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481. Consumer Bankruptcy Regimes and Credit Default in the US and Europe

Author:
Maria Gerhardt
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This CEPS Working Document explains the consumer bankruptcy procedures in the US and the five largest European countries: the UK, Germany, France and Spain, plus Italy (which has no special legal provisions for consumer insolvency). All these countries have quite different approaches; the paper therefore presents a short overview of the insolvency procedures and trends in bankruptcy numbers for each country.
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

482. An Education Track for the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:
A. Heather Coyne, Barbara Zasloff, and Adina Shapiro
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
President Barack Obama declared in his June 4thaddress at Cairo University that “all of us must recognize that education and innovation will be the currency of the 21st century.” His emphasis throughout the speech on the importance of educational initiatives reflects the central role that education can play in preparing communities for change. This is particularly relevant in regard to the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians. Education can be an important component of fostering positive change in social values, attitudes and skills that are necessary to overcome the pain of conflict and to cope with the frustrations involved in a peace process. Alternatively, education can reinforce conflict-producing myths and stereotypes, serving as a battleground where social groups are demonized, and different communities compete over history and the society's narratives.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Middle East, South Africa, Arabia, Germany, and North Ireland

484. Mastering Global Financial Crises: a German Perspective

Author:
Jörg Asmussen
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The world economy has experienced a downturn of historical dimensions since the onset of 2009. Almost everywhere, production has declined rapidly, world trade has virtually collapsed, and the recession has spread to all major economic regions. The global financial crisis is the culmination of an exceptional boom in credit growth and leverage in the financial system. Low interest rates, abundant liquidity, and low volatility prompted investors to search for higher yields without an adequate appreciation of related risks. Financial institutions developed new structures and innovative risky instruments to meet investors' demand for higher yields. Investors in turn, overly optimistic about continued rises in asset prices, did not look closely enough into the nature of the assets they bought. They mostly relied on the analysis of credit rating agencies which were, in some cases, also selling advice on how to develop the rated products. This failure of market discipline played a considerable role in the crisis.
Topic:
Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Germany

485. The Political Economy of Heterogeneous Development: Quantile Effects of Income and Education

Author:
Marcus Alexander, Matthew Harding, and Carlos Lamarche
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Does development lead to the establishment of more democratic institutions? The key to the puzzle, we argue, is the previously unrecognized fact that based on quantitative regime scores, countries over the past 50 years have clustered into two separate, very distinct, yet equally-common stages of political development—authoritarian states with low levels of freedom on one side an d democracies with liberal institutions on the other side of a bimodal distribution of political regimes. We develop a new empirical strategy—exploiting exogenous world economic factors and introducing new panel data estimators—that allows for the first time to estimate the effects of development as well as unobserved country effects in driving democracy at these different stages of political development. We find that income and education have the least effect on democracy when authoritarian regimes are consolidated and that only country effects, possibly accounting for institutional legacies, can lead to political development. Ironically, it is in highly democratic and wealthiest of nations that income and education start to play a role; however greater wealth and better educated citizenry can both help and hurt democracy depending again on what the country's institutional legacies are. Far from accepting the notion that much of the developing world is cursed by unchanging and poor long-run institutions, policy-makers should take note that with democratization we also see country-specific factors that in turn condition the difference income and education make for democracy.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, Asia, and Germany

486. Are the Afghan Taliban Involved in International Terrorism?

Author:
Anne Stenersen
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In a video aired on ABC News in June 2007, Afghan Taliban commander Mansour Dadullah is shown speaking to a group of around 300 masked men. The men are presented as “suicide bombers” about to go on missions in Western countries, in particular to the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany. The video created considerable media attention, but was soon dismissed as “jihadist bravado” rather than representing a genuine threat. Two years after it was aired, the Afghan Taliban have yet to put Dadullah's words into action.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Taliban, and Germany

487. Leaders and laggards, on the way down and up

Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
With the economies of most countries having passed their troughs, it is a good time to take stock of some of the main features of the crisis so far and to assess what the upturn may look like. In this article, we look back at how the different countries have fared in this crisis and how monetary and fiscal authorities have responded to the crisis. We then turn to the nascent recovery to compare and contrast the upturn across countries. Finally, we highlight some of the main legacies of this crisis. Exposure to financial services, housing booms, consumer debt and trade with the US were seen as factors that would make some countries suffer deeper downturns than others. In the event, the downturn has surprised by how quickly it has spread across countries. So the most affected countries turned out to be the most exposed to the world economy such as Germany, Italy, Japan and Eastern Europe. All major central banks have responded with aggressive cuts in interest rates and adopted wide-ranging unconventional measures. This has helped stabilise financial markets, but the goal of getting credit flowing to the non-financial economy has not yet been achieved. Governments have also responded to the crisis with large fiscal stimulus packages. These packages have helped contain the collapse in activity and contributed to some countries exiting the recession in 2009Q2. Whether these packages will be enough to get the world economy back on a sustainable growth path is still uncertain though. Beyond the short term, where fiscal stimulus and the stock cycle will boost growth, the recovery is expected to be sluggish and bumpy in most places. History suggests that recoveries from financial crises tend to be slower than others, and the repair of household and corporate balance sheets will be a drawn out process. In addition, with large amounts of spare capacity around the world, demand for investment will be weak for some time to come. Furthermore, the nascent upturn has already put pressure on oil and commodity prices. If this continues, it will hamper growth in net importer economies. These factors will combine with country-specific features that determine their potential growth. We forecast the recovery to be most drawn out in Italy, Japan and Germany as these countries are hit by weak demand for investment goods and are characterised by relatively low potential growth. One main legacy of this crisis is the likelihoo d of years of fiscal austerity, to bring public deficits back under control. Another legacy may be in changes to the regulation of financial services, although do date little progress has been made in this area. In addition, EMU has so far proved a resilient entity during the crisis, so that the euro could gain a more prominent role on the world stage, depending on how it fares in the upturn.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Markets
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, Germany, and Italy

488. Eurozone Unity Under Threat?

Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Ten years after the introduction of the euro, the onset of deep recession in the Eurozone has triggered concern that the single currency might impose intolerable strains upon some members. With some countries hit hard by the impact of the credit crunch, there are mounting concerns about a possible debt default by one or more member states, which in turn might threaten the euro and even the existence of the Eurozone. With the Eurozone economy forecast to contract by 3.1% this year, unemployment is starting to climb steeply and fiscal deficits are soaring. This has raised concerns about deteriorating public finances in a number of countries, leading to sharply wider spreads on government bonds and credit rating downgrades for Greece, Spain and Portugal, with Ireland maybe facing a similar fate soon. And repercussions from the growing economic crisis in Central and Eastern Europe are adding to the problem, with Austria particularly exposed. Rising bond spreads were always intended to be the mechanism that would restrain public spending by more profligate Eurozone countries. But the question now is whether the weaker economies can withstand the strains that a lengthy period of recession will impose and, at the same time, adopt credible medium-term spending plans to ward off the worst of the downturn and retain market confidence. With fiscal deficits already rising as a result of bank bailouts, fiscal packages and recession will push budget deficits far above the 3% of GDP target – Ireland, facing a deficit of 12% of GDP, and Spain will be worst hit. And with rising deficits and higher bond spreads pushing up the cost of debt, countries face a sharp rise in their level of indebtedness, with Greece and Italy seeing debt/GDP ratios around 100%. This deterioration could lead to a further downward spiral if the recession is prolonged and will be a test of countries' euro commitment, which has remained strong thus far despite rising social tensions in some countries. At this stage, the problems remain manageable and the risk of default or of countries leaving the euro is still very low. Bond spreads are still much lower than during much of the 1990s, when countries were striving to qualify for euro membership, and the currency risks attached to leaving the euro would be substantial. Moreover, EU countries that have been exposed to considerable currency strain over the past year are anxious to join the Eurozone as soon as possible, to take advantage of the benefits of a stable currency. While some smaller countries may experience financial difficulties, it seems inevitable that the larger Eurozone members would step in to stabilise the situation – failure to do so would risk contagion spreading to other countries, which in turn would cause even deeper problems for the euro. More policy action also seems likely to counter this threat – although the German government will probably remain reluctant to countenance the scale of expansionary fiscal policy really needed at this time. Current policies inevitably mean a long hard slog back towards fiscal rectitude in the years ahead, with monetary policy also tightening and growth slower than previously expected. Fiscal federalism may also have to be on the agenda. All this will undoubtedly lead to ongoing strains within the Eurozone. And any measures by governments that appear to be protectionist – such as the support for the French car industry – will only fuel these tensions.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

489. Report of the Conference "Is Regional Cooperation in the Maghreb Possible? Implications for the Region and External Actors"

Author:
Silvia Colombo
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), in cooperation with the International Affairs Institute (IAI) of Rome, held the second seminar of the Mediterranean Strategy Group in Genoa on May 10-12 2009 under the title “Is Regional Cooperation in the Maghreb Possible? Implications for the Region and External Actors”. The meeting is part of a multi-year project of dialogue and analysis exploring critical Mediterranean issues in a transatlantic context. The Mediterranean Strategy Group is conducted with the support of the Compagnia di San Paolo, ENEL, OCP Group, the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, and the Luso-American Foundation. The decision to convene the meeting in Genoa was in keeping with the city's identity and role as a “gateway to the Mediterranean,” and the discussion benefited from both the setting and the assistance of the municipality.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Germany, and North Africa

490. The Judgement of the German Constitutional Court on the Lisbon Treaty

Author:
Michael Bothe
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
By its judgment of 30 June 2009, the German Federal Constitutional Court cleared the way for the German ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. The reasoning of the Court, however, contains fundamental holdings on the current legal character of the European Union and on constitutional limitations concerning its possible development.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany