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441. The Trinity of COVID Era Inflation in G7 Economies

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon and Asher Rose
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
COVID era inflation was driven by a unique combination of three shocks: First, a plethora of pandemic-related shifts in demand patterns and disruptions to supply caused prices of consumer durable goods to skyrocket. Second, the Ukraine war caused the largest global commodity price surge in 40 years, which mainly affected prices of nondurable goods such as food and gasoline. Third, strong monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic recession caused labor markets to tighten, pushing up prices of services. This paper estimates models of the components of consumer prices in each G7 economy in order to document the transmission of these shocks. The first two shocks had run their course by 2023, enabling overall inflation to decline sharply from its 2022 peak. But labor markets remained at least moderately tight in most G7 economies in 2024, and services inflation remained noticeably higher than its pre-pandemic level.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, G7, COVID-19, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:
Global Focus

442. Inclusion of Loss and Damage as a Subgoal in the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)

Author:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:
The policy brief demonstrates how incorporating Loss and Damage (L&D) into the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) being discussed currently at COP 29 will address not only the equity gap for developing countries, but also provide a well-rounded and well-defined climate finance landscape. By anchoring L&D as a distinct component within the NCQG, developing countries can secure finances to respond to unavoidable climate impacts and non-economic loss and damage, ensuring a more comprehensive and just response to the climate crisis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, Equity, Loss and Damage (L&D), and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

443. An Integrative Framework to Assess Trade-Offs and Implications of Choosing Measurements

Author:
Laura García Montoya
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Deciding how to measure critical social science concepts like inequality and democracy is one of the most consequential decisions researchers and policymakers make. Yet we lack concrete guidelines to recognize and weigh the tradeoffs that make going from concept to measurement such a challenging task. This paper builds on existing work on measurement validity and develops a framework that allows scholars to identify the trade-offs between three desirable properties of measurement: completeness, interpretability, and normative alignment. The first challenge results from the inherent trade-off between completeness and interpretability. The second challenge results from the lack of empirical tools to assess the normative implications of choosing one indicator over another one. To exemplify how to navigate these challenges, the paper engages with debates on how to measure democracy and inequality. The paper aims to guide scholars in the consequential task of choosing one indicator that matches their research goals as well as their normative orientations.
Topic:
Poverty, Democracy, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

444. Statebuilding in fragile countries: What can we learn from past stateness?

Author:
Andrea Vaccaro and Rachel M. Gisselquist
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Supporting state capacity is a priority for the international community, yet the record of internationally supported statebuilding to date has been mixed at best. A key question for continuing research concerns the factors influencing more versus less successful interventions. We show that the quality of past ‘stateness’ is crucial in understanding contemporary state fragility and statebuilding. Extending beyond previous work, we introduce the concept of past stateness, consider theoretically its relationship to contemporary fragility, and explore this relationship empirically, drawing on cross-national data and newly developed indicators. In line with our expectations, descriptive and inferential analysis shows that lack of experience of two core features of stateness—monopoly of violence and existence of a professional bureaucracy—in the past century predicts chronic fragility today. This association is mainly driven by monopoly of violence rather than existence of a professional bureaucracy. Our analysis sheds new light on the underlying heterogeneity among states today labelled as ‘fragile’. From a policy perspective, a key implication is that, in designing interventions, the most relevant experiences are likely to be from other countries with similar stateness legacies, rather than from ‘fragile states’ more generally. Our analysis does not imply that statebuilding is impossible in contexts with weak stateness legacies, but it does underscore the challenges of this and the importance of setting expectations appropriately.
Topic:
Bureaucracy, State Fragility, Statebuilding, and Monopoly of Violence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

445. What Mode of Supply Will Matter the Most for the Future of Services Trade?

Author:
Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief looks at the latest trends in services trade and tries to show their importance, in its various manifestations, for virtually all countries in the world. The paper starts with a short history of trade in services across centuries. Fast forward to today’s realities, the paper uses the most comprehensive datasets documenting the latest trends in global trade in services by modes of supply, trying to fill a gap in trade policy analysis and providing new insights on the importance of different modes of supply for various countries. The paper concludes with some recommendations aimed at creating a bridge between the various policy priorities shaping the future of globalisation in coming years.
Topic:
Globalization, Services, Trade, and Supply
Political Geography:
Global Focus

446. Trade, Jobs and Technological Change: What to Expect in the Next Five Years?

Author:
Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief explores the intertwined effects of trade and technological change (notably robotics and AI) on employment, highlighting a growing divergence between the number of jobs supported by exports and the declining labour intensity of exports in recent years. The decline in labour intensity may be sharply accelerated by the rise of robotics and the automation of routine tasks, displacing workers in manufacturing and logistics while enhancing productivity. For many countries that have a strong dependence on the trade-jobs nexus, the historically declining labour intensity of exports combined with the rapid adoption of robotics in key economic sectors, will mean that industries could now rely on fewer workers for their exporting activities. This dual shock suggests that, in the future, the number of jobs that depend on trade may decline. The convergence of these forces may lead to certain sectors or regions bearing the brunt of such potential labour disruptions. To address these challenges, supporting policies will be required to mitigate these adverse effects.
Topic:
Globalization, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Trade, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

447. CTC Sentinel: January 2024 Issue

Author:
Haroun Rahimi, Andrew Watkins, Gabriel Weimann, Alexander T. Pack, and Rachel Sulciner
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the feature article, Haroun Rahimi and Andrew Watkins assess Taliban rule two and a half years into their renewed control of Afghanistan. They write: “Since their 2021 takeover, the Taliban have consolidated control over an impoverished and austere postwar Afghanistan. Since their victory, the Taliban’s emir has reasserted his status as a ‘supreme leader’ and oriented domestic policy in favor of highly conservative constituencies—which has revealed deep differences among their leadership of visions for the future of the Afghan state and society and how authority is divided among themselves. Yet, the Taliban have persistently prioritized the cohesion of their movement and governing apparatus. This trajectory has earned condemnation from Western states and prompted caution in the entire world’s engagement, which has in turn fueled Taliban motivations to reject foreign demands. After two and a half years of rule, the Taliban’s domestic agenda has become intertwined with their foreign relations impasse.” Gabriel Weimann, Alexander Pack, Rachel Sulciner, Joelle Scheinin, Gal Rapaport, and David Diaz write that “with the arrival and rapid adoption of sophisticated deep-learning models such as ChatGPT, there is growing concern that terrorists and violent extremists could use these tools to enhance their operations online and in the real world. Large language models have the potential to enable terrorists to learn, plan, and propagate their activities with greater efficiency, accuracy, and impact than ever before.” The authors offer “an early exploration of how these large language models could be exploited by terrorists or other violent extremists … to support their efforts in training, conducting operational planning, and developing propaganda.” Georgia Gilroy decodes al-Shabaab’s social media strategy, outlining the “controlled, adaptive, and coordinated approach the terrorist group takes to its online behavior.” She writes that the group’s “continued resilience, even in the face of mounting counterinsurgency efforts, is underpinned by its sophisticated communications architecture.” Christian Jokinen assesses whether left-wing terrorism is making a comeback in Germany in a case study of the violent left-wing Engel – Guntermann network. He writes that “the recent concerning trend among German left-wing extremists is toward greater violence and transnationalism.”
Topic:
Terrorism, Taliban, Violent Extremism, Artificial Intelligence, Leftist Politics, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, South America, Germany, and Global Focus

448. CTC Sentinel: February 2024 Issue

Author:
Don Rassler, Sean Morrow, Don Rassler, Kristina Hummel, and Daisy Muibu
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Long-range aerial attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi terrorist group, including a ballistic missile that traveled at least a thousand miles toward Israel before being intercepted (reportedly in space) on October 31, 2023, are focusing minds on long-range stand-off terrorism. In this month’s feature article, which conceptualizes, outlines, and examines the implications of this emerging threat vector, Don Rassler argues that the notion that terrorists could strike the United States across the oceans with unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is becoming increasingly less far-fetched. Rassler writes that “over the coming decade, hydrogen fuel cell and solar UAS technology will evolve and mature, and will also likely become more available and accessible to the average consumer, which will make longer ranges more accessible as well. Other disruptive technologies, such as generative artificial intelligence, will also mature and will likely be used by extremists to help them optimize system performance and to overcome, or devise creative solutions to, technical long-range UAS challenges.” He warns that “long-range stand-off terrorism will be attractive to some extremists because it opens-up new attack pathways, can enable surprise, and has the potential to deliver a potent psychological, ‘we can strike you from afar’ punch. Over the next decade advancements in commercial technologies and systems will also make range, and extended range, more accessible for violent non-state-entities, making it likely that in the future long-range terrorism will become even more of a threat.” Rassler’s article is the first in a new recurring series in CTC Sentinel entitled “On the Horizon” that will examine emerging counterterrorism challenges. Our interview is with Christopher Maier, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict. “We need to have sustainable CT operations that prevent terrorists’ actions, principally al-Qa`ida and ISIS, to ensure we are not distracted by what we view as the longer-term strategic priorities, such as peer adversaries,” he says. “As the rest of the Department and other parts of the U.S. government are doing less CT, [this] means that those who are doing it have to do it better and, in many respects, do it more proportionally to the rest of the national security enterprise. This is why SOF is looked to as the lead for the CT fight in the Department.” Daisy Muibu examines the state of Somalia’s military campaign against al-Shabaab. She writes that: “A year and five months after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the initial optimism that characterized its first few months have diminished as the counterinsurgency’s momentum has stalled in the central regions of the country.” She adds that “with only a year left until African Union forces are mandated to fully draw down, significant obstacles remain that cast doubts over the government’s ambitious goals to defeat al-Shabaab and assume full responsibility for securing the country by December 31, 2024.”
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Artificial Intelligence, Houthis, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Somalia, Global Focus, and United States of America

449. CTC Sentinel: March 2024 Issue

Author:
Barak Mendelsohn, Paul Cruickshank, Caleb Weiss, and Ryan O'Farrell
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Barak Mendelsohn examines the future of the jihadi movement. His article is the second in a new recurring series in CTC Sentinel entitled “On the Horizon” that examines emerging counterterrorism challenges and long-term developments. Mendelsohn writes that over 20 years after 9/11, “jihadi violence in the West is low, but the number of Sunni jihadi outfits around the world has increased. And while the central leaderships of both al-Qa`ida and the Islamic State appear in tatters, many of their affiliates are experiencing expansion.” He argues that “anti-regime grievances, the appeal of religious ideology, and the ability to hurt, are likely to maintain jihadism as a viable resistance ideology.” He further warns that “jihadism is still a powerful force and is making inroads in various regions” and that “a more modest jihadi strategy with a regional focus is offering jihadis a new path forward.” But, he notes, “a sustainable jihadi success would require moderation that is simply antithetical to the nature of the ideology.” Our interview is with Mitchell D. Silber, the executive director of the Community Security Initiative, an intiative “created by the leading organizations in the Jewish community in New York to protect the Jewish population and Jewish institutions in the Greater New York City metro area.” He previously served as Director of Intelligence Analysis at the New York City Police Department. Silber describes how in the months since the October 7 attacks in Israel, there has been a surge in antisemitic threats and violence in the greater New York area. “This is kind of like a category five storm. Five times the amount of hateful postings that our intelligence desk had to vet through,” he says, adding that “since October 7, 2023, there have been at least 23 anti-Jewish assaults in New York City.” He outlines how in response to these grave threats, the Jewish “community, leadership, and organizations have rallied, have risen to the occasion, and are now creating the security architecture that we never had before in the United States in order to meet the moment.” Finally, Caleb Weiss and Ryan O’Farrell examine how Operation Shujaa, launched in late 2021 by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda against the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) in the border regions of the DRC near Uganda, has degraded the ability of the group to disseminate propaganda via the Islamic State’s central media apparatus. They write: “While still a serious and deadly threat inside Congo and beyond, [ISCAP’s] propaganda output is a shell of its former self. This decline is, in part, thanks to the current joint Ugandan-Congolese operations against it.”
Topic:
Terrorism, Islamic State, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, Antisemitism, and Salafi-Jihadism
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, New York, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Global Focus, and United States of America

450. CTC Sentinel: October 2024 Issue

Author:
Don Rassler, Sean Morrow, Brian Dodwell, Paul Cruickshank, and Sean Morrow
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
I’m thankful to borrow this space from our Editor-in Chief, Paul Cruikshank. Our CTC Sentinel, its editorial board, and our incredible contributors have long provided our readers with details, data, and insight on terrorist groups, tools of violence, trends, and counterterrorism. In short, Sentinel has helped drive the conversations on what to think about for our global audience. As the United States changes administrations in the face of extraordinary complexity, we opted to frame this issue slightly differently. This issue is focused on how we think about terrorism and counterterrorism. The feature article this month comes from Don Rassler and focuses on the pressure states place on violent extremist organizations (VEOs) and how those campaigns of pressure can defend against threats and degrade the capabilities of VEOs. We are privileged to feature General Bryan Fenton, Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, in this month’s Foxhole interview. He shares his insight on the global threat, the critical role of SOF in strategic competition, and the importance of allies and partners in the global CT fight. Brian Fishman, co-founder of Cinder and formerly Director of Counterterrorism, Dangerous Organizations, and Content Policy at Facebook, helps us understand the realm of online and digital counter terrorism through five key lessons from his time in industry. Dr. Daniel Milton, Director of Terrorism Studies at the George C. Marshall Center, gives us critical insight into how groups choose to expand to external operations (EXOPS) based on a group’s opportunity and willingness to “go big.” In a complementary article, our Executive Director, Brian Dodwell, teams up with Don Rassler and Paul Cruickshank to use survey data to provide perspectives on indicators and warning (I&W) for terrorism, key challenges in the I&W space, and how I&W approaches could evolve. Finally, I collaborate with Don Rassler to offer a few thoughts on CT return on investment, specifically at the intersection of CT and strategic competition, through a new framework designed by Don and informed by interviews with regional experts and partners from the CT community. The article demonstrates the returns to key efforts with regard to mitigation and influence where CT and strategic competition converge.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Global Focus