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91. Turning No Tides: Union Effects on Partisan Preferences and the Working-Class Metamorphosis

Author:
Sinisa Hadziabdic
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Relying on panel data for Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the paper examines the impact of union membership on partisan preferences. By leveraging panel data to control for time-invariant selection effects, we show that unions exert a small consistent left‑wing influence on the average wage earner who becomes affiliated, but they are no longer able to modify the preferences of working-class members. A longitudinal approach reveals that changes in partisan preferences can be linked to members’ preexisting predispositions and to the prevalent political views within unions. Unions mainly attract individuals who already share their political inclinations before joining. These preexisting left-wing convictions allow an additional left-wing shift to take place through a value congruence mechanism provoked by interactions with long-term union members who are even more left-wing oriented than the newcomers. Symmetrically, working-class joiners exhibit less pronounced left-wing inclinations before becoming affiliated, a gap that widens further after they join as a consequence of their unmet expectations.
Topic:
Class, Political Parties, Trade Unions, Panel Data, and Comparative Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, and Switzerland

92. Top Wealth and Its Historical Origins: An Analysis of Germany’s Largest Privately Held Fortunes in 2019

Author:
Daria Tisch and Emma Ischinsky
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Rising wealth inequality is both a topic in recent policy discussion and in the social sciences. Despite the general interest in wealth concentration, we know only little about the largest privately held fortunes. To help fill this gap we analyze the historical origins of Germany’s 1,032 largest fortunes in 2019. In particular, we identify the share of entrenched fortunes – fortunes which date back to the beginning of the twentieth century – and ask to what extent they differ from more recently established ones. Furthermore, we examine in an exploratory way if entrenched fortunes are connected to fortunes with more recent origins through family lines. We use a journalistic rich list published by the manager magazin in 2019, which we link with both rich lists from 1912/1914 and Wikidata. We find that about eight percent of today’s fortunes can be traced back to fortunes held by the same families in 1913. Regression analyses show that entrenched fortunes rank on average higher on the rich list than the remaining ones. Descriptive network analyses indicate that some of today’s largest fortunes are intertwined through marital lines, hinting at social closure at the top. Our findings indicate that the accumulation and perpetuation of fortunes over many generations is an important feature of top wealth in Germany.
Topic:
Family, Elites, Wealth, Inheritance, and Network Analysis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

93. Why does Germany maintain its rapprochement with China?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
During a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Frankfurt in early October 2023, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner emphasized the importance of developing economic ties between Berlin and Beijing and enhancing joint cooperation on some critical issues, particularly poverty alleviation and climate change.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economics, Poverty, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Germany

94. The Cyclical Behaviour of Government Spending for Social Protection: Is the OECD Methodology Robust?

Author:
Aleksandr Arsenev, Philipp Heimberger, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Spending elasticities measure the reaction of different government spending components to the business cycle. They are important inputs for fiscal forecasts, and they are particularly relevant in the context of European Union (EU) fiscal rules, as elasticity estimates enter the estimation of fiscal space. This paper analyses the sensitivity of the estimation method used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Commission to obtain government spending elasticities by focusing on 11 EU countries in the 1995-2020 period. Our results suggest that spending elasticities are sensitive to small variations in data and model specification. For most EU countries, we reject the assumption that only unemployment spending responds to cyclical variations. While unemployment spending is indeed a major driver of counter-cyclical social spending, other categories of social spending also show signs of responding to the business cycle.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Finance, Macroeconomics, Public Debt, Social Spending, Public Spending, and Fiscal Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, Poland, Germany, Denmark, Romania, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Austria, and Czechia

95. Technological Sophistication Made in China? – New Insights from Germany’s Evaluation of COVID-19 Antigen Rapid Tests

Author:
Silas Dreier and Wan-Hsin Liu
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
By analyzing a unique dataset from Germany’s evaluation of COVID-19 antigen rapid tests, we show that Chinese firms can excel under today’s global competition and produce tests at quality levels higher than China’s income level would suggest. We find these achievements are positively associated with China’s rising innovation capability and robust industrial base. Further strengthening China’s innovation and industrial base to support Chinese firms’ future accomplishments is what the Chinese government clearly aims for. This would intensify the challenges facing Western economies that strive for technological sovereignty and eagerly seek to de-risk their economic relations with China.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Innovation, Trade, COVID-19, Production, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Germany

96. German Economy in Winter 2023: Public budget under stress – Recovery faces headwinds

Author:
Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Dominik Groll, Timo Hoffmann, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Nils Sonnenberg, and Vincent Stamer
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The German economy is struggling to emerge from stagnation. GDP is likely to increase again in 2024, but the economic momentum will remain low. The strong growth in real disposable income will boost private consumption. However, the increases in interest rates continue to weigh on construction investment and there are no signs of large impulses from the world economy ahead. Moreover, the fiscal consolidation because of the Federal Constitutional Court's judgement on the supplementary budget for 2021 will slow economic expansion. There is uncertainty regarding the exact structuring of the reductions in expenditure as well as their economic impact. In the forecast, the additional savings will reduce growth in GDP by around 0.3 percentage points in 2024. Overall, we now expect GDP to increase by 0.9 percent in the coming year and thus at a slower pace than in our autumn forecast (1.3 percent). In 2025, economic output is likely to increase by 1.2 percent (autumn forecast: 1.5 percent). The decline in the current year of 0.3 percent will be slightly lower than expected in the autumn (-0.5 percent). Inflation has fallen significantly. For the next two years, we expect rates of 2.3 percent (2024) and 1.8 percent (2025), after 5.9 percent in the current year. The low economic momentum is leaving its mark on the labour market. However, demographic change and the associated shortage of skilled labour are counteracting this. The government's financing deficit is expected to fall from 2.5 percent relative to GDP in 2022 to 0.7 percent in 2025. The debt level will fall from 66.1 percent to 62.4 percent in the same period.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, GDP, Economy, Business, Energy Crisis, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

97. Spring 2023 edition of Contemporary Eurasia

Author:
Levon Hovsepyan
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contemporary Eurasia
Institution:
Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
Abstract:
CONTENTS LILIT HARUTYUNYAN SUNNI AND SHIA COMMUNITIES’ TRANSFORMATIONS IN LEBANON: CHANGES IN THE BALANCE OF POWER ……………………………………………………………………………………..6 KUANG-HO YEH, GUIHUA NI CHINA-PAKISTAN SPACE COOPERATION: PATH, MOTIVATION AND THE FUTURE …………………………………..…......................................................26 ARAM GASPARYAN SOME ASPECTS OF THE ALGERIAN-RUSSIAN MILITARY COOPERATION: THE FEATURES AND PROSPECTS................................................................... .51 WU YEYAN A STUDY ON JAPANESE MINGEI’S BIRTH IN TAISHO ERA AND ALIENATION IN SHOWA ERA ……………………………………………...….64 REPORT CURRENT TRENDS IN TERRORISM: PROGRAM ON TERRORISM AND SECURITY STUDIES HELD AT THE GEORGE C. MARSHALL EUROPEAN CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES IN GERMANY………………………………………………………..…………….….76 WORKSHOP THE PARLIAMENTARY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN TURKEY OF 2023……………………………………………………………………..…………..80
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Terrorism, History, Bilateral Relations, Sectarianism, Domestic Politics, Space, Sunni, and Shiism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Japan, China, South Asia, Middle East, Asia, Germany, and Lebanon

98. Franco-German leadership in European security: Engine in reverse gear?

Author:
Iro Särkkä and Minna Ålander
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Germany and France led the European response to Russia’s first war in Ukraine following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The legacy of the failed Minsk process weighed on their ability to change course in 2022, as the required response went beyond economic sanctions and diplomatic negotiations. In both the French and the German case, there is a mismatch between self-perception and external expectations. France lacks the economic and military resources to substantiate its great-power identity, while Germany’s selective leadership is not on a par with its economic weight. As a result, neither French President Emmanuel Macron nor German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were able to provide convincing leadership in the initial stages of Russia’s second war in Ukraine in 2022. While the Franco-German reconciliation has historically constituted the core of European integration, their response to Russia’s war of aggression and its wider implications in Europe has made it clear that the Franco-German engine is struggling to provide coherent and effective wartime leadership. The two countries should not only acknowledge the enduring central role of the transatlantic link for European security, but also enhance cooperation with groups of smaller countries – and consider following their lead, too.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Leadership, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, France, and Germany

99. Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine

Author:
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
In the first 100 days of Russia’s war on Ukraine, European public opinion helped to solidify Europe’s political response. But a new poll reveals that diverging public preferences could weaken this unity. ECFR’s research shows that, while Europeans feel great solidarity with Ukraine and support sanctions against Russia, they are split about the long-term goals. They divide between a “Peace” camp (35 per cent of people) that wants the war to end as soon as possible, and a “Justice” camp that believes the more pressing goal is to punish Russia (22 per cent of people). In all countries, apart from Poland, the “Peace” camp is larger than the “Justice” camp. European citizens worry about the cost of economic sanctions and the threat of nuclear escalation. Unless something dramatically changes, they will oppose a long and protracted war. Only in Poland, Germany, Sweden, and Finland is there substantial public support for boosting military spending. Governments will need to find a new language to bridge the gap between these emerging camps, in order to strengthen European unity and avoid polarisation between and within countries. The key will be to present arms deliveries and sanctions as part of a defensive war.
Topic:
European Union, Refugees, Peace, Justice, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Poland, and Germany

100. EU – Pacific Talks: H2 – Hydrogen Hype

Author:
David Plhák
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Czechia is in many respects similar to Japan in its limited ability to rely fully on renewables. It is therefore in the interest of Czechia to increase hydrogen imports and its use in the energy mix. In order to ensure a steady supply of hydrogen the gas system operators of Czechia, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Germany launched in 2021 joined initiative to create a Central European Hydrogen corridor in an effort to create a supply of hydrogen from Ukraine. Unfortunately, given the Russian aggression on Ukraine, this project must be stopped, until Ukraine will be free of war again.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Economy, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:
Japan, Ukraine, Germany, Asia-Pacific, Slovakia, European Union, and Czechia