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81. Development Finance at a Turning Point: Effects and Policy Recommendations

Author:
Kathrin Berensmann, Sabine Laudage Teles, Christoph Sommer, and Yabibal M. Walle
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Development finance is at a turning point, as the macroeconomic environment has changed profoundly and the financing gap for low- and middle-income countries has widened. The events that led to this new situation are the multiple crises that the global economy is facing, such as the climate crisis, the COVID-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine. As a result, interest rates have risen sharply over the past year and are not expected to decline anytime soon. High interest rates further restrict low- and middle-income countries’ access to international financial markets by making borrowing more expensive. At the same time, debt levels in several countries are rising to levels that are almost impossible to repay. Poorer countries find themselves in a trap where financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) becomes a distant goal for them. To “get back on track” in financing the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs, a number of reform proposals have been put forward within several processes and initiatives, including the Financing for Development (FfD) process, the Bridgetown Initiative and the Macron-led Paris Summit. Despite being initiated by different actors, these proposals all highlight the importance of reforming the international financial architecture in view of the changed macroeconomic environment. The Hamburg Sustainability Conference in June 2024, the United Nation’s Summit of the Future in 2024 and the next FfD Conference in 2025 should be used to strengthen and accelerate ongoing reform processes and come up with new, innovative and bold proposals to reshape development finance in these challenging times. Against the background of the multiple crises and its effects, our key recommendations for the reform of development finance are as follows.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Reform, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:
Germany and Global Focus

82. Germany’s Energiewende: Synergies, Trade-offs and Political Drivers

Author:
Alexia Faus Onbargi and Ines Dombrowsky
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
There has been a significant policy shift in Germany’s energy transition – the Energiewende – resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent war. The Easter Package, rolled out in Spring 2022, set a series of ambitious renewable energy targets and laws to enable both climate action and energy security. These are to be implemented in tandem with existing laws such as the Coal Exit Law and the Federal Climate Change Act. Aligning policies and targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ensure energy reliability and affordability requires concerted policy coherence, a policy process to pursue multiple goals in a way that maximises synergies and minimises trade-offs. Reducing trade-offs (and their consequences) is especially crucial if the energy transition is to be just for all and become a vehicle towards a broader Just Transition, as well as to achieve the aims of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (including “leaving no one behind”) and the Paris Agreement. This policy brief first examines some of the most important policies – and (in)coherences – pertaining to the Energiewende, with a specific focus on the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), one of Germany’s main coal-mining regions. The brief then goes on to explore the main political drivers – through the lens of ideas, interests and institutions – of policy (in)coherence in two parallel Energiewende policy processes that are particularly relevant to the electricity sector: the coal phase-out and the phase-in of onshore wind. Although solar power and green hydrogen are also key to a successful Energiewende, these are not the subject of this brief. Our insights derive from policy document analysis and 28 semi-structured interviews. To move towards a Just Transition, the following recommendations are made to promote coherence in Germany’s Energiewende and inform the ongoing revision of the NRW Sustainability Strategy (last updated in 2020). The recommendations may also be of interest to the newly appointed NRW Advisory Board on Sustainability: • Mitigate ideological, institutional and interest-based barriers to ambitious climate action by ensuring a political commitment to policy coherence. In NRW in particular, this means meeting recent promises to deliver a coal phase-out by 2030 and lift the 1,000 metre (m) “rule” (i.e. 1 kilometre (km) between residential buildings and wind turbines), as well as mitigating arising conflicts between residents’ interests, particularly around the sharing of profits. Such commitments should be made explicit in the revised NRW Sustainability Strategy and legislated. • Promote greater political equality in all Energiewende policy-making decision processes at all governance levels (i.e. federal, state and municipal) in consultative and participatory mechanisms towards greater energy democracy. Reducing political in-equality is key to increase the public’s acceptance of renewable energy projects (e.g. through cooperatives) – one of the aims of the latest NRW Sustainability Strategy.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Transition, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

83. The Gendered Nature of Poverty: Data, Evidence and Policy Recommendations

Author:
Francesco Burchi and Daniele Malerba
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Poverty and gender equality are at the heart of the 2030 Agenda and are key strategic areas for Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). It has been often argued that poverty is gendered: at the 1995 UN World Conference on Women, 70 per cent of the world’s poor was said to be female. However, that figure is not backed by sound scientific evidence. There are several challenges to examining the relationship between gender and poverty. The main one is that monetary poverty is calculated at the household level: it is not possible to distinguish the poverty status of different household members. Theoretically, it is possible to analyse poverty by gender by focusing on non-monetary dimensions, as several feminist scholars advocate. However, the most well-known indices of multidimensional poverty have the same problems as those for income poverty: they are computed at the household level. Therefore, we do not really know if – or to what extent – poverty is gendered. Recent studies conducted by IDOS researchers help fill this gap by analysing gender disparities in multidimensional poverty in more than 80 low- and middle-income countries and using individual-level indices, which encompass three dimensions: education, health and employment. This policy brief summarises the main findings of the IDOS studies and presents key policy recommendations. The research reveals the female face of poverty. In recent years, female multidimensional poverty has been higher than male multidimensional poverty almost everywhere: on average, the former is about 70 per cent higher than the latter. Depending on the specific poverty index used, women make up between 54 and 63 per cent of the impoverished population. Gender disparities vary substantially across the world: the largest disparities are visible in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and South Asia. The research also shows that from the late 1990s/early 2000s most countries experienced increased gender disparities in poverty, a process often referred to as the “feminisation of poverty”. This largely occurred in Europe and Central Asia, as well as in Latin America and the Caribbean. The very large gender disparities in MENA and South Asia have persisted for decades. The studies also find that the increase in gender disparities occurred especially in rural areas and was mostly driven by an increase in disparities in access to paid employment. To tackle the gendered nature of poverty, we recommend: • Incentivising women’s employment and pro-moting the care economy. Care policies can partly free women from their care duties and/or recognise the economic value of care work, thereby increasing employment opportunities for women. Expanding the (professional) care sector – and more generally, the service sector – also creates job opportunities for women. • Adopting gender-responsive social protection. Cash transfers can benefit women in particular but should include clear gender-equality goals and be designed to challenge existing gender norms (rather than reinforce them). • Tackling gender norms. Eliminating discriminatory laws and regulations can help in the short term; education and awareness campaigns are critical in the long run. • Advocating for and realising the (gender) data revolution. It is necessary to invest in ad-hoc data collection focused on individual and female experiences of poverty.
Topic:
Poverty, Equality, Gender, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

84. Ten urgent Franco-German issues for Europe

Author:
Joachim Bitterlich
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In recent years, political and economic upheavals have accelerated: the ongoing migration crisis, the spillover of the conflictual relationship between the United States and China, the global pandemic, the energy crisis, Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine and the conflict over Gaza following the terrorist attack by Hamas. Faced with this growing insecurity and volatility, the European Union has shown to be only partially united, or even convincing: in some respects, Europe seems to be rather more on the defensive. It is far from achieving its objective of being a global player on the same level as the United States or China on the international scale, and is unable to demonstrate a real strategy to tackle these accumulated challenges and, above all, to convince Europe’s populations. In the light of the electoral trends, we have been observing for some time in various Member States, the European elections in June 2024 may even further jeopardise the strength and prospects of the European Union, as well as its operational capacities. Under these conditions, how can we ensure its credibility and cohesion in a deeply troubled world? An ambitious programme of consolidation and reinsurance is a political necessity now more than ever. Such a programme, initiated by Paris and Berlin, should provide a common compass for the Union over the next five years. In my view this comprises 10 urgent inputs.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Interview, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

85. Fair Competition for an Evolving Economy

Author:
Keldon Bester
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Fair competition is essential to economic growth. Without it, corporate concentration takes over. Canada’s permissive merger law has allowed a small number of big corporations to dominate key sectors of the Canadian economy, resulting in limited consumer choice. Although Canada’s competition laws are currently under review, its global peers are taking steps to protect competition in their own economies. This paper recommends that Canada should focus on the role of fair competition in its competition law framework, specifically differentiating beneficial and harmful competition. Canada’s abuse of dominance provision protects against anti-competitive conduct, but it does little to protect new and emerging competitors. This paper suggests that Canada should look to international peers such as the European Union, Germany and the United States for cues to reform its own system.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Legislation, Corporations, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, Germany, North America, and United States of America

86. Territorial Loss and Ethnopopulism

Author:
Perry Jess Carter and Grigore Pop-Eleches
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
This paper highlights the overlooked role of prior grievances stemming from historical territorial loss as a significant factor behind support for ethnopopulist parties. While not essential for the emergence of ethnopopulism, territorial loss uniquely aligns with the backward-looking victimization framing crucial to these parties’ electoral success. Utilizing cross-national experimental and observational data from original surveys conducted in 2020–2021 in Romania, Hungary, Germany, and Turkey, we establish territorial loss attitudes as a robust predictor of ethnopopulist party support. In addition to variations in national context, a trade-off emerges for governing populists, revealing that priming past losses attracts concerned voters but alienates those indifferent to territorial issues. Analyzing a quasi-natural experiment involving a new ethnopopulist party that emerged in Romania between waves, we conclude that loss attitudes are stable over time and temporally prior to support for populism.
Topic:
Politics, Territorial Disputes, Populism, and Territory
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Germany, Romania, and Hungary

87. Analysing the German construction industry’s supply chains

Author:
Johanna Neuhoff, Hannah Zick, and Andy Logan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The supply chain disruptions triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, the blockade of the Suez Canal, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were historically unique for Germany’s construction sector. Our research showed how these supply chain disruptions affected construction companies in various ways and identified strategies to help overcome them. The dominant effects were higher purchase prices, longer waiting times, and increased resources devoted towards planning. These longer waiting times meant greater difficulties in processing existing orders and a consequent need to forego new orders, which in turn led to a loss of turnover. Our research also found its supply chain was more globally intertwined than previously understood: the sector generates 40% of gross value added via imported services. Thirteen of the 57 imported intermediate inputs were found to be highly vulnerable. Other industry-specific characteristics include a high level of manufacturing complexity, which leads to a large number of required products. Meanwhile warehousing is often difficult, meaning supply chain interruptions have a direct impact on production capacity. Our recommendations to the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs, and Spatial Development were that companies should: Control their supply chains as completely as possible with digital technologies —from procurement and logistics to delivery to the construction site; Use digitalisation to detect disruptions at an earlier stage and react to them; Secure greater supply of raw materials through domestic production; Replace fossil energy sources with renewable energies; Select their suppliers in a diversified manner as far as possible; and Promote innovation for new future technologies.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, COVID-19, Logistics, Supply Chains, Production, Construction, Russia-Ukraine War, Digital Technologies, and Warehousing
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

88. Good Practices in the Provision of Global Public Goods: How multilateral development banks build on global public goods in their operations

Author:
Johanna Neuhoff and Hannah Zick
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
In our flagship report, ‘Multilateral Development Banks for Global Public Goods’, commissioned by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Oxford Economics highlighted the positive role that the use of GPGs can play in preventing and addressing crises that cross national boundaries. As part of that work, we wanted to identify and share promising practices and good examples of how the provision of GPGs can be supported through international funding—and in particular through MDBs. We gathered a longlist of 99 examples of MDBs supporting GPG provision based on comprehensive desk research and interviews with over 30 key actors in the realm of project development. From this, we selected 20 case studies to carry out “deep dive” research to showcase good practices of provision of GPGs by MDBs based on whether the intervention: benefitted not only people inside the country of implementation but also beyond the country’s borders; supported the implementation of framework conditions that change the incentive structure for the provision of GPGs; could be replicated in other countries; and rated a good practice in reports or named a good practice by interview partners from MDBs. As a result, we gathered examples of GPG projects supported by MDBs and multilateral institutions at the country level that might not have been intended to only support GPG provision—such as those GPG projects mostly financed via Trust Funds and FIFs—but which also produced high GPG effects by maximising the synergies between national and global benefits. The case studies are designed to inform stakeholders from MDBs and receiving countries involved in the programming and project designing of development cooperation alike. The case studies showcase promising and highly replicable ways of supporting the provision of GPGs in the MDBs’ country engagement—considering both national and cross-country benefits of an intervention. Furthermore, valuable lessons can be learned on the institutional set-up, financing, quantification etc. concerning the support of GPGs by MDBs. They include examples of projects in sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia & Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia, and which covered issues such as climate and the environment, global public health, peace and security, financial resilience, and a fair international trading system. In a synthesis report, we set out 12 recommendations to organisations implementing GPGs to ensure they maximise the benefits on the ground, based on our findings from the analysis of the case studies. These range from using cost-benefit analysis and focusing on projects with high cross-country benefits to helping coordination of in-country provision and encouraging regional learning.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Institutions, Public Health, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:
South Asia, East Asia, Germany, Latin America, Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, Global Focus, and Sub-Saharan Africa

89. A Bitter Adjustment for German Family Capitalism: Succession and a Changing Ownership Transfer Regime

Author:
Isabell Stamm and Allan Sandham
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Germany is known for its family-owned businesses that transfer ownership across generations. However, business owners in Germany increasingly envision selling their business beyond the family, which fundamentally changes the institutionalized way private ownership of businesses is transferred. In this paper, we analyze and explain this fundamental change in German family capitalism since the 1990s. Drawing on a sociology of ownership, we view family succession as a transfer regime and show how this regime has been problematized and gradually reframed. Based on analysis of a rich corpus of documents, archival materials, and twenty-seven expert interviews, we show how a new transfer regime – the exit regime – emerges, which coordinates ownership transfer among founders through matchmaking. Our study contributes to research on family capitalism and succession by demonstrating how family capital moves toward the financial sector without becoming financial capital as it loses the family and gains the founder as personalized points of reference.
Topic:
Regime Change, Capitalism, Family, Succession, and Ownership
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

90. What Growth Strategies Do Citizens Want? Evidence from a New Survey

Author:
Lucio Baccaro, Bjorn Bremer, and Erik Neimanns
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
While research on the economic characteristics of growth models across countries is now extensive, research on the politics of growth models is still in its infancy, even though governments routinely pursue different strategies to generate growth. In particular, we lack evidence on (1) whether citizens have coherent preferences towards growth strategies, (2) what growth strategies citizens prefer, and (3) what shapes their preferences. We address these questions through a new survey of public opinion in Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, which exemplify different models. We find that preferences for growth strategies are consistent with other policy preferences and are meaningfully structured by class and retirement status, and to a lesser extent by sector of employment. At the same time, differences across class and sector are small, and a large majority of respondents across countries favor wage-led growth. This suggests there is a “representation gap,” since this particular growth strategy is in crisis everywhere.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Capitalism, Economic Growth, Representation, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany