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1. The Global Terrorist Threat Forecast in 2025

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The global terrorist threat remains persistent and pervasive as the world moves into 2025. Armed conflicts from Ukraine to Gaza and destabilisation by both State and non-State actors are redefining international stability. The influence of groups such as Islamic State, al-Qaeda and Iranian-backed militias underscores the enduring risks. Key challenges include geopolitical rivalries, radicalisation and increasingly sophisticated cyber and physical attacks. With the Middle East at the epicentre of escalating tensions and Africa emerging as a new hotspot, coordinated international efforts are essential to prevent and counter threats. States must strengthen cooperation in intelligence, security and strategic foresight to deal with a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous global landscape.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Radicalization, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Collaboration, Threat Assessment, 2023 Gaza War, Transnational Threats, and Salafi-Jihadism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

2. A Wicked Problem: Assessing the Future Jihadist Threat

Author:
Colonel Daniel R. Moy
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The tensions between nationalist, regional, and global terrorist agendas, further complicated by the Shia and Sunni divide, help illuminate the “wicked” nature of the jihadist problem. Far from monolithic, the enemy in the war on terror is a confederation of competing actors joined together in a shared contempt for Israel, the West, and apostate governments. The ideological currents that fuel these religious and political movements are diverse and continuously activated along independent, mutually-supporting pathways—revolutionary, sectarian, regional anti-West, or global-caliphate strains—that tend to immunize the organizations themselves against hierarchical fragility or decapitation. While counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria may have weakened terrorist capabilities in the short term, they have had the opposite effect on the global map, driving organizations like al Qaeda and ISIS to pursue alternate strategies and discover new safe havens. The alarming reality is that despite our extensive, combined efforts to curb the threat of jihadist terrorism, the problem has only morphed and metastasized since 9/11.​
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Ideology, Jihad, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

3. A Feminist Foreign Policy Approach to Counter-terrorism

Author:
Shannon Zimmerman
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:
This brief explores what a feminist foreign policy approach to counter-terrorism might look like. A key role of foreign policy is to ensure a state’s national security. However, the field of national security in most countries is deeply gendered. State approaches to addressing terrorism and violent extremism are no exception to this, despite clear evidence that gender-sensitive approaches to counter-terrorism and preventing/countering violence extremism are more effective. This brief highlights the value added by including feminist approaches to counter-terrorism and explores what such an approach might entail. Last, it describes how Australia might apply a feminist approach to its current counter-terrorism activities to ensure initiatives are more comprehensive, effective and sustainable.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, and Feminism
Political Geography:
Australia and Global Focus

4. CTC Sentinel: October 2024 Issue

Author:
Don Rassler, Sean Morrow, Brian Dodwell, Paul Cruickshank, and Sean Morrow
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
I’m thankful to borrow this space from our Editor-in Chief, Paul Cruikshank. Our CTC Sentinel, its editorial board, and our incredible contributors have long provided our readers with details, data, and insight on terrorist groups, tools of violence, trends, and counterterrorism. In short, Sentinel has helped drive the conversations on what to think about for our global audience. As the United States changes administrations in the face of extraordinary complexity, we opted to frame this issue slightly differently. This issue is focused on how we think about terrorism and counterterrorism. The feature article this month comes from Don Rassler and focuses on the pressure states place on violent extremist organizations (VEOs) and how those campaigns of pressure can defend against threats and degrade the capabilities of VEOs. We are privileged to feature General Bryan Fenton, Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, in this month’s Foxhole interview. He shares his insight on the global threat, the critical role of SOF in strategic competition, and the importance of allies and partners in the global CT fight. Brian Fishman, co-founder of Cinder and formerly Director of Counterterrorism, Dangerous Organizations, and Content Policy at Facebook, helps us understand the realm of online and digital counter terrorism through five key lessons from his time in industry. Dr. Daniel Milton, Director of Terrorism Studies at the George C. Marshall Center, gives us critical insight into how groups choose to expand to external operations (EXOPS) based on a group’s opportunity and willingness to “go big.” In a complementary article, our Executive Director, Brian Dodwell, teams up with Don Rassler and Paul Cruickshank to use survey data to provide perspectives on indicators and warning (I&W) for terrorism, key challenges in the I&W space, and how I&W approaches could evolve. Finally, I collaborate with Don Rassler to offer a few thoughts on CT return on investment, specifically at the intersection of CT and strategic competition, through a new framework designed by Don and informed by interviews with regional experts and partners from the CT community. The article demonstrates the returns to key efforts with regard to mitigation and influence where CT and strategic competition converge.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. El futuro del terrorismo y su prevención

Author:
Óscar Jaime
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
La complejidad del fenómeno terrorista plantea numerosas dificultades que impiden anticipar de forma precisa su evolución. Asumiendo esta realidad, el presente texto aborda aquellos condicionantes que previsiblemente estarán presentes en el futuro, influyendo de forma activa o pasiva sobre el devenir del fenómeno. Finalmente, se ofrecerán algunas claves que deberán ser tomadas en consideración para resultar eficaces en la respuesta.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Violence Prevention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. May 2022 Issue

Author:
Gary A. Ackerman, Zachary Kallenborn, Philipp C. Bleek, Paul Cruickshank, Audrey Kurth Cronin, and Jaime Yassif
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
With more than a million Americans dead from COVID-19 and the pandemic associated directly or indirectly with around 15 million deaths globally by the end of 2021 according to World Health Organization estimates, it is essential to reassess the global biological threat landscape, including the possibility that bioterrorists or other bad actors might seek to exploit advances in biotechnology to engineer a future pandemic. In a joint effort, the Combating Terrorism Center and the Department of Chemistry and Life Science at West Point have assembled some of the best and brightest thinkers in the counterterrorism, policy, and scientific communities around the world for their perspectives and analysis on the evolution of the biological threat picture. The result is a two-volume set of special issues, with the second volume being published this month. In the feature article, Gary Ackerman, Zachary Kallenborn, and Philipp Bleek present a bioterrorism classification schema to evaluate the pandemic’s impact on bioterrorism. They assess that “when it comes to bioterrorism, the pandemic probably has not moved the needle much. Although COVID-19 might encourage apocalyptic cults, some radical environmentalists, some extreme right-wing groups, and some Islamist extremist groups toward biological weapons, most other terrorist groups are more likely to be discouraged. The pandemic has bolstered some terrorists’ bio-related capabilities but in at most modest ways. At the same time, lessons from the COVID-19 experience may both help reduce the consequences of a future attack and heighten perceptions of bioterrorism risk.” Our interview is with Shmuel Shapira, who served as Director General of the Israel Institute for Biological Research between 2013 and 2021. Audrey Kurth Cronin argues that “the most significant new risks of [biological] attacks come largely from insider threats by knowledgeable scientists with questionable motives, proxy actors backed by adversarial states, or even those experimenting with new biotechnologies irresponsibly.” She writes that “the old threats of bioterrorism remain, but they are joined by new ones that are falling between the seams of biology and other disciplines, especially engineering, data science, and computer science, and especially at the intersection between molecular biology and artificial intelligence.” Jaime Yassif argues it is vital to “take action to safeguard the life sciences to prevent biotechnology catastrophe, in addition to bolstering law enforcement and intelligence capabilities to more effectively anticipate and prevent bioterrorism and other biological threats.” She writes: “In biosecurity, there is no single solution or intervention that can eliminate all risk. That is why a layered defense is needed, in which multiple interventions in aggregate add up to substantial risk reduction.”
Topic:
Science and Technology, Counter-terrorism, COVID-19, Biotechnology, and Bioterrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Global Focus

7. April 2022 Issue

Author:
Stephen Hummel, F. John Burpo, Jeremy Hershfield, Andrew Kick, and Kevin J. O'Donovan
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed nearly one million American lives. It has upended many more and produced disastrous consequences around the world. But it could have been even more catastrophic had Western nations and companies not developed highly effective vaccines. As the world hopefully begins to emerge from the pandemic, it is important to reassess the global biological threat landscape, including the possibility that bioterrorists or other bad actors might seek to exploit advances in biotechnology to engineer a future pandemic. In a joint effort, the Combating Terrorism Center and the Department of Chemistry and Life Science at West Point have assembled some of the best and brightest thinkers in the counterterrorism, policy, and scientific communities around the world for their perspectives and analysis on the evolution of the biological threat picture. The result is a two-volume set of special issues, with the second volume being published next month. The feature article of this volume anticipates how bioterrorists may exploit tunable viral agents in a new age of bioterrorism. The article is authored by Major Stephen Hummel and Colonel F. John Burpo with Lieutenant Colonel Jeremy Hershfield, Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Kick, Kevin O’Donovan, and Colonel Jason Barnhill. They write: “Components of a disease such as transmissibility, lethality, and the infectious window can potentially be modified for desired tactical, operational, or strategic effects. While this capability is currently beyond the skills and knowledge of the biology enthusiast, a trained individual would possess such skills and knowledge, though they may lack the necessary material and infrastructure support. Hence, it is necessary to develop and maintain capabilities that can respond to a variety of pathogens and possible effects.” This issue features an interview with Lawrence Kerr, who until his retirement from government service earlier this year was the Director of the Office of Pandemics and Emerging Threats in the Office of Global Affairs at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. We also interview Brad Ringeisen, the Executive Director of the Innovative Genomics Institute. Before his retirement from government service in July 2020, Dr. Ringeisen served as the Director of the Biological Technologies Office at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Filippa Lentzos, Gregory Koblentz, and Joseph Rodgers argue “the biological risk landscape is rapidly evolving and presents significant new challenges to preventing the accidental, reckless, or malicious misuse of biology. At the same time, oversight systems to ensure that life sciences research is conducted safely, securely, and responsibly are falling behind. An urgent overhaul to realign biorisk management with contemporary risks is needed.”
Topic:
Health, Counter-terrorism, Risk, Pandemic, and Bioterrorism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Masculinities and Violent Extremism

Author:
Aleksandra Dier and Gretchen Baldwin
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
While only a small percentage of men become involved in violent extremism, the majority of violent extremists are men. Across the ideological spectrum, violent extremist and terrorist groups exploit male sentiments of emasculation and loss of power and appeal to ideas of manhood in their recruitment efforts. Yet policymakers rarely focus on gender to help them understand why some men engage in violence and others do not or what role peaceful notions of masculinity play in preventing radicalization and terrorism. Similarly, male-dominated counterterrorism institutions rarely pose the question of how masculinities shape these institutions and their approaches to counterterrorism and countering violent extremism (CVE). This report discusses masculinities—the socially constructed ideas of what it means to be a man—as they are constructed and used by violent extremist groups, as they exist in and interact with society, and as they interplay with the state. It draws on examples pertaining to both “Islamist” and extreme right-wing terrorism, considering differences not just between but also within these ideologies. The report argues that while current efforts to “mainstream gender” in counterterrorism and CVE do not focus on masculinities, a masculinities-focused approach must avoid repeating the shortcomings of existing counterterrorism and CVE approaches aimed at women; be grounded in a robust human rights framework to avoid perpetuating gendered harms; be based on an understanding of the links between extremist violence and gender inequality at the societal level; and recognize and address the harmful role masculinities play within counterterrorism and CVE institutions themselves. It concludes by recommending that state, multilateral, and civil society actors engaged in counterterrorism and CVE: Conduct more policy-oriented research and analysis on the link between masculinities and violent extremism; Integrate a gender perspective—including a focus on masculinities—across all counterterrorism and CVE policy and programming; Monitor and evaluate the gendered impact of counterterrorism and CVE interventions using a robust human rights framework; and Address the harmful role masculinities play within counterterrorism and CVE institutions.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Women, Peace, Men, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. An Unfinished Agenda: Carving Out Space for Humanitarian Action in the UN Security Council’s Counterterrorism Resolutions and Related Sanctions

Author:
Agathe Sarfati
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Since the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001, the UN Security Council has developed two main streams of work related to counterterrorism: the sanctions regime established by Resolution 1267 and measures under Resolution 1373. However, these resolutions and related sanctions regimes have been criticized for failing to safeguard and facilitate impartial humanitarian action. In response, the council has progressively incorporated language that better considers international humanitarian law (IHL) and humanitarian principles. Despite these efforts, humanitarian organizations have continued to criticize counterterrorism resolutions and related sanctions regimes for inhibiting humanitarian activities. This policy paper considers how the Security Council’s counterterrorism resolutions and related sanctions regimes can continue making progress to better protect humanitarian action. It begins by describing the council’s main streams of work on counterterrorism as well as their subsidiary organs. The second section discusses the impact of these counterterrorism measures on impartial humanitarian activities. The third section then reviews the incremental steps taken by the Security Council to incorporate language relevant to IHL and humanitarian affairs into these measures. The fourth section analyzes the four most recent counterterrorism-related resolutions adopted by the Security Council. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for entities both within and outside of the UN to better safeguard humanitarian action within counterterrorism resolutions and related sanctions regimes: For humanitarian organizations, relevant civil society groups and UN entities, and independent experts: Advocate to keep humanitarian action high on the Security Council agenda; Monitor the implementation of the humanitarian exception for Afghanistan; and Issue independent opinions on advisable forms of humanitarian carve-outs. For the UN Security Council and other UN member states: Reinforce implementation and monitoring of provisions in Security Council resolutions pertaining to IHL and humanitarian action; Provide adequate resources to monitor the impact of UN counterterrorism measures and related sanctions on humanitarian action; Amend language in UN counterterrorism resolutions and related sanctions regimes to facilitate humanitarian action; and Empower elected members of the Security Council to be agents of change.
Topic:
Sanctions, Counter-terrorism, UN Security Council, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Global Focus

10. Raising awareness about the increased threat of the criminal and terrorist use of cryptocurrencies

Author:
Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Criminal and terrorist organisations are increasingly using cryptocurrencies, thus leading to emerging threats in the cyberspace. Money-laundering, tax evasion, ransomware extortion, trading in illicit goods and services, purchasing of child sexual abuse material and terrorist financing are concerning criminal and terrorist activities involving the use of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Monero are the most used cryptocurrencies among both criminals and terrorists, however other cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, Dash and Ethereum are being growingly used in criminal and terrorist financial activities. The anonymity/pseudo-anonymity and security characterising cryptocurrencies can challenge law enforcement investigative efforts aimed at countering criminal and terrorist activities. There has not been a widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies by terrorist and criminals yet, however this is likely to change in the next future.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Cryptocurrencies, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus