Search

Begin New Search Topic Economy Political Geography Global Focus

131. The Way Forward for WTO Reform: Agricultural Subsidies and Special and Differential Treatments

Author:
Jin Kyo Suh, Ji Hyun Park, and Min-Sung Kim
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The multilateral trading system has been in crisis. The world economy has changed significantly since the WTO replaced the previous GATT system and new challenges are quickly piling on top of the old ones. The rising emerging countries and the relative decline of traditional economic members, together with the need to deal with complex new issues such as climate change and e-commerce and digital trade, are shaking the foundations on which the WTO was built some 25 years ago. There is also growing momentum among many WTO members to ‘modernize’ the WTO, including the Appellate Body although the details and feasibility of reform are unclear at this stage. In this perspective, we suggest some ideas on both trade-distorting farm subsidies and S&DT which are the two important issues in the WTO negotiations.
Topic:
Agriculture, Reform, Economy, Multilateralism, WTO, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

132. New Approaches to Climate Change and Migration: Building the Adaptive Capacity of Mobile Populations

Author:
Carol Farbotko
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
It is often assumed that there is a direct link between climate change and human mobility, and that mobility is evidence of a failure to adapt to changing conditions. The reality is much more complex. Worsening climate conditions can lead to a variety of mobility outcomes: some individuals or communities may be trapped in place, while others may choose to stay and develop local adaptation strategies; some may choose to move to mitigate risks or diversify household incomes, while others may be forced to leave. And all of this is occurring against a backdrop of globalization and urbanization, in which mobility and translocal networks are already significant parts of many people’s lives. This report examines the concept of “adaptive capacity” and how it can be useful in understand the relationship between climate change and migration, as well as the ways mobility can be a strategic choice—or a source of greater vulnerability. Drawing on examples from the Pacific Islands, Asia, and other regions, the report analyzes the limitations of existing responses to climate change and outlines an alternative, adaptation pathways model that is flexible and emphasizes the involvement of affected communities. Adopting an adaptation pathways approach, the author writes, could help avoid a common pitfall of climate change adaptation measures: that they are often top down and do not integrate local knowledge, cultures, and other important contextual factors. Failure to consult local communities can lead measures to backfire or create greater vulnerabilities elsewhere, while a more participatory, flexible approach can bring to light important local insights and yield stronger solutions that are able to respond to future developments.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Migration, Governance, and Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

133. TESEV Interviews: Data Sharing for Urban Governance Part 7

Author:
Rob Kitchin
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
With the support of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNS), the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) has been running the program titled “Supporting Sustainable Cities” since 2016. This year’s project is designed to highlight the need for effective networks that connect key actors for maintaining a workable “data-ecosystem”. In order to bring expert opinion to the discussion, TESEV has conducted a video interview with Prof. Rob Kitchin of Maynooth University with the aim of producing a series of short clips providing key insights. Having served as the principal investigator in the project that gave rise to the Dublin Dashboard among numerous other data initiatives that he led, and as a widely published scholar in open data and data-ecosystems, Kitchin’s comments serve as a guide for potential models of partnership to build effective data-ecosystems. Key pieces of information from our interview are presented in this eight-part mini-series. Part 7: Is it not reasonable to expect cities to take responsibility for the sustainability of urban dashboard projects given that they are the ones benefiting the most from these dashboards?
Topic:
Urbanization, Economy, Urban, Sustainability, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

134. Is the economy doomed to a long recession?

Author:
Andrzej Halesiak and Andrzej Rzońca
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Forecasting during a strong shock is burdened with exceptionally high uncertainty. This gives rise to the temptation to formulate alarmist forecasts. Experiences from earlier pandemics, particularly those from the 20th century, for which we have the most data, don’t provide a basis for this. The mildest of them weakened growth by less than 1 percentage point, and the worst, the Spanish Flu, by 6 percentage points. Still, even the Spanish Flu never caused losses on the order of 20% of GDP – not even where it turned out to be a humanitarian disaster, costing the lives of 3-5% of the population. History suggests that if pandemics lead to such deep losses at all, it’s only in particular quarters and not over a whole year, as economic activity rebounds. The strength of that rebound is largely determined by economic policy. The purpose of this work is to describe possible scenarios for a rebound in Polish economic growth after the epidemic. A separate issue, no less important, is what world will emerge from the current crisis. In the face of the 2008 financial crisis, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” Such changes can make the economy and society function better than before the crisis. Unfortunately, the opportunities created by the global financial crisis were squandered. Today’s task is more difficult; the scale of various problems has expanded even more. Without deep structural and institutional changes, the world will be facing enduring social and economic problems, accompanied by long-term stagnation.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic Growth, Crisis Management, Fiscal Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

135. The Great Lockdown: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Economy

Author:
Damian Wnukowski and Marek Wasinski
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The coronavirus pandemic and efforts to suppress it (the Great Lockdown) will lead to the collapse of the global economy. In the short term, the reduction in production and consumption in the countries most affected by the pandemic will lead to a global recession. In the long run, the crisis may result in a partial retreat from globalisation, higher indebtedness, and narrowing the differences in economic potential between the EU and the U.S., and China. A positive side effect may be the acceleration of the development of the digital economy, including the services market.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Global Financial Crisis, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
Political Geography:
China, Europe, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

136. A new policy toolkit is needed as countries exit COVID-19 lockdowns

Author:
Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon, and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Most governments have taken measures to protect vulnerable workers and firms from the worst effects of the sudden drop in activity related to COVID-19. But as lockdowns are lifted, the focus must shift, and governments in advanced economies must design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment.
Topic:
Government, Labor Issues, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

137. This Time is Different. The "COVID-Shock" and Future of the Global Oil Market

Author:
Giuliano Garavini
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Oil markets are facing a perfect storm. The scissors of supply and demand are moving against one another, generating increasing pain on the oil industry and the political and financial stability of oil-producing countries. Global oil demand is dropping due to the recession induced by the COVID-19 shut down of economic activity and transport in the most industrialized countries. Goldman Sachs predicts that global demand could drop from 100 million barrels per day (mdb) in 2019 to nearly 80 mdb in 2020.1 If confirmed, this would be single biggest demand shock since petroleum started its race to become the most important energy source in the world.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, Global Markets, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Global Focus

138. Maritime Challenges: Decarbonization and Geopolitical Tensions

Author:
Clarissa Lins and Guilherme Ferreira
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
The maritime sector is key to the international economy and trade, accounting for almost ¾ of total freight activity. Shipping is also the most energy-efficient way to transport cargo. “In the coming years, structural changes are expected in the global economy and maritime scenario”, pointed out the speakers during the event “Maritime challenges: decarbonization and geopolitical tensions” held in partnership between CEBRI and the Norwegian Consulate General in Rio de Janeiro.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Economy, Maritime, Trade, Shipping, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Brazil and Global Focus

139. Low-Carbon Transition Risks for Finance

Author:
Gregor Semieniuk, Emanuele Campiglio, and Neil Edwards
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The transition to a low‐carbon economy will entail a large‐scale structural change. Some industries will have to expand their relative economic weight, while other industries, especially those directly linked to fossil fuel production and consumption, will have to decline. Such a systemic shift may have major repercussions on the stability of financial systems, via abrupt asset revaluations, defaults on debt, and the creation of bubbles in rising industries. Studies on previous industrial transitions have shed light on the financial transition risks originating from rapidly rising “sunrise” industries. In contrast, a similar conceptual understanding of risks from declining “sunset” industries is currently lacking. We substantiate this claim with a critical review of the conceptual and historical literature, which also shows that most literature either examines structural change in the real economy, or risks to financial stability, but rarely both together. We contribute to filling this research gap by developing a consistent theoretical framework of the drivers, transmission channels, and impacts of the phase‐out of carbon‐intensive industries on the financial system and on the feedback from the financial system into the rest of the economy. We also review the state of play of policy aiming to protect the financial system from transition risks and spell out research implications.
Topic:
Climate Change, Finance, Economy, Risk, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Financial Systems
Political Geography:
Global Focus

140. Should Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Paternalism, and the ‘Ben Bernanke Problem’

Author:
George DeMartino
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
A widely held principle in professional ethics, across the professions, is the duty to speak truthfully when engaging in professional activity. Expert truth-telling has come to be recognized as vital to the Kantian respect that is due to clients and others who must act based on professional advice; and to the imperative to sustain trust. It is therefore notable that economics does not generally require truth telling among its members. Against truth telling, in cases where what an economist says can impact social welfare, the profession tends toward “prosocial lying”—lying that is thought to be in society’s best interests. The case of central banker statements is paradigmatic. Would economists have preferred that Ben Bernanke tell the truth about the threats to the US and world economy in the early days of the crisis of 2008, when doing so might have destabilized financial markets further? But prosocial lying comes at a cost to the profession, and to society. Not least, prosocial lying reflects a paternalistic ethos that has by now been challenged in other professions; and the prevalence of prosocial lying may undermine trust—both among economists, and between economists and those economists purport to serve.
Topic:
Political Economy, Economy, and Paternalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus