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1. The Future of Work(ers) in the Age of Technological Revolution

Author:
Andrés César
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This chapter reviews key literature on the determinants and implications of technological change associated with the Third and Fourth Industrial Revolutions, which have spread globally since the late 20th century, and presents descriptive evidence. The main conclusion is that while technological progress has not significantly threatened overall employment opportunities, it has clearly contributed to rising income inequality. Consequently, a future devoid of employment is not anticipated, although the prospects for equality remain uncertain. I argue that to maximize the benefits of technological advancement, education must evolve in tandem with technology, equipping individuals to work alongside new innovations throughout their lives. This would enable workers to fully leverage automation of routine tasks and augmentation of abstract and cognitive tasks, fostering teamwork, problem-solving, flexibility, creativity, and social intelligence. Furthermore, productivity growth driven by technological progress is likely to increase demand for both traditional and new goods and services, generate income gains that increase demand for quality, accelerate structural change, and exert pressure on resource utilization.
Topic:
Education, Science and Technology, Income Distribution, Jobs, Technological Revolution, and Resource Utilization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Global income polarization: Relative and absolute perspectives

Author:
Vanesa Jorda, Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, Laurence Roope, and Finn Tarp
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper presents the first global and regional estimates of polarization and bipolarization spanning the period 1960–2020. The study relies on group data to implement a flexible parametric model to obtain the global income distribution and polarization estimates. The study introduces a battery of sensitivity tests to assess the reliability of polarization estimates under various assumptions, with particular emphasis on the impact of survey under-coverage of top incomes on global polarization levels and trends. Overall, we find that relative bipolarization has consistently decreased since 1980, while in absolute terms it has increased since 1960. The more general measure of relative polarization has also exhibited a steady decline since 1980; however, the trend in its absolute counterpart depends on the size of a sensitivity parameter, which reflects whether individuals cluster with peers of similar income or are segregated from different income groups. Consequently, absolute polarization declined over time for lower values of this parameter but increased for higher values.
Topic:
Economic Inequality, Polarization, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:
Global Focus