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122. Just Enough, Just in Time: Improving Sovereign Debt Restructuring for Creditors, Debtors and Citizens
- Author:
- Richard Gitlin and Brett House
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Recent international financial turmoil — most notably in Greece — has refocused attention on the risks posed by severe sovereign debt crises and weaknesses in our approaches to restructuring sovereign debt. Since early 2010, these risks have driven a range of debt-related policy proposals and actions in individual economies, across regions and at the international financial institutions. While some incremental first reform steps have been taken, these have not yet produced a more efficient, effective or resilient international framework for handling severe sovereign debt crises and effecting sovereign debt workouts. In contrast, some institutional and policy changes made in the heat of the euro-zone crisis have raised as many questions as they have resolved. Old policy ideas are also being resurrected and configured in new ways for current challenges. After years of substantial fiscal stimulus and exceptional monetary policies, high debt burdens across the advanced economies, fears of secular stagnation, signs of an imminent increase in US borrowing costs and deteriorating demographics together make a compelling case for concerted action to improve international arrangements for dealing with distressed sovereign debt.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
123. Corporate Debt in Emerging Economies: A Threat to Financial Stability?
- Author:
- Barry Eichengreen, Domenico Lombardi, Malcolm D. Knight, Yu Yongding, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Diane De Gramont, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Phillip R. Lane, Ugo Panizza, and Viral V. Acharya
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- During 1999-2007, the international balance sheets of emerging economies grew stronger through a combination of current account surpluses, a shift from debt funding to equity funding, and the stockpiling of liquid foreign reserves. This risk-mitigating strategy improved the international financial standing of many emerging economies and helped these economies withstand the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. However, a combination of domestic and external factors has led to a partial reversal of this strategy, with some emerging economies accumulating significant external debt since 2010. Previewed by the May 2013 “taper tantrum,” there has been considerable speculation that a tightening of dollar-funding conditions and a macroeconomic slowdown in emerging economies may result in financial instability in some emerging economies.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
124. Next Steps for the G20: Turkey 2015
- Author:
- Paul Martin, Thomas A. Bernes, Olaf Weber, Hongying Wang, and Kevin Carmichael
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- On November 15-16, 2015, leaders of the world's major advanced and emerging economies will meet in Antalya, Turkey for the G20 summit. In this special report, CIGI experts present their perspectives and policy analysis on the key priorities facing the G20 at Antalya. The Right Honourable Paul Martin states that the multilateral institutions created to make globalization work should be a G20 priority. Thomas A. Bernes asks whether G20 leaders and the institutions that support them can articulate a “policy upgrade” that brings more credibility than last year’s Brisbane Action Plan. Olaf Weber argues that the next step for the G20 should be the development of policies and guidelines that help to manage climate change and financial risk in a prudential way. Hongying Wang examines China's rare opportunity as it assumes the presidency of the G20 to push for collective new thinking on how to establish a less fragmented and more coherent global framework for investment governance that balances the interests of different stakeholders. Finally, Kevin Carmichael suggests that the G20 should elevate gender balance to the top of its agenda.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Governance, G20, Financial Markets, and Turkey
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
125. The Digital Trade Imbalance and Its Implications for Internet Governance
- Author:
- Susan Ariel Aaronson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Today, information is currency; it facilitates productivity, exchange, technology and trade. Information is also the building block of the digital economy (an economy based on digital technologies — products and services that facilitate the creation, storage, analysis and sharing of data and information). Although many countries are gaining expertise and market share, one country, the United States, dominates both the global digital economy and digital trade (commerce in products and services delivered via the Internet). The United States is also the key force behind efforts to develop a system of trade rules to govern cross-border information flows.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, Mass Media, and Digital Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
126. Strategic Insights: Economic Power: Time to Double Down
- Author:
- Professor John F. Troxell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- A recent editorial in The New York Times asked the question, “Who threatens America most?” It proceeded to compare recent pronouncements by incoming senior military leaders, the President, the FBI director, and finally the Director of National Intelligence. The major candidates included the usual nation states (Russia, North Korea, and China), a few nonstate terrorist organizations (ISIS and al-Qaeda), and a couple of unattributed capabilities (weapons of mass destruction and cyberattacks). The editorial concluded with the lament: “If officials cannot agree on what the most pressing threats are, how can they develop the right strategies and properly allocate resources?”1 Given the confusion and uncertainty generated by the current strategic environment, compounded by America’s resource-driven retrenchment, it is a fair question. However, I contend that we could pursue a more focused national strategy and do a better job of allocating resources if we focus on the opportunities as opposed to this wide array of threats. The opportunity that beckons is the increasingly interconnected global economy and the integral role played by the United States in both its institutional design and future evolution. A functioning, interconnected global economy will mitigate most, if not all, of the previously mentioned threats, whereas a fractured and disconnected global economy will exacerbate them.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Economics, Governance, and Global Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
127. Constructing Quality: Producer Power, Market Organization, and the Politics of High Value-Added Markets.
- Author:
- Elizabeth Carter
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- Economists assume increased producer flexibility creates production advantages. So why do inefficient French quality wine producers dominate their flexible, efficient Italian counterparts? French AOC wine producers created “corporatist” producer organizations which served three purposes: encouraged increased product quality information across the supply chain; allowed for the emergence of a unique production style; and enabled producers to define their production methods as “quality” via state regulation. Italian DOC wine producers have fragmented political structures at both the regional and national levels, causing producers to rely more on the price mechanism and less on political structures to coordinate supply chain transactions. Market asymmetries persist across the supply chain, making it difficult for producers to guarantee quality and adversely shaping their potential production and brand strategies. Solving supply chain problems through representative political institutions yields superior economic outcomes than uncoordinated market transactions because the former corrects market power asymmetries.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Politics, and Regulation
- Political Geography:
- France, Italy, and Global Focus
128. Quality of Government and the Relationship between Natural Disasters and Child Poverty: A Comparative Analysis.
- Author:
- Adel Daoud, Bjorn Hallerod, and Debarati Guha Sapir
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the degree to which exposure to reoccurring natural disasters of various kinds explains seven dimensions of severe child poverty in 67 middle- and low-income countries. It also analyzes how certain institutional conditions, namely the quality of government (QoG), have moderating effects on the relationship between disasters and child poverty. Two main hypotheses are tested. The first is that disasters do have an adverse average effect on severe poverty. The second is that disasters reveal a positive coefficient (i.e., more disasters, more deprivation) but that higher levels of QoG negatively moderate this effect, i.e., the adverse effect of disasters is diminished by increasingly high QoG levels. From 70 possible combinations of relationships (7 types of deprivation combined with 10 types of natural disaster measures), 11 have the expected correlation between disasters and child deprivation and only one has the expected interactive correlation between quality of government, disasters, and child poverty. Several unexpected results could also be observed which are discussed in the paper along with recommendations for future research.
- Topic:
- Economics, Natural Disasters, Governance, Research, and Child Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
129. The BRICS Development Bank: A New Tool for South-South Cooperation?
- Author:
- Jan Schablitzki
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and Peace
- Abstract:
- The Sixth BRICS Summit, held in July 2014 in Fortaleza, Brazil, resulted in agreements to establish a New Development Bank (NDB) as well as a Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA). This Policy Brief discusses the impact of the NDB on the existing architecture of development finance, focusing on the bank’s potential contribution to the BRICS’ South-South cooperation. The first section outlines the BRICS countries’ rational for establishing the NDB. In the following section potential development paradigms that are likely to be adopted by the NDB are addressed. Since no decision has been taken on the bank’s future governance, this section will be based on the experiences from the BRICS’ national development banks. Once the NDB’s governance is agreed upon, it will impact whether and to what extent the new bank will cooperate with the existing international system of development finance. A third section discusses the NDB’s potential appeal for the Global South. The Global South shares with the BRICS a disappointment with the existing system, and connects specific hopes and expectations with the foundation of the NDB. Examining the Banks effect on South-South cooperation, the section includes prospects on the Bank’s capital potential and by that its potential contribution to the prevalent demand for infrastructure financing in developing countries. A final section summarises the points made and aims to put the present perceptions of the NDB in rather cautious perspectives.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, and Developing World
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
130. Disruptive Innovation: Risk-Shifting and Precarity in the Age of Uber
- Author:
- Emily Isaac
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Over the past 30 years, economic restructuring and advancements in technological innovation have allowed for the emergence of new business models that disrupt many longstanding industries. Much of the industry disruption that we see today stems from tech companies and startups that have developed a better cost-model by utilizing smart phone-enabled apps to offer simpler and less expensive products and services than those offered by competing incumbents. Uber Technologies Inc., an on-demand ridesharing service that connects passengers to local drivers in real time using smartphone technology, is one of the most disruptive, successful tech start-ups yet. Uber’s success, which can be attributed to a low fixed-cost model that provides ride-seekers a faster and more reliable alternative to the traditional taxi and promises drivers a higher hourly earning through the avoidance of costly regulations, has severely disrupted the taxi service industry. In cities around the world, taxi companies are losing their customers and their drivers to Uber and similar “transportation network companies” (TNCs), such as Lyft, Sidecar, and Hailo.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Science and Technology, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus