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2. Push vs. Pull Factors of Capital Flows Revisited: A Cross-country Analysis
- Author:
- Tae Soo Kang and Kyunghun Kim
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Capital market integration contributes to economic growth and it can be more beneficial for emerging market economies (EMEs, hereafter) at their early stages of development where the capital is relatively insufficient. An open capital market also enables investor to share the country-specific risks by holding foreign assets. However, there are also some negative side effects of capital market integration. Financial shocks originating in the center coun-try can be quickly propagated through the integrated financial market. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC, hereafter) is a good example of the contagion of the financial crisis. Volatile cross-border capital inflows and outflows nega-tively affect financial stability, which eventually lowers economic growth by causing financial crises. Despite of these negative side effects, capital market integration has been an inevitable long-term trend for many EMEs over the past few decades (Aizenman et al. 2010). There have been continuous capital flows to EMEs, which started even before GFC and this trend has been more pronounced during the U.S. zero-interest rate period (Ahmed and Zlate 2014). Though some monetary authorities in EMEs tried to moderate the procyclicality of credit flows by implementing policy instruments such as capital controls or macro-prudential policy measures after GFC (Kim and Mehrotra 2018), the common factors in the global financial market still play a crucial role in de-termining capital inflows to EMEs. The relationship between the global financial condition and its impact on capital inflows to EMEs, has been a long-debated issue. This issue concerns whether push or pull factors are the major determinant of capital flows. The push factor represents the common factor that exists in the global financial market or center countries, which influences capital inflows to peripheral countries. These factors are interest rates and GDP growth rates of advanced economies (AEs, hereafter), global risk factors such as VIX (S&P 500 Volatili-ty Index), and the commodity price index. The pull factor denotes domestic factors that attract funds from the global financial market to domestic finan-cial markets. These factors are domestic interest rates, domestic GDP growth rates, and other country-specific characteristics such as exchange rate regime, degree of the capital account openness, institutional quality, and stages of economic development. In previous literature, many scholars have found strong evidence for push factors being the major determinant of capital movement. The interest rates of mature economies and VIX are significant determinants of capital inflows to EMEs. However, there is only some evidence that higher domestic interest rates and higher domestic GDP growth rates pull capital from the center countries to individual EMEs (Koepke 2015). Related to this long-debated issue in academia, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome H. Powell recently stated, "... I will argue that, while global factors play an important role in influencing domestic financial conditions, the role of U.S. monetary policy is often exaggerated." With this statement, he also pointed out that the slowdown in capital inflows to EMEs which has been happening ever since 2011 has been mainly due to the narrowing of GDP gaps between AEs and EMEs, i.e., the recent decrease in capital in-flows to EMEs can be attributed to the decline in EMEs' GDP growth rates given the fact that the U.S. GDP growth rate has picked up. In this paper, we revisit this issue of push and pull factors of capital inflows. To this end, we consider the heterogeneity that exists in EMEs by dividing them into four subgroups. We investigate which is the main driver of capital inflows between push and pull factors across country groups. Categorizing subgroups is important for two reasons. First, EMEs are so heterogeneous that we make subgroups which share similar economic fundamentals by re-gions. Second, making subgroups across EMEs is an effective way to indi-rectly consider the regional contagion effect. With this cross-country analysis, we can figure out the differing effects of push and pull factors across country groups, and this can eventually lead to the development and implementation of appropriate policy instruments. Our empirical finding shows that the push and pull factors play a different role in determining capital inflows to AEs and EMEs. The major drivers of capital inflows to AEs are both push and pull factors, but push factors turn out to be the main determinant of capital inflows to EMEs. When EMEs are divided into four subgroups, we find sizable heterogeneity across subgroups. In Asian countries, both push and pull factors are significant, which is similar to AEs, but only U.S. interest rate plays a major role in Eastern Europe. Some pull factors are important in Latin American countries and other EMEs, but these are not robust to alternative empirical models and measures.
- Topic:
- Capital Flows, Economic Policy, Push Factor, and Pull Factor
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Capital Controls and International Trade: An Industry Financial Vulnerability Perspective
- Author:
- Kevin Lai, Tao Wang, and David Xu
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Capital controls—or measures that governments take to restrict the amount of money that flows into and out of countries—pose significant challenges for firms that rely heavily on foreign financing to conduct business. This paper empirically evaluates effects of capital controls on trade across industries with varying levels of dependence on foreign capital. Mobilizing data on 99 countries from 1995 to 2014 across 27 industries, the authors find that industries more reliant on foreign capital tend to export much less in response to tightening of capital controls by exporting countries. Exports decline uniformly across all industries in response to tightening of capital controls by importing countries. The negative effects of capital controls on trade are less pronounced in countries with more advanced financial systems.
- Topic:
- Government, International Trade and Finance, Capital Flows, and Capital Controls
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
4. The Cost of Holding Foreign Exchange Reserves
- Author:
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Eduardo Gómez
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Recent studies that have emphasized the costs of accumulating reserves for self-insurance purposes have overlooked two potentially important side-effects. First, the impact of the resulting lower spreads on the service costs of the stock of sovereign debt, which could substantially reduce the marginal cost of holding reserves. Second, when reserve accumulation reflects countercyclical LAW central bank interventions, the actual cost of reserves should be measured as the sum of valuation effects due to exchange rate changes and the local-to-foreign currency exchange rate differential (the inverse of a carry trade profit and loss total return flow), which yields a cost that is typically smaller than the one arising from traditional estimates based on the sovereign credit risk spreads. We document those effects empirically to illustrate that the cost of holding reserves may have been considerably smaller than usually assumed in both the academic literature and the policy debate.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Exchange Rate Policy, International Reserves, and Capital Flows
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
5. How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets
- Author:
- Nathan Converse, Eduardo Levy Yeyati, and Tomas Williams
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since the early 2000s exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown to become an important in- vestment vehicle worldwide. In this paper, we study how their growth affects the sensitivity of international capital flows to the global financial cycle. We combine comprehensive fund- level data on investor flows with a novel identification strategy that controls for unobservable time-varying economic conditions at the investment destination. For dedicated emerging mar- ket funds, we find that the sensitivity of investor flows to global financial conditions for equity (bond) ETFs is 2.5 (2.25) times higher than for equity (bond) mutual funds. In turn, we show that in countries where ETFs hold a larger share of financial assets, total cross-border equity flows and prices are significantly more sensitive to global financial conditions. We conclude that the growing role of ETFs as a channel for international capital flows amplifies the global financial cycle in emerging markets.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Capital Flows, and Mutual Funds
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and Global Markets
6. Global Growth Projections for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2019
- Author:
- Abdul Erumban and Klaas de Vries
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- This paper presents the methodology for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2019, which includes growth projections for 11 major regions and individual estimates for 33 mature and 36 emerging market economies for 2019-2023 and 2024-2028. The projections are based on a supply-side growth accounting model that estimates the contributions of the use of factor inputs—labor and capital—and total factor productivity growth to the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP). While labor input growth rates are estimated using data on demographic changes and participation rates—including an estimation to adjust for the change in the composition (or quality) of the workforce—capital input and total factor productivity growth are econometrically estimated using a wide range of related variables during past periods. The obtained trend growth rates for the period 2019-2023 are adjusted for possible deviations between actual and potential output in the short run.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Economy, and Capital Flows
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
7. Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: An alternative Theoretical Framework
- Author:
- Bruno Bonizzi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- This paper represents a theoretical contribution to the analysis of international capital flows. It outlines an alternative theoretical framework based on Post-Keynesian monetary theory, and in particular on Hyman Minsky’s Wall Street paradigm and concept of Money-manager capitalism and Jan Toporowski’s theory of capital market inflation. The key aspects of such an approach are, firstly, that in a monetary analysis capital flows need to be understood as “flows of funds”, as opposed to the traditional understanding of capital flows based on “real” decision, such as saving and investment. A consequence of this is the need of focusing on gross rather than net capital flows. Secondly, when considering emerging markets, the asymmetric nature of the international monetary system must be stressed. Thirdly, it is important to understand the specific forms that capital flows take: in today’s world, pension funds and other institutional investors — alongside banks — are key players in the financial markets, and their role in shaping capital flows to emerging markets must be explicitly recognised. This paper synthesises these elements by understanding capital flows as the result of institutional investors portfolio choice. Along the lines of Minsky and Toporowski, portfolio choice by institutional investors need to be assessed in relation to their balance sheet structure, beside risk/return trade-offs and general state of risk aversion
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Capital Flows, Investment, and Economic Theory
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8. A Note on Mundell-Fleming and Developing Countries
- Author:
- John Weeks
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- This paper inspects the statement found in macroeconomic text books that under a flexible exchange rate regime with perfectly elastic capital flows monetary policy is effective and fiscal policy is not. The logical validity of the statement requires that the domestic price level effect of devaluation be ignored. The price level effect is noted in some textbooks, but not analysed. When it is subjected to a rigorous analysis, the interaction between exchange rate changes and domestic price level changes render the standard statement false. The logically correct statement would be, under a flexible exchange rate regime with perfectly elastic capital flows the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the values of the import share and the sum of the trade elasticities. Monetary policy will be more effective than fiscal policy if and only if the sum of the trade elasticities exceeds the import share. Inspection of data from developing countries indicates a low effectiveness of monetary policy under flexible exchange rates. In the more general case of less than perfectly elastic capital flows the conditions for monetary policy to be more effective than fiscal policy are even more restrictive. Use of empirical evidence on trade shares and interest rate differentials suggest that for most countries fiscal policy would prove more effective than monetary policy under a flexible exchange rate regime. In any case, the general theoretical assertion that monetary policy is more effective is incorrect.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Developing World, Capital Flows, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus