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461. Small States and the Multilateral System: Transforming Global Governance for a Better Future

Author:
Adam Lupel, Kaewkamol Karen Pitakdumrongkit, and Joel Ng
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Small states play a critical role in upholding and advancing multilateralism and international law in the face of growing geopolitical tensions and global challenges. Representing the majority of UN member states, these countries broadly agree on the need to uphold international law, support multilateral cooperation and the institutions of global order, and adhere to the “purposes and principles” of the UN Charter. This paper explores why small states remain committed to the multilateral system, emphasizing that their limited military and economic power makes rules-based international cooperation essential for their security and development. Small states have played an active role in championing international law, serving as agents of international peace and security, protecting and managing shared resources, and bringing issues related to emerging technologies to the forefront of international diplomacy. The paper also examines some of the tools small states have used to craft multilateral responses to frontier issues, including by leveraging their expertise in specific areas, chairing multilateral negotiations, building coalitions to advance their interests, and serving as impartial mediators. Looking to the future, the paper concludes that small states can and should be catalysts for change, offering a path forward amid geopolitical tensions between larger states. Following the adoption of the Pact for the Future in September 2024, small states can consider several priorities to help implement the pact and build a stronger multilateral system for the benefit of all: Reinforce the fundamental principles of international cooperation: Small states should lead and mobilize all member states in recommitting to their obligations under the UN Charter. Expand and strengthen diverse cross-regional coalitions for global governance: Small states should continue to leverage UN processes to widen the group of countries invested in overcoming polarization. Promote information sharing and capacity building: Small states that have the means and subject-matter expertise should redouble their efforts to pool resources and knowledge to build up other states’ capacities. Revamp working methods: Small states should work together to put forward their views on how to revamp and update the working methods of different UN organs. Update the peace and security toolbox: Small states need to be involved in updating the UN’s peace and security toolbox in areas such as mediation, preventive diplomacy, and peacebuilding. Prioritize inclusiveness on new and emerging technologies: If harnessed properly, digitalization and new and emerging technologies could help small states grow their influence. Embed future thinking: Small states should inject their views into the gamut of “forward-looking” and “long-term” conversations taking place at the UN.
Topic:
International Law, United Nations, Governance, Geopolitics, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

462. Multilateralism Index 2024

Author:
International Peace Institute
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
There are growing calls to transform the multilateral system, which is widely seen as being in crisis. Yet solving the crisis of multilateralism requires understanding what that crisis entails. What parts of the multilateral system are in crisis, and what parts are still functioning? Where is commitment to multilateralism flagging, and where does it remain strong? Where is multilateral action failing to translate into concrete results, and where is it delivering? Who is being left out of multilateral engagement, and who is being included? And what are the trends over time? To help answer these questions, the International Peace Institute (IPI) and the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) developed the Multilateralism Index. This 2024 edition of the Index assesses changes in international cooperation between 2013 and 2023 across five domains: Peace and Security, Human Rights, Climate Action, Public Health, and Trade. Each domain is evaluated across three dimensions: Participation, Performance, and Inclusivity. Looking at each of these dimensions provides several broad takeaways: Participation: The Index does not find a major drop-off in participation by states in the multilateral system. In fact, participation increased across all domains except trade. This signals that member states remain engaged in the system, even if the nature of this engagement has shifted from cooperation toward contestation. At the same time, due to limitations in the indicators available, these improvements in participation should not necessarily be interpreted as a broad-based increase in commitment to multilateral action. Performance: Performance is the one dimension where the multilateral system saw a clear decline across most of the domains. The biggest decline was in peace and security. Human rights and climate action also saw significant declines. These declines may indicate that some global crises are outstripping the multilateral system’s ability to respond. At the same time, these shortcomings are not solely failures of multilateralism, as performance in many areas also depends domestic action by individual states. Moreover, despite these shortcomings, the gears of the multilateral system are continuing to turn. Inclusivity: Broad improvements in the Index’s inclusivity dimension point to two trends: the steady growth in the number of NGOs engaging with various parts of the UN system and the increase in women’s representation across many UN bodies. Limitations in the indicators available make it more difficult to assess progress in other areas, including geographic inclusivity and more substantive inclusivity of women beyond their formal representation at the UN.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

