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251. The US and Iran: Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Bryan Gold, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
US and Iranian strategic competition is heavily drive by four key factors–the success or failure of sanctions, the im0pact of that competition on the flow of Gulf energy exports, the success or failure of efforts to limit Iran's nuclear options and the broader prospect for arms control, and the prospects for accommodation of regime change. In recent years, the key variable has been ways in which sanctions on Iran have changed US and Iranian competition since the fall of 2011, and helped lead to a tentative set of Iranian agreements with the UN's P5+1--the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, namely United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, and France, plus Germany--in November 2013.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Oil, Regime Change, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

252. Bundestag Elections 2013: Consequences for German Capitalism and European Integration

Author:
Sebastian Plóciennik
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Germany will draw a lot of attention in September 2013 when its citizens will choose a new federal parliament-Bundestag. The reason is not only the fact that the country is a big player but also that it dominates Europe on a scale not observed since the 1980s. Its economic model seems to be the most efficient in Europe at the moment and the country even has enough power to set reform agendas across the EU. Since the biggest changes in German internal and external politics can be expected if the opposition is victorious, it seems important to analyse in advance the key elements of the proposals by the major opposition force: Social-Democratic Party (SPD) and the Alliance 90/The Greens. This could help us understand what kind of change to German capitalism is advocated by these parties and how their election success could affect European integration.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

253. German hard power: Is there a there there?

Author:
Patrick Keller
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The "grand narrative" of German security policy since the end of the Cold War has oscillated between Germany's reluctance to use hard power and Germany's desire to be seen as supportive of its American and European allies. This is reflected in the varying decisions it has made during foreign military operations and in the manner in which Germany's military has conducted those operations. At the same time, the German military has undergone a series of reforms designed to modernize German forces and to make them more flexible and deployable. But a stagnant and low level of defense expenditures has made carrying out these reforms an ongoing challenge to the German military and German defense ministry. Germany has a vital interest in a stable and liberal international order and, hence, in having a military capable of helping maintain that order. As Europe's leading economic power and, increasingly, as Europe's central political actor, Germany could and should take the lead in reversing the precipitous decline in European hard power.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, International Security, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Germany

254. The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate

Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Carnegie Council
Abstract:
"Suddenly," observes Robert D. Kaplan, "we were in a world in which the dismantling of a man-made boundary in Germany had led to the assumption that all human divisions were surmountable". Following the triumph of the West in the cold war, many, including Kaplan, believed that human agency and its various constructs - including human rights, free markets, democracy, science and technology, and even humanitarian intervention - would emerge as the single most important force in shaping world events and would lead to freedom and prosperity across the globe. But the years since the fall of the Berlin Wall, Kaplan says, have revealed a much darker reality: while many societies have indeed become more democratic and prosperous, this often occurred on the heels of bloody civil wars and periods of mass murder, among other atrocities. The horror of the Rwandan genocide offers a case in point. Where did our understanding go wrong?
Political Geography:
Germany

255. Inward FDI in Germany and its policy context, 2012

Author:
Thomas Jost
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In 2011 and the first half of 2012, inward FDI (IFDI) flows to Germany continued to be relatively strong. Germany attracte market-seeking MNEs, as its economy showed remarkable economic growth despite the ongoing problems in many other countries of the Eurozone. In the second half of 2012, IFDI flows turned sharply negative, declining for the year as a whole to only US$ 7 billion, compared with US$ 49 billion in 2011. This decline reflects the difficult financial situation of many companies, including banks in the Eurozone, and could also dampen inflows in 2013. In the longer-term, Germany could profit again from rising FDI as its economy has successfully implemented reforms over the past decade, and the German Government has continued to keep its investment policy regime open.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Germany

