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1. IS CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVING GLOBAL CONFLICT?

Author:
Nina von Uexkull and Halvard Buhaug
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
While former US President Donald Trump frequently denied man-made climate change, the Biden administration has pledged to make climate change a priority, including for national security. In line with years of thinking within the defense sector, the Biden-Harris team refers to climate change as a “threat multiplier,” pointing to risks of regional instability and resource competition driven by worsening environmental conditions. This perspective also aligns with the initiatives of other countries that have pushed climate security in the UN Security Council and other international bodies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Climate Change, International Security, Conflict, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. The Un-Evident Victims of Armed Conflict: Humanitarian Workers

Author:
Tamia Brito
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
n the increasingly complex realm of armed conflict, the impact of armed encounters has expanded beyond the parties to the conflict and the civilian population. There is a deteriorating situation for humanitarian workers as they have become direct targets of organized violence, despite the protection that international law has provided for them. Both International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and International Criminal Law (ICL) have established special protection to personnel providing input and services to the civilian population affected by armed conflict. However, the difference between theory and practice can be rather large. The humanitarian mission is being limited in the field by novel risks brought by armed conflicts. This blog post discusses the achievements of international law in providing special protection to humanitarian aid personnel as part of global recognition of the humanitarian endeavor. It also addresses factual information regarding humanitarian workers, illustrating the risks they experience in the field. To conclude, this blog post exhibits responses that the international community is implementing to mitigate the discrepancy between law and practice. World Humanitarian Day (August 19th) may be an opportunity to remember the relevance of this particular issue and encourage further efforts towards its solution.
Topic:
Humanitarian Intervention, Violence, Humanitarian Crisis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Do Commodity Price Shocks Cause Armed Conflicts? A Meta-Analysis of Natural Experiments

Author:
Graeme Blair, Darin Christensen, and Aaron Rudkin
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Scholars of the resource curse argue that reliance on primary commodities destabilizes governments: price fluctuations generate windfalls or periods of austerity that provoke or intensify civil conflict. Over 350 quantitative studies test this claim, but prominent results point in different directions, making it difficult to discern which results reliably hold across contexts. We conduct a meta-analysis of 46 natural experiments that use difference-in-difference designs to estimate the causal effect of commodity price changes on armed civil conflict. We show that commodity price changes, on average, do not change the likelihood of conflict. However, there are cross-cutting effects by commodity type. In line with theory, we find price increases for labor-intensive agricultural commodities reduce conflict, while increases in the price of oil, a capital-intensive commodity, provoke conflict. We also find that price increases for lootable artisanal minerals provoke conflict. Our meta-analysis consolidates existing evidence, but also highlights opportunities for future research.
Topic:
Agriculture, Oil, Natural Resources, Commodities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. THE STABILITY-INSTABILITY PANDEMIC

Author:
Evan Perkoski
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Will the COVID-19 pandemic increase or decrease conflict around the globe? Across myriad blog posts and op-eds, a consensus appears to be emerging: in the short term, the global community may experience a pax epidemia, as Barry Posen refers to it, where “the odds of a war between major powers will go down, not up.” But the opposite may be true for intrastate conflict—e.g. civil wars and insurgencies—where conditions seem ripe for more turbulent subnational politics.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, War, Conflict, COVID-19, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Financing Armed Groups During Ceasefires

Author:
Veronique Dudouet and Janel B. Galvanek
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
While the financing sources of non-state armed groups (NSAGs) both during active hostilities and after peace agreements has received much attention in the academic and peace-practitioner fields, information about the funding of NSAGs during the time between active fighting and the conclusion of a peace agreement is much less available. This study aims to fill that gap by investigating the sources of financial support for armed groups during ceasefires and peace negotiations. Through information gathered from the selected cases of ETA in the Basque Country, the LTTE in Sri Lanka, the KNU in Myanmar, GAM in Aceh, and several armed groups in Mali, the study examines the various internal and external options available for NSAG funding when a unilateral or bilateral ceasefire is in place and analyses whether ceasefires represent a fundraising constraint or an opportunity for non-state belligerents. The study also makes projections for the longer-term prospects of NSAGs’ receiving financial support to sustain their post-war security, political and socio-economic transformations. Lastly, some general lessons are drawn for third parties involved in supporting peace processes with NSAGs.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Peace, Ceasefire, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Inclusive constitution making in fragile and conflict-affected states

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Support for constitution making is an important element of international engagement in countries emerging from conflict or political transition. This support often focuses on promoting inclusive constitution making, recognising that this can help establish a more inclusive state and social contract, and address exclusion-related drivers of fragility. However, such support is frequently based on an incorrect assumption that an inclusive constitution-making process leads automatically to inclusive content and outcomes. This report examines key elements required to promote inclusion in the constitution-making process, the constitutional text, and in terms of outcomes from the new constitution. It argues that constitution making in fragile and conflict-affected states must be understood as part of wider political settlement bargaining that shapes the opportunity structures for promoting inclusion at every stage. Finally, the report examines both the important role international actors can play in supporting inclusive constitution making and the challenges they face in doing so.
Topic:
Constitution, Fragile States, State Violence, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Priorities for the UN's Children and Armed Conflict Agenda

Author:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University (LISD) and the non-governmental organization Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict convened a workshop, “Priorities for the UN’s Children and Armed Conflict Agenda,” on December 12-13, 2016, at Princeton University. The workshop brought together representatives of United Nations Member States, including members of the Security Council, the UN Office of the Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict (OSRSG-CAAC), Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO), UNICEF, academics, and NGOs to discuss priorities for the UN’s Children and Armed Conflict (CAAC) agenda in 2017 and 2018. This report is a summary of the discussions at this workshop and resulting recommendations.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Children, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Promotion and Protection of the Rights of Children

Author:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
This is the final report, circulated as a UN General Assembly and Security Council Document, of the workshop, “Priorities for the UN’s Children and Armed Conflict Agenda,” convened at Princeton University by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determinantion's Project on Gender in the Global Community and the non-governmental organization Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict, on December 12-13, 2016. The workshop brought together representatives of United Nations Member States, including members of the Security Council, the UN Office of the Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict (OSRSG-CAAC), Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO), UNICEF, academics, and NGOs to discuss priorities for the UN’s Children and Armed Conflict (CAAC) agenda in 2017 and 2018. The workshop began with informal discussions among participants in advance of the working sessions on December 12, and closed with a public session on December 13, to introduce a wider audience to the plight of children caught in the crossfire of armed conflict, particularly in the context of attacks on schools and hospitals. The working sessions of the workshop consisted of three closed sessions on December 13.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Children, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. From Rome to Rwanda: The Centuries-Long Effort to Define Civil War

Author:
Michelle Nicholasen
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
If you live in a developed country, you are among those enjoying the “Long Peace,” a period marked by the absence of large scale interstate war since the end of 1945. It is the longest period of such calm in modern history. During this same time period, however, the world’s pockets of conflict have moved away from the frontiers and turned, instead, inward. “The Long Peace stands under a dark shadow—the shadow of civil war,” writes Harvard historian and Weatherhead Center Faculty Associate David Armitage, whose new book, Civil Wars: A History in Ideas tracks the evolution of human understanding of civil war over two millennia.
Topic:
Civil Society, Civil War, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. The International Responsibility of Non-State Armed Groups: In Search of the Applicable Rules

Author:
Ezequiel Heffes and Brian E. Frenkel
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
In the last few decades, the role of non-state armed groups has become an essential topic of analysis and discussion to better understand international humanitarian law dynamics. While their increasing importance is uncontroversial, their place and regulation in specific areas of international law still remains unclear or insufficiently explored. Chief among these is the possible non-state armed groups’ international responsibility. Although it is undisputed that some of these entities breach their international law obligations, others seemingly engage with certain rules on the topic. This article addresses some legal consequences of such scenarios. Taking into account the principle of equality of belligerents in non- international armed conflicts, two issues are dealt with: i) the existence of “non- state” organs that could trigger the attribution of violations of international rules to non-state armed groups; ii) possible reparations owed by these non-state entities for their breaches during armed conflicts.
Topic:
International Law, Non State Actors, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus