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1. Structural transformation and international trade: Evidence from the China shock

Author:
Clément Nedoncelle and Julien Wolfersberger
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
How does international trade affect structural transformation in developing countries? We use data on sectoral allocation of labour and value-added in 46 developing economies over the period 1995–2017 and exploit for identification plausibly exogenous variation in manufacturing imports from China. We find that the so-called ‘China shock’ largely slows down the transformation of low- and middle-income economies out of agriculture. In our main specification industrialization decreases by 0.49 per cent on average for each additional per cent of manufacturing imports from China. It highlights a competition effect where exposure to Chinese imports is largely detrimental to structural transformation. These results hold across geographical regions, with a difference in Sub-Saharan Africa, where international trade causes an increase in the size of the services sector.
Topic:
Development, Economies, Trade, Industrialization, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Operationalizing Growth Models

Author:
Lucio Baccaro and Sinisa Hadziabdic
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
We present a new methodology for operationalizing growth models based on import-adjusted demand components. Applying the methodology to the latest release of OECD Input-Output Tables, we calculate the growth contributions of consumption, investment, government expenditures, and exports for sixty-six countries in the periods 1995 to 2007 and 2009 to 2018 and identify the respective growth models. We find that most countries are export-led or domestic demand-led and that other forms of growth are rare. Our results corroborate previous classifications in comparative political economy but also differ from them in significant respects. Importantly, our classification improves on previous ones by covering not just the advanced capitalist economies but also Central and Eastern European and South-East Asian and Latin American countries. In a further step, we illustrate how the new indicators can be used to analyze the “drivers” of different types of growth. This examination reveals that there is a clear trade-off between consumption- and export-led growth in advanced Western economies in the period 1995 to 2007 and a dependence of export-led growth in these countries on real exchange rate devaluation in the same period, while export complexity is not a significant predictor of export-led growth.
Topic:
Political Economy, Economies, Economic Growth, and Exports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. The Value-added Creation Effect of Global Value Chain Participation: Industry-level Evidence from APEC Member Economies

Author:
Innwon Park and Soonchan Park
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
We analyze the value-added creation effect of GVC participation by applying a standard fixed effects regression model analysis with economy-wide country-industry data. We use OECD Inter-country Input-Output Tables covering 64 countries (21 APEC members and 43 non-APEC members) and 35 industries (1 Agriculture, forestry and fishing, 3 Mining, 16 Manufacturing, and 15 Service) between 2005 and 2015. We find that APEC member economies’ participation in GVC activities is not distinct from non-APEC member economies but the causal relationship between GVC participation and created domestic value-added is much stronger in APEC member economies. More specifically, from the qualitative evaluation on statistical data, we find that backward linkage has been stronger than forward linkage and both have been recently decreasing. The APEC industries’ upstream positions in production line have been slightly more distinguished than non-APEC industries. From the econometric regression analysis, we find that forward participation in GVCs is more desirable than backward participation in terms of creating domestic value-added. We also find that the industry position in middle stages of production line in contrast to earlier and later stages creates higher domestic value-added per output unit. This implies that the firm-specific conventional U-shaped “Smile Curve Hypothesis” is not applicable at the economy-wide country-industry level, especially in APEC member economies. This finding supports that manufacturing industries are still a major driving force for less developed APEC member economies to move up the development ladder. Considering that gains from GVC participation are diversified across industries and upgrading country-industry positions in GVCs is competitive among the interconnected countries, we strongly recommend for APEC member economies to construct effective domestic value chains and coordinate with other members during their process of upgrading GVC participation.
Topic:
Economies, Global Value Chains, and APEC
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Inclusive Growth and Structural Reforms in APEC Member Economies

Author:
Moonsung Kang and Geunhyo Kim
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This paper empirically analyses the simultaneous impacts of structural re-forms - trade liberalization, capital account liberalization, and financial liberal-ization - on inclusive growth using panel data for 17 APEC member econ-omies covering years from 1970 to 2016. The results show that capital ac-count liberalization and growth of market capitalization are positively associ-ated with inclusive growth of APEC member economies, especially non-high-income member economies. Trade liberalization has a negative impact on inclusive growth only of the whole income group. We further find the robust evidence that the expansion of domestic credits provided by financial sectors had a negative impact on inclusive growth. These results give implica-tions that governments of APEC member economies need to design trade policies in a way of expanding outcomes of trade liberalization in a more inclusive way and of increasing extensive margins of export sectors. In addi-tion, they need to design policies to increase access to the financial sector for the poor and socially marginalized people.
Topic:
Reform, Economies, Economic structure, Economic Growth, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Economic Growth and Public Debt in the Economic Globalization Era: An Empirical Investigation of Developing Countries

Author:
Barış Kablamacı
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
This paper empirically examines the causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in a sample of the 72 countries consisting of less developed and developing, country-by-country, in the period of 1970–2015. I apply the Toda-Yamamoto augmented Granger non-causality testing procedure. I observe a significant causality from economic growth to the public debt of a country in twenty-one countries. In fifteen countries, there is a unidirectional causality running from the public debt to economic growth. I find bi-directional causality in only nine countries and no causal relation in twenty-seven economies.
Topic:
Developing World, Economies, Economic Growth, Public Debt, and Causality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. World on the Move: The Changing Global Income Distribution and Its Implications for Consumption Patterns and Public Policies

Author:
Tomas Hellebrandt and Paolo Mauro
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
In the next two decades, hundreds of millions of people in emerging economies are projected to reach income levels at which they will be able to afford cars and air travel. As purchasing power increases worldwide, people will spend proportionately less on food and beverages and more on transportation. Higher spending on transportation, especially in China, India, and Sub-Saharan Africa, will increase pressures on the infrastructure in these economies and aggravate global climate change. Governments will need to respond to these challenges in a fiscally sustainable and environmentally responsible way.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Economies
Political Geography:
Global Focus