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1. Macroeconomic Management Meets the New Economy

Author:
Commission on Global Economic Transformation
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Finance and the macroeconomy, both policy and industry practices as well as academic research, have evolved substantially in recent years. While the old questions of business cycles, macroeconomic management, financial regulation, and social protection are still being debated, we are now confronted with new developments in the economy, characterized by digital technology, new modes of production and business models, and changing employment relations. Macroeconomics and finance need urgent rethinking as the global economy transforms. Our gathering on March 5, 2019 brought together economists, policymakers, financial regulators, and industry practitioners from around the world. We heard diverse perspectives on multilateralism, pension and labor market reform, international trade, and risks in the world economy, and we grappled with issues on stagnant wages, public debt, fiscal and monetary policy, and banking reforms. Our discussion was by no means exhaustive or conclusive, but we attempted to harness the group’s collective wisdom to address some of the most prominent questions of our day. This document is intended to inform our commissioners as they develop CGET’s final report and to share our timely conversation with policymakers and the general public. Fomenting multidisciplinary, critical discourse is one of the most important responsibilities of this initiative, and we sincerely thank the staff at the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), our dedicated Commissioners, and our outside experts for helping us to promote this dialogue.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Regulation, Digital Economy, Economic Theory, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

2. Towards a More Inclusive Globalization: An Anti-Social Dumping Scheme

Author:
Dani Rodrik
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:
Theory and empirics both suggest that international trade has sharp distributional implications. Furthermore, redistribution caused by trade is often viewed by the general public as more harmful or disruptive than other domestic market shocks. I discuss conditions under which there may be a legitimate case for restricting trade to promote domestic social inclusion, and propose a specific policy – a social safeguards clause – targeting those circumstances.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Economic Policy, Economic Theory, and Trade Liberalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Taxing multinational corporations in the 21st century

Author:
Gabriel Zucman
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:
Globalization and the rise of intangible capital have increased tax avoidance opportunities for large firms dramatically. 40% of multinational profits are shifted to tax havens each year globally and the United States loses about 15% of its corporate income tax revenue because of this shifting. I discuss the evidence on the redistributive effects of international tax competition. I then present a proposal to reform the corporate tax that would remove any incentive for firms to shift profits or move real activity to lowtax places. Contrary to a widespread view, it is possible to tax multinational companies (potentially at high rates) in a globalized world, even in the absence of international policy coordination.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Regulation, Multinational Corporations, Tax Systems, Economic Policy, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Missing from the Mainstream: The Biophysical Basis of Production and the Public Economy

Author:
June Sekera
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Just as mainstream economics neglects the biophysical basis of production and disregards energy as the most fundamental input, it likewise ignores the existence of the public economy. Both types of denialism threaten the ability of societies to develop energy solutions that can meet the needs of the polity. This article calls for a new theory of the public economy and it outlines elements of such a theory. Both a biophysical economics and a new public economics are needed to address the energy challenges confronting modern societies.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Economic Theory, and Public Sector
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Explaining the Prevalence, Scaling and Variance of Urban Phenomena

Author:
Andres Gomez-Lievano, Oscar Patterson-Lomba, and Ricardo Hausmann
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The prevalence of many urban phenomena changes systematically with population size1. We propose a theory that unifies models of economic complexity2, 3 and cultural evolution4 to derive urban scaling. The theory accounts for the difference in scaling exponents and average prevalence across phenomena, as well as the difference in the variance within phenomena across cities of similar size. The central ideas are that a number of necessary complementary factors must be simultaneously present for a phenomenon to occur, and that the diversity of factors is logarithmically related to population size. The model reveals that phenomena that require more factors will be less prevalent, scale more superlinearly and show larger variance across cities of similar size. The theory applies to data on education, employment, innovation, disease and crime, and it entails the ability to predict the prevalence of a phenomenon across cities, given information about the prevalence in a single city.
Topic:
Economics, Urbanization, Employment, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

6. A Note on Credit Allocation, Income Distribution, and the Circuit of Capital (pdf)

Author:
Paulo dos Santos
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This note considers the relationship between credit allocation and the aggregate, class distribution of income in the Circuit of Capital. Production and consumption credit inject means of purchase in different locations in the monetary circuits of capitalist reproduction. On the basis of comparative-dynamic analysis of the properties of steady-state evolutions, the note shows that production credit increases the wage share in total income, while consumption credit increases profit shares. These findings hold in general for any evolution in which sectoral revenue- elasticities of outlays measure less than unity. The note also motivates a new endogenous approach to the aggregate distribution of income, and offers new analytical tools facilitating work based on demand-constrained models of the Circuit of Capital.
Topic:
Inequality, Income Inequality, Economic Theory, Credit, and Capital
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. A History of Polyvalent Structural Parameters: the Case of Instrument Variable Estimato

Author:
Duo Qin and Yanqun Zhang
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper investigates the rise and fall of the IV method in macro-econometric models and its subsequent revival in micro-econometric models. The key findings are: (i) the IV method implicitly breaks the contemporaneously circular causality postulated in a simultaneous- equation model (SEM) by redefining the conditional variable concerned as a suboptimal conditional expectation of it; (ii) the IV method falls out of favour in macro-econometrics mainly because of lack of empirical validations for such redefinitions; (iii) the IV method wins its popularity in micro-econometrics by its capacity to produce multiple suboptimal conditional expectations of the latent conditional variables of interest under the disguise of an SEM consistent estimator; nevertheless, (iv) such suboptimal conditional expectations give rise to the insurmountable difficulty of credibly interpreting the IV-based parameter estimates, especially in the case of prognosticated omitted variable bias. The findings highlight the methodological drawback of the estimator-centric strategy of textbook econometrics.
Topic:
Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, and Microeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Modelling Scale Effect in Crosssection Data:The Case of Hedonic Price Regression

Author:
Duo Qin and Yimeng Liu
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
An innovative and simple experiment with cross-section data ordering is carried out to exploit a basic and common feature between many economic variables – nonlinear scale dependence. The experiment is tried on hedonic price regression models using two data sets, one for automobiles and the other computers. The key findings are: (a) Hedonic price indices can be significantly biased if they are constructed using models which disregard possible nonlinear scale effects latent in random data samples; (b) Scale-based data ordering offers considerable potential to filter such scale-dependent information from cross-section samples; (c) The filtering can be easily carried out by systematic adoption of dynamic modelling methods.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economic Theory, Models, and Price Regression
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: An alternative Theoretical Framework

Author:
Bruno Bonizzi
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper represents a theoretical contribution to the analysis of international capital flows. It outlines an alternative theoretical framework based on Post-Keynesian monetary theory, and in particular on Hyman Minsky’s Wall Street paradigm and concept of Money-manager capitalism and Jan Toporowski’s theory of capital market inflation. The key aspects of such an approach are, firstly, that in a monetary analysis capital flows need to be understood as “flows of funds”, as opposed to the traditional understanding of capital flows based on “real” decision, such as saving and investment. A consequence of this is the need of focusing on gross rather than net capital flows. Secondly, when considering emerging markets, the asymmetric nature of the international monetary system must be stressed. Thirdly, it is important to understand the specific forms that capital flows take: in today’s world, pension funds and other institutional investors — alongside banks — are key players in the financial markets, and their role in shaping capital flows to emerging markets must be explicitly recognised. This paper synthesises these elements by understanding capital flows as the result of institutional investors portfolio choice. Along the lines of Minsky and Toporowski, portfolio choice by institutional investors need to be assessed in relation to their balance sheet structure, beside risk/return trade-offs and general state of risk aversion
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Capital Flows, Investment, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Lange and Keynes

Author:
Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Lange engaged with Keynes in the matter of Keynes‟s macroeconomics, and over econometrics. Lange‟s interpretation of the Keynesian macroeconomic model laid the foundation for the neo-classical synthesis. But it was limited in its monetary economics. Lange also intervened in the Keynes-Tinbergen dispute over the scope and significance of econometrics. Lange collaborated in a paper that conceded Keynes‟s main point that empirical investigation could not determine theory, but insisted that theories could nevertheless be tested empirically. The paper was never publish and Keynes, unconvinced, planned to recruit Kalecki to his critique of econometrics.
Topic:
Socialism/Marxism, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, and Keynes
Political Geography:
Global Focus