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221. Horrible Trade-offs in a Pandemic: Lockdowns, Transfers, Fiscal Space, and Compliance

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann and Ulrich Schetter
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
In this paper, we develop a heterogeneous agent general equilibrium framework to analyze optimal joint policies of a lockdown and transfer payments in times of a pandemic. In our model, the effectiveness of a lockdown in mitigating the pandemic depends on endogenous compliance. A more stringent lockdown deepens the recession which implies that poorer parts of society find it harder to subsist. This reduces their compliance with the lockdown, and may cause deprivation of the very poor, giving rise to an excruciating trade-off between saving lives from the pandemic and from deprivation. Lump-sum transfers help mitigate this trade-off. We identify and discuss key trade-offs involved and provide comparative statics for optimal policy. We show that, ceteris paribus, the optimal lockdown is stricter for more severe pandemics and in richer countries. We then consider a government borrowing constraint and show that limited fiscal space lowers the optimal lockdown and welfare, and increases the aggregate death burden during the pandemic. We finally discuss distributional consequences and the political economy of fighting a pandemic.
Topic:
Development, Government, Political Economy, Inequality, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

222. Doing Development Better

Author:
Christopher Datta
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Across the developing world the United States runs aid programs that have met the laudable goal of reducing infant mortality and maternal death resulting from childbirth. We have done some astonishing things, such as completely eliminating smallpox. Now we are responding to the COVID-19 pandemic by working to equip local communities with the tools needed to fight back against the coronavirus. Effective and inexpensive vaccines are everywhere administered to countless children who would otherwise die or be crippled by disease. More vaccines are on the way, perhaps even one for malaria, one of the biggest killers in the developing world. It is nothing short of a miracle. And yet the impact of these efforts in many countries could well be a legacy of war, famine, misery and the creation of new and even worse diseases.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, USAID, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

223. The Future Of Microfinance

Author:
Muhammad Yunus
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Muhammad Yunus is an economist and the founder of Grameen Bank, which provides microcredit to the impoverished without requiring collateral. Yunus and Grameen were awarded the Noble Peace Prize in 2006.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Capitalism, Finance, and Microcredit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

224. Women and Girls as Change Agents

Author:
Catherine Bertini and Alyssa Ceretti
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Women and Girls as Change Agents JANUARY 6, 2020 By: Catherine Bertini, Distinguished Fellow, Global Food and Agriculture; Alyssa Ceretti, Executive and Research Assistant, Global FoodBanking Network Achieving universal primary education and eliminating gender disparity in primary and secondary education have been among the global development community’s goals for two decades. As a fundamental requirement for lifelong health and opportunity, education underlies the success of communities, nations, and the world. Yet girls today are still being left behind. UN data shows of the estimated 25 million primary school-age children globally who were never enrolled in school in 2014, two-thirds were girls. This paper argues that educating girls has the power to break the cycle of poverty and transform societies. Educating girls has a multiplier effect: better health, prevention of early marriage and violence, lower fertility rates, higher family incomes, stronger community engagement, and better outcomes for their own children. Investing in girls’ education can put countries on the path to a more stable, prosperous future. The barriers to educating girls are numerous and complicated. Safety issues, school fees, family demands, and social and cultural norms, as well as lack of access to qualified teachers and adequate facilities, often combine to keep girls out of school. This paper argues that despite ample evidence of the transformative power of educating girls, not enough is being done to advance the advocacy for, research on, and promotion of girls’ education and empowerment. As the author states, education for all girls is not just a right, but a responsibility.
Topic:
Development, Education, Gender Issues, Poverty, and Women
Political Geography:
Global Focus

225. The Human Security Deficit as a Cause for Migratory and Refugee Flows: The design of an Accurate Response / El déficit de seguridad humana como causa de los flujos migratorios: el diseño de una respuesta precisa

Author:
Gracia Abad Quintanal
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War has given way to an impressive tranformation of the security concept, which has experienced an incredible expansion over the last few decades. This expansion has also gone hand by hand with the emergence of new concepts which might allow better analysis in this realm. The human security concept stands out among such new concepts as a result of its analytical value, in spite of all the criticism it has received. One of the questions which has become securitized in the context of the mentioned expansion of the security concept is migration. However, even if migrations have been approached too frequently from a traditional security concept based on the state and its sovereignty, the human seecurity concepts seems a much better tool for the analysis of this reality and its causes. In this sense, we cannot forget that people become migrants or refugees because they see questioned their personal security. Likewise, we have to pay attention to the extent to which, the host states and, particularly, their societies, may see their political, economic and societal security in danger. Therefore, the analysis should pay attention to the security challenges of both, host societies and migrants and refugees. Besides, only an analysis on the basis of the human security concept will allow us to come up with an accurate response to the question of migratory and refugee flows, this is a response which pays attention to some key aspects such as conflict prevention and management an growth and development promotion in the countries of origin of migrants and refugees, always in cooperation with those countries themselves. Such un analysis will show the indivisible nature of security and the fact that the security of host societies and that of migrants and refugees, far from being incompatible, go hand by hand.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Refugees, Conflict, and Human Security
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

226. Military Spending and Official Development Assistance in Recipient States: Is there a Relationship?

Author:
Nan Tian and Diego Lopes da Silva
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Official development assistance (ODA) plays an important and complementary role in promoting development in low- and middle-income states. Previous research in the literature has shown that ODA can have unintended con­sequences by enabling recipient states to shift ‘freed-up’ resources away from activities now funded by ODA to other spending categories. This literature has argued that the ‘freed-up’ resources could be funding military spending. This SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security queries these con­clusions and contributes to the debate by placing the relation­ship between ODA and military spending in context. The results show that, for low-income states, armed conflict is a major explanatory factor in determin­ing the positive association between increases in ODA and increases in military spending. While the existence of armed conflict drives both higher military spending and the need for higher levels of ODA, peace helps to lower military spending and states’ reliance on external aid.
Topic:
Development, Military Spending, Conflict, Peace, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

227. The Geopolitics of Food Security: Barriers to the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger

Author:
Jiayi Zhou, Lisa Marie Dellmuth, Kevin M. Adams, Tina-Simone Neset, and Nina von Uexkull
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Assessing the prospects for Zero Hunger—Sustainable Development Goal 2—requires an understanding of food security that goes beyond developmental or humanitarian issues, to include linkages with geopolitics. Geopolitical challenges cut across areas such as natural resources, trade, armed conflict and climate change where unilateralism and zero-sum approaches to security directly hamper efforts to eradicate hunger and undermine the frameworks that govern those efforts. The report provides an overview of how geopolitics interacts with these areas. Competition for agricultural resources can be both a cause and a consequence of geopolitical rivalry. International trade, while essential for food security, also creates vulnerabilities through supply disruptions—sometimes politically motivated. Armed conflict is a driver of food insecurity, which can itself feed into social unrest and violence. Climate change interacts with all three phenomena, reshaping both the physical landscape and political calculus. These overlapping linkages require further integrated policy engagement and analysis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, International Trade and Finance, Governance, Food Security, Geopolitics, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

228. Pathways of Climate Insecurity: Guidance for Policymakers

Author:
Malin Mobjörk, Florian Krampe, and Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Policymakers are increasingly concerned with the climate-related security risks—the adverse effects of climate change on peace and security. This SIPRI Policy Brief outlines four interrelated pathways between climate change and conflict: (a) livelihoods, (b) migration and mobility, (c) armed group tactics, and (d) elite exploitation. These illustrate the relationship between short- and long-term environmental changes linked to climate change; their impact on the root causes and dynamics of violent conflict; and the critical role of human action, reaction and inaction in mediating violent outcomes. As a policymaking tool, pathways help to identify and navigate the political space for mitigating violent conflict. They can support decision makers in navigating these complex relationships in conflict-affected and climate-exposed regions by integrating local context into analyses of the security and conflict risks of climate change. Pathways also help to facilitate policy planning in areas such as livelihoods, mobility, resource management and governance.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

229. Higher economic growth in poor countries, lower migration flows to the OECD: Revisiting the migration hump with panel data

Author:
David Benček and Claas Schneiderheinze
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Comparing emigration rates of countries at different stages of economic development, an inverse u-shape emerges. Although merely based on cross-sectional evidence, the“migration hump” is widely interpreted as a causal relationship. Therefore, economic progress in developing countries is assumed to increase migration. For policy makers in destination countries that implies a sensitive trade-off between supporting development and reducing immigration pressures. In this paper we investigate whether the migration hump holds up to more scrutiny, finding that the cross-sectional pattern is misleading. Using 35 years of data on migration flows to OECD destinations, we successfully reproduce the hump-shape in the cross-section. However, more rigorous fixed effects panel estimations that exploit the variation over time consistently show a negative association between income and emigration. This result is independent of the level of income a country starts out at and thus casts doubt on any causal interpretation of the migration hump.
Topic:
Development, International Political Economy, Migration, Economic Growth, Economic Development, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and Emigration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

230. Assessing Asia: Sub-Saharan Africa Global Value Chain Linkages

Author:
Heiwai Tang, Douglas Zhihua Zeng, and Albert Zeufack
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper studies the relationship between Asia’s economic engagements in Africa and individual African nations’ participation in global value chains (GVC) over the past two decades. We find that while overall exports from Africa to Asia are still highly concentrated in resource-intensive sectors, a few African countries have exploited the emerging opportunities to diversify export portfolios through exporting to Asia. Each African nation has a distinct main trade partner in Asia, in contrast to the common view that China has become the dominant trade partner of most African nations. Using a panel data set for 46 African countries over 16 years from 2000 and 2015, we find that exports to Asia are positively correlated with exports to the rest of the world, suggesting that in contrast to trade diversion, trade with Asia complements exports to other countries. Asian economic engagement in the continent is associated with countries’ exports “moving up the value chain”, as measured by the upstreamness index proposed by Antras et al. (2012). However, such process was accompanied by a reduction in the length of their production chains, implying that fewer stages and countries are now involved in the production of exported goods.
Topic:
Development, International Political Economy, Natural Resources, Partnerships, Exports, Trade, Global Value Chains, and Data
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and Global Focus