Search

Begin New Search Political Geography Global Focus Publication Year within 1 Year

81. Minilateral Mechanisms for Peacemaking in a Multipolar World: Friends, Contact Groups, Troikas, Quads, and Quints

Author:
Teresa Whitfield
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Informal “minilateral” coalitions of the willing and interested have long been a feature of peacemaking. Groups of states identified as “friends” of the mediator or a particular peace process and contact groups bringing together interested powers date back to concert diplomacy traditions and proliferated at the end of the Cold War as conflict resolution activity surged. The incidence of such informal mechanisms grew exponentially between 1990 and 2009. This report assesses how these mechanisms have evolved in the years since 2010 and investigates their place in parallel to the UN’s efforts to mediate internationalized internal conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen; peace processes in the Philippines, Colombia, and Mozambique taking place in relatively benign regional settings, as well as the anomalous case of Venezuela, where efforts toward a peaceful resolution of the political crisis were mired in international divisions; the geopolitically contested contexts of Myanmar and Afghanistan; and the democratic transition and descent into war in Sudan. The report concludes that groups have the potential to build internal coherence among their members, as well as to elevate public messaging and facilitate information sharing, but they can also become a forum for competition between their members. In this context, the report offers lessons to help those considering whether a group is appropriate. The “right” group structure will depend on the context, and the adage of “form follows function” is critically important. It is key to set realistic expectations and, in some cases, accept that the “right” structure will be no group at all. Successful groups and partnerships all point to the importance of skilled individual mediators committed to working with each other, whether within a group or without an established mechanism. Finally, some contexts may defy attempts to design or deliver a coherent international peace architecture. In these cases, more modest goals related to specific or localized gains and incremental support to conflict parties and other affected communities should be pursued.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

82. Infrastructure Grids and Networks. The Challenges Ahead, amid Security and Efficiency

Author:
Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In recent years, accelerating geopolitical tensions, economic disruptions, and climate-related disasters have elevated resilience and economic security to the forefront of both global and European policy agendas. In response, strategies such as de-risking have driven substantial investments in redundancy, new trade corridors, and expanded infrastructure – including railway lines, highways, ports, electricity grids, pipelines, and undersea digital cables. This infrastructure forms the backbone of the global economy. It is not only crucial for maintaining competitiveness and supporting growth but also plays a central role in enabling the energy and digital transitions. As such, protecting these systems from hostile actions or third-party interference has become an urgent priority. At the same time, the long-standing trade-off between efficiency and security has grown more pronounced amid increasingly strained international relations. Both governments and private sector actors are now more willing to absorb higher costs in order to enhance the resilience of supply chains and connectivity networks. Against this backdrop, a new paradigm is emerging - one that raises two critical questions: Where will the balance ultimately settle between economic efficiency and security/resilience? And what investment priorities will shape the future of transport, energy, and digital connectivity infrastructure?
Topic:
Security, Infrastructure, Economy, Energy, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

83. Lonely in the Crowd: Plugged or Remote?

Author:
Tobia Zevi
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic forced cities to shut down and citizens to stay home, disrupting economic activity and social life. The crisis pushed companies to adopt remote work, transforming it from a niche practice to a widespread norm, altering the balance between work and personal life. This shift created inequalities across sectors and influenced the ability of "global cities" to attract talent in a globalized labor market. Now, as the pandemic has receded, many companies are reversing course. This Report explores how remote work has impacted cities and citizens, from mobility to urban planning. How can remote work reshape global cities? What strategies are available to local authorities? Is remote work still the future?
Topic:
Cities, COVID-19, Labor Market, Digitalization, and Remote Work
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

84. Gender diversity and economic growth

Author:
Jonathan Ostry
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Most macroeconomic and growth accounting models assume that male and female workers are perfectly substitutable in the aggregate production function. Whether this assumption is valid is an empirical question that this paper aims to answer by estimating the elasticity of substitution between female and male labour. We apply linear and non-linear techniques to firm-level data, cross-country sectoral data and cross-country aggregate data. We find that women and men are far from being perfect substitutes in production, a result that is consistent with much microeconomic evidence, but has not permeated to macroeconomics. The failure to account for imperfect gender substitutability has far-reaching implications. In particular, standard growth accounting exercises are likely to attribute to technological progress gains that are more properly attributable to the impact of greater gender inclusiveness in the labour force over time. Put differently, the gains from gender inclusiveness are likely to be much larger than standard economic models estimate.
Topic:
Governance, Women, Employment, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

85. Sovereigns on thinning ice: debt sustainability, climate impacts and adaptation

Author:
Matteo Calcaterra, Andrea Consiglio, Vincenzo Martorana, Massimo Tavoni, and Stavros Zenios
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
A fundamental problem for sovereigns enacting climate policies is whether they can manage increasing debts as their economies suffer from adverse climate impacts. We develop stochastic debt sustainability analysis integrating a coupled climate-economy model with debt financing scenario optimisation, and stress test sovereign debt for representative countries globally under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change marker narrative scenarios of climate change. The stress test combines socioeconomic and climate pathways with calibrated aleatory scenario trees of economic, fiscal and financial variables to generate forward-looking debt projections over the century. These projections incorporate climate-induced damages to economic growth, spanning the broad spectrum of impact functions from the literature. Our findings reveal significant risks to sovereign debt sustainability, particularly under high climate damages, that are large from mid-century. Expected costs increase by up to 3 percent of GDP under high climate impact in a world of regional rivalries, or 0.25 percent under low impact in a middle-of-the-road narrative, with considerable variation between countries. The long-run debts of highly impacted countries are unsustainable. We assess whether adaptation investments or fiscal consolidation can mitigate potential climate-debt crises. Public financing of reactive adaptation is a justified expenditure that breaks even but does not fully restore the debt sustainability of highly impacted high-debt countries. Maintaining public spending while ensuring debt sustainability appears infeasible under climate impacts.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Public Debt, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

86. The Misleading Panic over Misinformation

Author:
David Inserra
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Misinformation is widely viewed as one of the most serious challenges facing modern societies. Together with the related terms “disinformation” and “malinformation,” nearly every present-day issue involves claims of misinformation. As a result, a host of actors have dedicated significant amounts of resources to the problem of incorrect or misleading information, especially online.
Topic:
Regulation, Freedom of Expression, and Misinformation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

87. Global Futures Bulletin: The BRICS and the Decarbonization and Biodiversity Protection Challenges

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
The world faces an unprecedented convergence of environmental crises – climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss – that collectively threaten the planet’s ecological balance and humanity’s future. Reversing the Triple Planetary Crisis necessitates urgent and coordinated action across all sectors and countries, accelerating the transition to low-carbon economies while protecting biodiversity are key challenges for the coming years. Countries that have joined the BRICS in its inception (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are increasingly an important geopolitical force in current global politics, and their individual and collective action is key to the success of concerted global action. The group’s recent expansion – BRICS+ includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Indonesia joining in 2025 and Saudi Arabia finally formalizing its membership – offers an opportunity to boost the role of their New Development Bank (NDB) in bridging climate, biodiversity, and development finance, and aim for greater policy coherence for concerted global action across these agendas. Combined, BRICS countries are not only biodiversity and energy-rich but also contribute to a large share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This Strategic Paper examines the role of the expanded BRICS+ and explores whether and how this “mini-multilateral” grouping, with its considerable human and technological capacity, can address two major global challenges: accelerating decarbonization and protecting biological diversity. The discussion is framed around the opportunities and challenges faced by the member countries to increase their ambitions and become leading voices in these agendas – not only for BRICS countries (some of which are among the most biodiverse in the world) but also for the wider international community. Without a strong commitment by BRICS countries (individually and as a group) the world will fail to accelerate action on decarbonization and biodiversity protection.
Topic:
Climate Change, Pollution, BRICS, Decarbonization, Biodiversity, and Minilateralism
Political Geography:
Russia, China, South Africa, Brazil, and Global Focus

88. The Gendered Impact of Social Norms on Financial Access and Capital Misallocation

Author:
Arti Grover and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper provides evidence on the nature of financial constraints faced by women entrepreneurs, especially in contexts of stringent social norms. Using micro-data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for 61 countries, the analysis shows that formal firms managed by women do not face credit constraints on the extensive margin. They are equally likely to apply for credit as their male counterparts and experience lower rates of credit rejection, with a higher likelihood of opening credit lines. However, on the intensive margin, firms managed by women receive lower credit amounts, indicating signs of credit constraints. This disparity in access to credit cannot be explained by gender differences in risk profiles, profitability, or productivity. However, firms managed by women have lower sales per worker, suggesting challenges in accessing product and labor markets. The paper finds suggestive evidence of capital misallocation based on gender, particularly in countries with more restrictive gender and cultural norms. Firms managed by women demonstrate a 15 percent higher average return on capital compared to firms managed by men, indicating the potential benefits of increased access to credit for women-led businesses. These findings emphasize the importance of addressing gender-specific constraints to accessing finance and promoting gender-inclusive policies to enhance firm growth and reduce capital misallocation.
Topic:
Culture, Fiscal Policy, Credit, Capital, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:
Global Focus

89. Childhood Welfare Exposure and Economic Outcomes for Adult Daughters and Sons

Author:
Robert Paul Hartley, Carlos Lamarche, and James P. Ziliak
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We investigate how length of time on welfare during childhood affects economic outcomes in early adulthood. Using intergenerationally linked mother-child pairs from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we adopt a nonlinear difference-in-differences framework using the 1990s welfare reform to estimate average and quantile treatment effects on intensity of welfare use and earnings in adulthood. The causal estimates indicate that additional childhood welfare exposure leads to more adulthood years on the broader safety net for both daughters and sons, yet this positive relationship only applies below moderate levels of adult welfare participation and reverses at greater levels of dependence. Increasing childhood welfare exposure implies lower earnings in adulthood for daughters, however we find no evidence that it depresses adult sons’ earnings. Both daughters and sons exhibit some wage penalty from childhood welfare exposure, yet only daughters are penalized through hours worked in the labor market.
Topic:
Economics, Income Inequality, Welfare, Labor Market, Gender, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:
Global Focus

90. Hard Times, Hard Attitudes? The Effect of Economic Downturns on Gender Norms

Author:
Inés Berniell, Leonardo Gasparini, Mariana Marchionni, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of economic fluctuations on social norms, specifically exploring the link between changes in unemployment and shifts in attitudes toward gender roles in the labor market. The results are not immediately obvious, as the literature suggests several potential mechanisms with conflicting outcomes. Using microdata from the World Values Survey for a panel of 103 countries that cover close to 90% of the world population, we estimate individual-level probability models of agreement with traditional gender roles over the period 1995 to 2021, including country and year fixed effects. We find that an increase in unemployment is associated to more conservative views about gender roles in the labor market. This result is remarkably robust across different groups and specifications. We also find that some contextual factors matter. In particular, the link between higher unemployment and more conservative views on gender roles is stronger in countries with, on average, higher gender inequality and lower female labor force participation. Overall, this study contributes to a growing body of research on the complex relationship between economic conditions, gender norms, and social change.
Topic:
Economics, Unemployment, Attitudes, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:
Global Focus