463. Cybersecurity and UN Peace Operations: Evolving Risks and Opportunities

Author:
Dirk Druet
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
This paper discusses the growing potential cybersecurity vulnerabilities of UN peace operations. Fast-moving changes in the cyber capabilities of state and non-state actors, the changing nature of asymmetric warfare, and the positioning of the UN in relation to global and regional geopolitics are increasingly placing peace operations in the crosshairs of complex cybersecurity threats. In parallel to these external trends, internal trends in missions’ intelligence, surveillance, and data management technologies also make them more vulnerable to cyber threats. At the same time, there are opportunities for missions to leverage cybersecurity infrastructure to support the implementation of their mandates, including in the areas of mediation and political settlements and the protection of civil society actors. The paper provides an overview of the cyber threats facing peace operations and opportunities to leverage cybersecurity tools for mandate implementation. It also documents the operational and policy challenges that have arisen and the Secretariat’s efforts to address them. It concludes with several recommendations for the UN as peace operations seek to operate in an increasingly fraught political and cybersecurity environment: The Secretariat should develop cross-cutting operational concepts and guidance for cyber threat assessments. The Secretariat should articulate its understanding of its duty of care for staff privacy and develop operational guidance and expertise for mitigating threats to privacy. When facilitating political processes, peace operations should consider whether cybersecurity measures will be equally effective in deterring hacking attempts by all parties to ensure they do not exacerbate “information asymmetries.” The UN should explore the boundaries around missions evading or obstructing surveillance or intrusion activities by host states to secure their operations. The Secretariat should mitigate the volume of data exposed to external systems, including by deploying UN-owned and UN-operated intelligence and surveillance devices when possible.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Cybersecurity, Risk, and Asymmetric Warfare
Political Geography:
Global Focus

464. The Protection and Promotion of Civic Space in UN Peacekeeping Operations

Author:
Lauren McGowan
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
UN peacekeeping operations have a vital role to play in protecting and promoting civic space. Shrinking civic space undermines human rights, generates instability, and impacts the ability of missions to execute their mandates. Supporting civic space is also connected to core areas of missions’ work, including support to political processes, the protection of civilians, and the promotion of human rights. This paper identifies how missions are contributing to the protection and promotion of civic space and the obstacles they face in doing so. It identifies how civic space has been reflected in mission mandates and analyzes whether the inclusion of explicit language on civic space has an impact on the work undertaken by missions. It also explores how missions have sought to protect and promote civic space and examines the challenges they face when engaging in these activities. Despite these challenges, the paper concludes that peacekeeping missions have unique advantages in protecting and promoting civic space, such as their ability to protect civilians and connect civic space initiatives to broader political mandates. Yet their efforts are not always part of a common strategy for promoting and protecting civic space. The paper offers four considerations to help guide future exploration of the topic: Policymakers should consider the utility of adding explicit language on civic space to mission mandates and weigh the risks and benefits. Missions should consider how to connect the dots between their different efforts related to civic space. Missions that have implemented more systematic approaches to monitoring civic space should gather lessons on whether and how this monitoring has impacted their ability to respond to civic space restrictions. The UN should improve reporting on the collective impact of activities related to civic space to illustrate the role missions play and their comparative advantages.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Protection, and Civic Space
Political Geography:
Global Focus

465. Safeguarding Humanitarian Action from the Unintended Effects of Sanctions: Resolution 2664 and the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida Regime

Author:
Alice Debarre
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Resolution 2664, adopted by the UN Security Council on December 9, 2022, was a landmark resolution that created a clear and well-defined humanitarian carve-out for UN sanctions. The application of the carve-out to the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida regime was particularly important given the far-reaching impact of that regime. It applies across multiple countries, including some of the world’s most challenging humanitarian contexts. This paper examines how Resolution 2664 has established a humanitarian carve-out within UN sanctions regimes and its impact on facilitating humanitarian access to financial services. It also analyzes the limitations the resolution imposes on asset-freeze measures and specific humanitarian organizations, as well as the challenges of extending the carve-out for the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida regime beyond its expiration in December 2024. In order to maintain the positive impact on humanitarian operations of the resolution so far, including in situations impacted by the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida regime, and to realize the full potential of Resolution 2664 in safeguarding humanitarian action, this paper offers the following recommendations: Security Council members should decide a standing application of the humanitarian carve-out for the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida sanctions regime in December 2024. Humanitarian actors should continue to provide member states with evidence of the positive humanitarian impact of Resolution 2664. Humanitarian actors should continue to share information with member states and donors about their due-diligence and risk-mitigation practices and any instances of incidental benefits going to listed individuals or entities. All stakeholders should ensure that discussions around Resolution 2664 and the carve-out for the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida regime are fact- and evidence-based. Member states should fully implement Resolution 2664 in a harmonized manner and pursue efforts to socialize and operationalize it. All stakeholders should pursue and strengthen cross-sector engagement.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Sanctions, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Global Focus

466. Connecting Sexual Exploitation and Abuse and Sexual Harassment in UN Peace Operations

Author:
Phoebe Donnelly and Evyn Papworth
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Activists and researchers have long called attention to the harm UN peacekeepers can cause to populations where they deploy, including through sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) of civilians in the host community. More recently, researchers have pointed out that some UN peacekeepers also commit sexual harassment (SH) and assault against their peacekeeping colleagues while deployed. Both forms of sexual abuse have similar root causes, including unequal power dynamics and the abuse of power differentials. Nonetheless, SEA and SH fall under different UN policies and mechanisms. This creates confusion for policymakers, UN peacekeepers, and victims or survivors of all backgrounds. It can also undermine prevention efforts, considering that many of the same factors enable both forms of abuse. This issue brief considers why the divide between SEA and SH has come about and whether it is still useful for UN peacekeeping. It maps existing UN mechanisms for addressing SEA and SH and identifies gaps in their application to various groups of victims. It also examines the influence of mission culture and leadership on SEA and SH. While there are important differences between SEA against host communities and SH against peacekeepers, the report argues for shifting toward the more holistic concept of sexual exploitation, abuse, and harassment (SEAH). This could allow the UN to better prevent both SEA and SH by addressing the gendered power imbalances that lie at their root. It could also avoid creating false hierarchies of harm and ensure all victims of sexual abuse receive the same level of attention.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Sexual Violence, Sexual Exploitation, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

467. Logistics in Transition. Exploring Geopolitical, Economic, and Technological Trends

Author:
Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
International cooperation is paramount for building global connectivity and resilient logistic systems. Geopolitical shifts and climate change pose challenges that could disrupt the effective functioning of logistics. This underscores the need for policymakers and operators to implement mitigation measures that also enhance the security of supplies. Amidst global turmoil, diversification and redundancy of transportation systems and modes are crucial, with the security of supplies serving as the backbone for the smooth functioning of the global economy. In a geopolitically charged context, the challenges of the digital and green transition remain at the forefront. How can the resilience of value chains be increased in the face of geopolitical factors, while simultaneously navigating the dual transition? How can logistics adapt to and benefit from the new international wave of potentially protectionist industrial policies? How can risks be reduced, and what are the strategies for Europe, Italy, and the involved enterprises?
Topic:
International Cooperation, Economy, Logistics, Supply Chains, Green Transition, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

468. The tension between exploding AI investment costs and slow productivity growth

Author:
Bertin Martens
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This working paper explores the tension between rapidly increasing artificial intelligence investment costs and the slower pace of productivity growth, raising concerns about a potential ‘economic winter’ for AI. AI has shown significant technological progress, particularly with machine learning and generative AI models like ChatGPT. Investment in AI has surged. But there are concerns about whether these investments will yield proportional returns. Training costs for a single frontier AI model are increasing exponentially, , from $1,000 in 2017 to nearly $200 million in 2024, driven by constant returns to scale in AI model training data, compute capacity and model complexity. Costs could reach billions of dollars by 2030, despite a rapid fall in unit costs per computing operation over the same period. Global AI infrastructure costs in hardware could exceed $1 trillion by the mid-2030s. Amortizing these huge fixed costs requires business models that can be rolled out across a very large user market. Estimates about AI’s contribution to productivity growth vary, from a modest 0.5 percent per year to a very optimistic 10 percent per year. Research shows that productivity usually catches up slowly compared to costs. Without significant productivity gains, the current investment cost trajectory is unsustainable. We estimate that 3 percent annual productivity growth across advanced economies would be required to sustain AI model cost extrapolations to 2030. In an optimistic scenario, productivity increases would result in accelerated economic growth.
Topic:
Digital Economy, Economic Growth, Microeconomics, Artificial Intelligence, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

469. Are Carbon Border Adjustments a Dream Climate Policy or Protectionist Nightmare?

Author:
Gabriella Beaumont-Smith
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Climate change is an increasingly important consideration in trade policy. For instance, many countries try to limit their greenhouse gas emissions through domestic carbon pricing and regulatory schemes, and many trade agreements now include environmental provisions. In addition, some policymakers are looking to extend carbon pricing schemes to the international level. This has led to proposals for a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which would tax the carbon emissions connected to the imported goods at the same rate as the carbon tax applied to domestic products.
Topic:
Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, Protectionism, and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

470. Digital Trade Brings the World to Your Fingertips

Author:
Gabriella Beaumont-Smith
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Digital trade allows more goods and services to be traded internationally. For years, digital trade was not formally defined, but its increasing importance led to an established definition in 2019. The Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade defines digital trade as “all international trade that is digitally ordered and/​or digitally delivered.” This definition demonstrates that rather than being a sector of its own, digital trade describes the nature of certain transactions. Since digital trade is about the mode of particular international trade transactions, the complete value of digital trade is not captured in official trade statistics.
Topic:
Economy, Free Market, and Digital Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus