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61. A Pacifism for Our Times

Author:
Antonio Patriota
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Growing trends of unilateralism are encouraging violence and threatening a systemic breakdown of international law and order. Change must come, and soon
Topic:
International Law, Violence, International Order, and Unilateralism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

62. From Ideas to Policy: Q&A with Ibrahim Awad

Author:
Omar Auf
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Is it possible to imagine, let alone move toward a different global political-economic order? Ibrahim Awad believes conferences and the exchange of ideas have a role to play in moving such a reality forward
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Politics, Neoliberalism, Interview, and International Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

63. The Role of Long Histories of “Lived Experience” in the COVID-Era Inflationary Surge

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon and Steven Kamin
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
A rough consensus has evolved around the causes of the COVID-era inflationary spike: the disruption in supply chains; the shift in demand from services to goods; the surge in commodity prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; and the pandemic fiscal stimulus programs. In this paper, we highlight an additional factor influencing the incidence of pandemic inflation across countries—their long histories of “lived experience” with inflation. We show that more than half of the variation in inflation across countries during the 2020–23 period can be explained by their earlier levels of inflation. Even controlling for inflation in the 2016–19 period, countries with higher inflation in the 2000–2015 period had higher COVID-era inflation, and the effect of long-lagged inflation is both economically and statistically significant. These long histories of lived experience dominated other policy measures to control inflation, including inflation targets and central bank independence. The influence of long-lagged inflation history appears to be greatest during periods of heightened volatility; it was less important in explaining the cross-country pattern of inflation during the more tranquil period immediately preceding the pandemic.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

64. How Export Restrictions Threaten Economic Security

Author:
Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The fear that a foreign government will impose an export restriction that imperils another country’s economic and national security has driven part of the recent turn to industrial policy and the increased use of tariffs. Countries now worry about disruption not only to their access to energy but also to critical minerals, semiconductors, medical supplies, and other essential goods. Modern use of industrial and trade policy is thus often an attempt to move supply chains in the short term and to sustain them in those new places over the long term, in order to reduce national vulnerability to disruptions caused by export restrictions. However, achieving even modest forms of international cooperation on trade and industrial policy between countries seeking to improve their collective economic security will also require that these same countries take on new commitments to discipline their own use of export restrictions toward each other.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Tariffs, Exports, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

65. Inequality and agricultural structural change: Evidence from macro and microdata, 1950–present

Author:
Matthew Fisher-Post
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since 1950, agricultural productivity has been increasing even as labourers leave agriculture. However, while average productivity of the sector has been converging, within-sector inequality has been increasing. Agricultural income inequality is still less than overall income inequality, but it measures significantly higher when we use higher-quality and more comprehensive survey data. This means not only to observe the entirety of household farm income, but also to measure the magnitude of capital income and corporate profits in the sector. Given the likely increase in agricultural inequality during the process of structural change, I show also the extent to which social protection programmes are both insufficient and poorly targeted for rural populations.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Food Security, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

66. Environmental Kuznets curve and green regulation

Author:
Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Loredana Pisano
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper, we first test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, using a large sample of approximately 190 advanced and developing countries, over a period of 34 years (1989– 2022). We find that (CO2) emissions respond positively to increasing income per capita, up to a turning point of approximately US$25,000. In a departure from the previous literature, we allow the relationship between economic development and emissions to depend on the stringency of environmental regulation. Our results indicate that environmental policies—and particularly market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emissions trading systems—make the EKC lower and flatter. These results are robust to several sensitivity checks, and to the use of regional (rather than global) data. Overall, our results have important policy implications, as they identify economic development as a pathway to environmental improvements. Moreover, we show that environmental policies are an essential means to achieving decoupling of emissions and economic output over the longer term.
Topic:
Climate Change, Carbon Tax, Decoupling, and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. Economic development and inequality of opportunity: Kuznets meets the Great Gatsby?

Author:
Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Domenico Moramarco, and Vito Peragine
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
According to the Kuznets hypothesis, inequality first tends to increase and then decrease as a country develops. Whether borne out empirically, this inverted-U Kuznets curve, as a stylized ‘fact’, has shaped the discourse on economic development and income inequality for decades. In this paper we investigate whether a similar relationship holds between national income per capita and inequality of opportunity: the inequality associated with inherited individual circumstances such as gender, ethnicity, and family background. As, empirically, inequality of opportunity is positively correlated with income inequality (a relationship known as the ‘Great Gatsby’ curve), the relationship between inequality of opportunity and ‘development’ is expected to display the same inverted-U shape. We suggest that the existence of a Kuznets inequality of opportunity curve can be the result of a ‘triangular’ relationship between development, income inequality, and inequality of opportunity. We propose a simple theoretical model that links the three concepts and describes two possible mechanisms. A numerical simulation based on the model illustrates the process. We then draw on the newly published Global Estimates of Opportunity and Mobility database to shed new light on this ‘triangular’ relationship, primarily in a cross-sectional context.
Topic:
Development, Inequality, and Opportunity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

68. Building a path toward global deployment of fusion: Nonproliferation and export considerations

Author:
Sachin Desai, Michael Hua, Amy Roma, Jessica Bufford, Jacqueline Siebens, and Andrew Proffitt
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Commercial fusion is on the horizon, with many experts arguing that fusion power plants could put electrons on the grid by the end of this decade. However, there are questions around the process for regulating fusion power plants. In this Atlantic Council issue brief, authors Sachin S. Desai, Michael Y. Hua, Amy C. Roma, Jessica A. Bufford, Jacqueline E. Siebens, and J. Andrew Proffitt explore pathways to address regulation, nonproliferation, and export considerations for fusion technologies. They argue that fusion power plants should be regulated in a pathway that is separate from the regulatory pathways established for fission reactors, especially since the materials and processes involved in fusion power plants are significantly different from fission reactors.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Nonproliferation, Exports, Renewable Energy, Nuclear Energy, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

69. Benchmarking Quantum Technology Performance: Governments, Industry, Academia and their Role in Shaping our Technological Future

Author:
Fredrik Erixon, Andrea Dugo, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
In this study on the transformative potential of quantum technology in reshaping economies, we present results and evidence drawing on a unique and innovative quantum dataset compiled by ECIPE. This data offers new insights into the current state of quantum advancements. This comprehensive database sheds light on the roles of various actors – governments, industry, and academia – showcasing their contributions to the development of quantum technologies. By grounding the analysis in real data, we provide a clearer understanding of the dynamics at play, enabling stakeholders to assess the sustainability of quantum technology progress and foster an ecosystem that supports both public and private sector involvement.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Private Sector, Industry, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

70. Models of Industrial Policy: Driving Innovation and Economic Growth

Author:
Andrea Dugo, Fredrik Erixon, and Oscar Guinea
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Europe’s approach to industrial policy has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent years, with state aid reaching 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2022, levels unseen since the early 1990s. While advocates of substantial state aid argue that this intervention is necessary to maintain competitiveness in a world where the US and China are implementing large-scale industrial strategies, the effectiveness of this approach remains contested. This paper critically examines the evolution of EU industrial policy, contrasting it with alternative models adopted globally and within Europe itself. While EU economic strategies since the 1980s had focused mainly on horizontal policies such as market liberalisation, competition enforcement and support to Research and Development (R&D), recent developments have shifted towards a more interventionist stance. This shift has largely been driven by crises – the financial crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and the energy transition – which have prompted calls for greater state involvement in shaping industrial outcomes. However, this paper shows that, while industrial policy can support good economic development, it is not a determinant of economic success. All successful economies have pursued industrial policy, but so have all unsuccessful ones. This suggests that industrial policy, in and of itself, is not a determinant of economic growth and competitiveness. The effectiveness of industrial policy depends on its design, its ability to avoid market distortions, and its capacity to stimulate genuine private-sector investment rather than crowding it out. The revival of industrial policy in the EU – best exemplified by a series of high-level reports, including the Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi Reports of 2024 – signals a shift towards an industrial strategy that embraces state aid as a central tool for economic restructuring. Unlike earlier EU economic strategies that prioritised the deepening of the Single Market as the best form of industrial policy, recent proposals advocate for a relaxation of state aid rules to enable greater public subsidies for European industries. The rationale is that the EU must respond to global competitors who are no longer playing by the rules of free trade. As documented in this study, across a diverse range of EU countries, sectors, and policy targets, the prevailing industrial policy model in Europe consistently prioritises a selection of incumbent firms over the private sector as a whole, direct grants over other policy instruments, middle-technology sectors over high-tech ones. This paper argues that such an approach will not generate the desired outcome and assesses its shortcomings to encourage careful review by policymakers before Europe embarks on more of the same. In search of other policy solutions, this paper contrasts the broad European model of industrial policy with other approaches, particularly those of the US, South Korea, Switzerland, and Ireland, which offer, in different fields, alternative frameworks for fostering industrial competitiveness. These models are attractive because they respond to specific and growing problems in the EU economy that public policy can help to alleviate: low levels of investment, declining inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), lagging R&D-based innovation, and problems supplying industry with adequate human capital.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, European Union, Economic Growth, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus