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551. Rebelocracy: A Theory of Social Order in Civil War

Author:
Ana Arjona
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
War zones are usually portrayed as chaotic and anarchic. In irregular civil wars, however, they are often ordered. Furthermore, different forms of order often coexist in areas controlled by the same non-state armed group, where the behavior of both civilians and combatants vary substantially. What explains this variation? In this paper I present a theory of the creation of order in war zones that analyzes the behavior of non-state armed groups, the responses of local populations, and the effect of their interaction on wartime institutions. My central argument is that disorder emerges when armed groups have short time horizons, which usually happens when they fight for control with other warring sides or are undisciplined; under these conditions, they are unlikely to establish a social contract with the local population. When armed groups have a long time horizon, a social contract is established, giving place to a new order. In this new order, armed groups may intervene minimally or broadly in civilian affairs; their choice, I argue, depends on the likelihood of organized civilian resistance, which is, in turn, a function of the quality of pre-existing local institutions, especially those dealing with adjudication of disputes. I also present extensions of the theory that account for variation in the strategic value of territory, variation in local capacity for collective action, and armed groups’ information about local institutions.
Topic:
International Affairs and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

552. Time, Relations and Behaviors: Measuring the Transformative Power of Love-Based Community Life

Author:
Mario Maggioni and Simona Beretta
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper is about measuring if and how vulnerable persons’ choices and attitudes change when they undergo a significant modification in their lives, as they begin experiencing care and support within durable relationships in love-based communities. Although there is anecdotal evidence that love-based experiences produce a restorative and rehabilitative impact on vulnerable people’s lives, we still lack adequate empirical frameworks for measuring the transformative power of such experiences on individual choices and attitudes. This paper proposes an innovative methodology for measuring personal transformation. We use a mix of behavioral economics experiments, textual analysis, and validated psychological tests to perform a longitudinal analysis of individuals in love-based communities. Changes in behavioral parameters and qualitative answers, observed over a significant period of love-based “treatment,” provide empirical evidence of the transformative impact on deep behavioral traits and attitudes (altruism, gratitude, sincerity, trust). This methodology, which significantly innovates on existing behavioral experiments and on conventional longitudinal studies and field experiments, has been applied to three ongoing case studies of love-based treatment: 1) formerly addicted people living in Italian rehab communities; 2) Californian convicts attending Guiding Rage into Power (GRIP) programs; 3) vulnerable schoolchildren experiencing Distance Support in Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo. This paper is meant to present our methodology to researchers interested in human and social development, hoping to receive from them comments, suggestions, and possibly interest in a collaboration on other case studies.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

553. Islam, Christianity, and Attitudes Toward Women's Political Equality: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Kristin Michelitch and Keith R Weghorst
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Many characterize adherence to Islam as antithetical to women's political equality due to cross-national analyses showing a correlation between Muslim majority countries and higher gender inequality. Others argue that political, economic, and social contextual factors coinciding with religion confound the relationship. A third viewpoint holds that the meaning and salience of religion for women's political equality is fluid and endogenous to such contextual factors. We take a new empirical approach to address these questions by conducting analyses of gender attitudes within and across mixed Muslim-Christian countries in Africa. Consistent with the third viewpoint, we find that within-country gaps between Muslims and Christians are variable in size and direction. Such gaps are generally reduced through within-country matching, indicating at least partial confounding of religion on observable factors. While Muslims are generally more conservative than Christians, the impact of religion on attitudes is far less explanatory than country-level fixed effects and socioeconomic attributes such as gender. Religiosity increases egalitarianism for Christians but has no systematic effect for Muslims. Women of both religions are more egalitarian than men, and the effect of Islam is much larger for men than for women.
Topic:
Islam and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

554. Congress of the United States House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform

Author:
Ambassador Dore Gold
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Today, I am not going to address the question of moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem directly. It is my view that President Donald Trump has made a commitment in that regard and I believe he will stand by what he has said. The United States will evaluate the timing and circumstances for executing that decision in accordance with its interests.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

555. Action on Climate and Security Risks

Author:
Janani Vivekananda
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This report looks at progress made on policy and practical responses to climate-security risks for 2016-2017. Using the independent G7 commissioned report A New Climate for Peace as a basis, and building on last year’s report, Towards A Global Resilience Agenda, this year’s report sets out the key achievements, pitfalls and new challenges facing the foreign policy community working to reduce climate-fragility risks
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

556. Central Mali: violence, local perspectives and diverging narratives

Author:
Aurélien Tobie
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Initially, the 2012 crisis affecting Mali was understood to be primarily focused on the northern regions of the country, as were the previous rebellions that had been errupting at regular intervals since independence. However, the dramatic increase since 2015 in violence targeting security forces, elected or traditional officials, market places and schools in Mopti, the central region of Mali, has shifted attention
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

557. Export controls, human security and cyber-surveillance technology: Examining the proposed changes to the EU Dual-use Regulation

Author:
Mark Bromley
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This paper seeks to inform discussion European Commission’s proposed ‘recast’ of the EU Dual-use Regulation—the main regulatory instrument for EU member states’ controls on the trade in dual-use items. The proposal, which is currently being examined by the European Parliament and Council of the European Union, is part of a review of the Regulation which was launched in 2011
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

558. Security and economy on the Belt and Road: Three country case studies

Author:
Henrik Hallgren and Richard Ghiasy
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the result of a convergence of multiple Chinese domestic drivers and external developments. It holds significant potential to contribute to greater connectivity and stability in participating states, yet there is a need to include a wider spectrum of local and international stakeholders in order to address concerns and mitigate backlashes.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

559. South Korea Votes for Change: What It Means for the United States

Author:
Daniel Sneider
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
President-elect Moon has gained office riding a wave of demand for social justice and a reform of democratic governance in South Korea. These are the issues that are certain to consume his attention and that of voters. U.S. policymakers need to be mindful that the domestic factors that led to this shift in power in South Korea will remain paramount. That said, the return to power of South Korea’s progressives augurs a significant shift in several areas of policy that will have a clear impact on alliance relations with the United States.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

560. The Pentagon’s Pivot: How Lead Users Are Transforming Defense Product Development

Author:
Adam Jay Harrison
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Historically, the Department of Defense (DOD) has relied on strategic forecasting to determine specifications for new military products. These specifications are codified in formal product requirements that drive new product development (NPD). The rapid rate of technology change combined with increasing uncertainty in the global security environment challenges the ability of DOD to make accurate longterm predictions about future military product needs. To improve the efficacy of capability development, many DOD agencies and the Defense Industrial Base are exploring NPD strategies based on the insights of lead users with direct exposure to emerging military-technology problems. This paper details emerging approaches to military NPD that incorporate lead users; that is, practitioners who experience and proactively solve needs ahead of the market.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus