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1. 2023 Kaldor Centre Conference Report: Learning from the future: Foresight for the next decade of forced migration

Author:
Andrew & Renata Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW Sydney
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Andrew & Renata Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW Sydney
Abstract:
At Learning from the future: Foresight for the next decade of forced migration, the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law convened leading experts for a day of compelling discussions designed to explore the greatest challenges for forced migrants in the decade ahead. Scholars, policy experts, decision-makers, civil society leaders, refugee community representatives and others gathered at UNSW Sydney on 20 November 2023, on the unceded territory of the Bedegal people. Together we reckoned with seismic challenges underway – legal, political, technological, environmental, demographic, economic and social – to consider how they will shape our world in the coming decade. We set ourselves the task of imagining what the landscape of global protection could look like 10 years from now. Our aim was to unearth the issues we need to grapple with and opportunities we need to seize today, in order to ensure protection for those who need it tomorrow. This report summarises the key takeaways from each session, which can also be replayed on our website. The ideas revealed by our speakers will be valuable to anyone around the world interested in the protection of refugees and other forced migrants. We hope the report and other resources enable you to share and benefit from this knowledge.
Topic:
International Law, Conference, Future, Forced Migration, and Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Applying Concepts and Tools in Demography for Estimating, Analyzing, and Forecasting Forced Migration

Author:
Ryan Muttarak
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
Among demographic events (birth, death, and migration), migration is notably the most volatile component to forecast accurately. Accounting for forced migration is even more challenging given the difficulty in collecting forced migration data. Knowledge of trends and patterns of forced migration and its future trajectory is, however, highly relevant for policy planning for migrant-sending and receiving areas. This paper aims to review existing methodological tools to estimate and forecast migration in demography and explore how they can be applied to the study of forced migration. It presents steps towards estimation of forced migration and future assessments, which comprise: (1) migration flows estimation methods using both traditional and nontraditional data; (2) empirical analysis of drivers of migration and migration patterns; and (3) forecasting migration based on multidimensional population projections and scenarios approach. The paper then discusses how these demographic methods and tools can be applied to estimate and forecast forced migration.
Topic:
Demographics, Migration, Humanitarian Crisis, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Resilience within Communities of Forced Migrants: Updates and the Path Forward

Author:
Sofia Curdumi Pendley, Mark Jennings Van Landingham, Nhu Ngoc Pham, and Mai Do
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
We explore the current state of the principal literature relevant to resilience and vulnerability within and among communities of forced migrants. We highlight strengths, gaps, and weaknesses in these literatures, utilizing a case study to illustrate the importance of what we deem to be essential omitted variables. We make recommendations for moving these literatures—and their associated underlying conceptual frameworks—forward.
Topic:
Migration, Humanitarian Crisis, Resilience, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Modeling and Simulation as a Bridge to Advance Practical and Theoretical Insights About Forced Migration Studies

Author:
Erika Frydenlund
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
Modeling and Simulation (M&S) is a relatively unused research approach in forced migration studies. In most of its application areas, M&S is applied in several broad thematic policy-oriented topics: predicting human movement, humanitarian logistics, communicable diseases, healthcare, policing, and economics. More recently, there has been increased use of M&S in predicting human movement and health impacts resulting from climate change. Computer modeling has benefits for both policy and theoretical advancements in the field. M&S is often associated as a predictive tool that appeals to policymakers and planners. But M&S has many other significant benefits. For policymakers and planners, M&S provides a simulated environment to explore “what-if” scenarios. These scenarios can be adjusted to reflect different assumptions and conditions in the field. M&S can provide a means for translating interpretivist research findings—themselves rich in descriptions of actors, relationships, and dynamics—into visual artifacts that can communicate results to policymakers. It also can help to test the assumptions of theoretical findings, explore generalizability to other cases and conditions, and inform future data collection efforts. On the other hand, because models can take a long time to construct and test, they cannot provide rapid insights about evolving situations to inform decision-making at the onset of a new emergency. Data dashboards, the staple of modern humanitarian operations, are better for identifying emergent needs and tracking efforts. However, modeling what we know from one situation allows us to use those insights in systematic and strategic ways to improve operations for the future. M&S can also provide researchers with an additional tool that allows improved integration of multiple data types and sources. These data, assumptions, and theoretical constructs can be linked together in a complex, nonlinear, dynamic system that can then be set in motion to see if the simulated world reveals phenomena that are witnessed in the real world. But interdisciplinary communication and collaboration is hard and finding modelers who value interpretivist research can be even harder. M&S is not a silver bullet but provides a unique approach that incorporates dynamics and is becoming increasingly accessible to policymakers, practitioners, and academics, including those without computer programing experience. For policy, it is important to invest the time and resources to develop simulation models—from simple to complex—that help when planning for the evolution of events, or for the next event. Models of current refugee situations should inform where to concentrate efforts to advance durable solutions and how to plan for potential scenarios of return to countries of origin. Policymakers must recognize the long-term value of modeling what we know now to use later. Researchers of migration should become familiar with M&S paradigms so they can become part of the model design, development, and testing phases—at least part of the conversation. Better integration of migration scholars in design and development has the potential to strengthen models for policymaking, but perhaps more importantly, to strengthen the field by serving as an extra tool for testing theories, assumptions, and generalizability of findings to other locations and situations.
Topic:
Migration, Models, Forced Migration, and Simulation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Ethics in Forced Migration Research: Taking Stock and Potential Ways Forward

Author:
Christina Clark-Kazak
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
Migration research poses particular ethical challenges because of legal precarity, the criminalization and politicization of migration, and power asymmetries. This paper analyzes these challenges in relation to the ethical principles of voluntary, informed consent; protection of personal information; and minimizing harm. It shows how migration researchers — including those outside of academia — have attempted to address these ethical issues in their work, including through the recent adoption of a Code of Ethics by the International Association for the Study of Forced Migration (IASFM). However, gaps remain, particularly in relation to the intersection of procedural and relational ethics; specific ethical considerations of big data and macrocomparative analyses; localized meanings of ethics; and oversight of researchers collecting information outside of institutional ethics boards.
Topic:
Migration, Ethics, Humanitarian Crisis, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Safe Journeys and Sound Policy: Expanding protected entry for refugees

Author:
Claire Higgins
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Andrew & Renata Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW Sydney
Abstract:
Protected entry procedures are visa mechanisms that allow individuals to apply for entry into another country for the purpose of accessing protection under international refugee or human rights law. Procedures are made available within countries of origin or first asylum, their primary function being to ensure that asylum seekers and refugees can travel safely across international borders and avoid potentially dangerous or exploitative irregular journeys. This Policy Brief draws on past and current State practice to outline what these procedures look like, and how they should operate as tools of refugee protection. It speaks to a core objective of the Global Compact on Refugees, which is to expand access to third-country solutions for refugees and asylum seekers. Forced migration is currently at record highs worldwide, but not all those who are displaced will want or need to move outside their region of origin. UNHCR has identified a relatively small number of refugees, 1.4 million people, as needing resettlement under its annual program in 2020. This means that States could make a real difference by expanding the use of protected entry procedures and other complementary pathways to increase access to protection and solutions.
Topic:
Refugees, Forced Migration, Protection, Migration Policy, and Asylum Seekers
Political Geography:
Global Focus