarmament regime. Collectively, states fared worse on the majority of criteria when compared with the prior edition covering the 2013–2016 period.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, Nonproliferation, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

198. Five Takeaways on the Future of Humanitarian Reform

Author:
Jeremy Konyndyk
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The world’s humanitarian aid architecture is growing outdated. Relief programs are most effective when they are integrated, locally owned, and demand driven. But humanitarian action in the 21st century remains constrained by a 20th-century aid model: siloed, supply driven, and centered on the individual mandates and sectors of major international aid agencies. This makes aid both less effective and less responsive than it could be. In a world where displacement is at the highest levels in generations, climate disasters are increasing, and humanitarian funding is beginning to level off, this disconnect is no longer tenable. But fixing it is not a simple matter—multiple rounds of humanitarian reform over the past 15 years have made progress but fallen short of fundamental change. Earlier this summer in Geneva, CGD convened two high-level private roundtables, one with leaders from humanitarian donor institutions and another with senior executives from major humanitarian aid agencies (both multilaterals and NGOs), to discuss how to make humanitarian aid more cohesive and user-centered. The meetings were part of a multiyear research initiative exploring how modernizing the humanitarian business model and humanitarian governance are integral to improving field-level humanitarian impact. CGD teed up the conversation with three emerging ideas from our research (you can see the presentation slides here). These ideas—the subjects of several forthcoming papers CGD is developing —explore ways of better aligning aid delivery around enhanced impact toward affected people’s priorities
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Reform, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

199. Promoting Investment in Research for Development Outcomes: A Research Ventures Fund at the World Bank

Author:
Scott Morris
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
This note proposes a new Research Ventures Fund (RVF) at the World Bank to better prioritize R&D investments in support of development progress. The RVF would employ financing mechanisms that are consistent with research needs: significant scale and scope, patience, and tolerance for failure. Existing development-oriented research consortia like CGIAR would provide a promising start for RVF funding allocations. Donors to the IDA-19 replenishment should take the first step in securing funding for the new fund in 2019.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, World Bank, Finance, Research, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

200. Why Uncertainty in Global Health Interventions Matters—and What We Can Do About It

Author:
Kalipso Chalkidou, Anupama Dathan, and Francis Ruiz
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Global health interventions, like many public policies, are rife with uncertainty. Will a program, such as a malaria prevention strategy that looks strong on paper, work as intended? Will a new technology, such as a specific drug or device that appears effective in clinical trial settings, work in practice and provide good value-for-money? In the case of programs made up of a complex interaction of multiple interventions, implementers often create a theory of change and then meticulously track whether it is being followed every step of the way, from each input translating into the prespecified activity, and the activities yielding the right outputs and the expected outcomes. When observational data is available that permits quantitative analysis (evaluation), it may also be possible to estimate causal impact in a given setting by applying experimental methods (such as a randomized controlled trial) or quasi-experimental techniques (such as difference-in-difference analysis). Such program evaluations generally consider outputs (e.g. the number of bed nets distributed) and relatively short-term outcomes (e.g. malaria infections following bed net distribution). Many eval- uations also collect data years after the program to identify longer-term impacts. Cost-effectiveness calculations are sometimes conducted after ascertaining the cost and impact of the program, but such analyses aren’t necessarily considered when determining whether to implement a certain program or technology—especially when politics and other concerns get in the way. Discrete clinical interventions and technologies (which are defined as including clinical interven- tions, drugs, diagnostics and even public health programs) are usually the subject of health technolo- gy assessment (HTA) to inform coverage decisions in many contexts. The underpinning evidence base for HTA typically involves a synthesis of randomized trial data, designed to reduce bias in estimating causal inference and relative effectiveness. Trial data is then combined with information from other sources and study designs to develop models of the technology’s long-term health and cost impact in a given context. A key feature of both programs and technologies is uncertainty.
Topic:
Health, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Humanitarian Intervention, and Pharmaceuticals
Political Geography:
Global Focus