256. Economic and Industrial Cooperation Between France and Germany: Assessment and Future Prospects

Author:
Jean-Marc Trouille
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
German Politics and Society
Institution:
German Politics and Society Journal
Abstract:
Economy and industry have traditionally been major stakes within the Franco-German relationship. This article examines French and German economic and industrial relations, and their importance for these countries' joint leadership in Europe. It investigates the level of economic interdependence and of macroeconomic convergence between the two largest Eurozone economies, industrial cooperation between French and German companies, discrepancies in their trade relations and investment flows, divergences in their respective economic and industrial policies, and the dichotomy between partnership and rivalry in their long-standing relationship. Finally, this article assesses the risk of increasing fiscal and industrial imbalance between the two economies and draws conclusions on its implications for the Franco-German entente in Europe.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

257. Leadership in Hard Times: Germany, France, and the Management of the Eurozone Crisis

Author:
Joachim Schild
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
German Politics and Society
Institution:
German Politics and Society Journal
Abstract:
France and Germany played a highly visible leadership role during the management of the Euro crisis and the efforts to design a reform governance framework for the Euro area. This article provides a conceptualization of this bilateral leadership, which is then applied to trace the process of Franco-German leadership during the ongoing crisis of the Euro area. Franco-German leadership grew ever more important as the crisis deepened. After the French presidential election of 2012, however, the divergences between the two core states of the Euro area deepened and made the exercise of joint leadership more difficult to achieve. I consider this leadership role to be based on a compromise by proxy logic in which France and Germany, starting from divergent positions, strike bilateral compromises acceptable to other member states that feel their own interests are represented by either France or Germany. Their common capacity to find suitable remedies to cope with crisis, however, is not beyond doubt. The Franco-German approach followed an additive logic, combining the temporary and permanent financial support schemes-a French preference-with a concomitant strengthening of fiscal rules advocated by Germany. In the end, the two governments did not develop a common comprehensive strategy based on a shared conceptual framework.
Political Geography:
France and Germany

258. The Élysée Treaty and European Integration Theory

Author:
Yannis Karagiannis
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
German Politics and Society
Institution:
German Politics and Society Journal
Abstract:
According to neoliberal institutionalism, states create international institutions to limit information asymmetries, monitor compliance, and ensure the credibility of commitments to agreed-upon policies-in short, to minimize transaction costs. Although this view can help explain the delegation of powers to supranational bodies such as the European Commission, it cannot account for the signature of the Élysée Treaty between France and Germany in January 1963, which reversed the logic of supranational delegation. Understanding the causes and the consequences of this apparently anomalous event is therefore a major challenge facing scholars of international organizations, European integration, and German foreign policy alike. To start addressing the issue, this article develops an explanation based on incomplete contracts theory. In a nutshell, I argue that the Élysée Treaty aimed at securing the equal treatment of French and German interests in the process of European integration, thereby allowing the deepening of European integration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

259. The Élysée Treaty in the Context of Franco-German Socio-cultural Relations

Author:
Corine Defrance
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
German Politics and Society
Institution:
German Politics and Society Journal
Abstract:
Even though the terms “culture“ and “reconciliation“ are absent in the Élysée Treaty, this article looks at forms of cooperation that the Treaty nevertheless generated in the fields of education and youth, as well as foreign affairs and defense. In fact, the Treaty was quite important for the development of cultural and socio-cultural relations between France and Germany and the interactions between states and civil societies. Yet, contrary to the political rhetoric often heard, the Élysée Treaty was not the “year zero“ of Franco-German rapprochement. The Treaty also has to be evaluated in terms of the new impetus it provided for societal initiatives, as well as its limits in the cultural field. The article also assesses recent debates among intellectuals in the two countries: Do the two nations still have something to share at the cultural level or have they distanced themselves from each other? Has the Élysée Treaty really exhausted its integrative capacities regarding socio-cultural matters? In sum, the Treaty has become an important framework for Franco-German socio-cultural cooperation, even if “culture“ was not its main aim, and governments are far from having been the main actors in this field. But, thanks to the joint process of consultation and institutionalization, experiments with bilateral forms of exchanges and cooperation often occurred before being re-applied to a larger framework.
Political Geography:
France and Germany

260. Sarkozy and Merkel: The Undeniable Relevance of the Franco-German Bilateral Relationship in Europe

Author:
Francesca Vassallo
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
German Politics and Society
Institution:
German Politics and Society Journal
Abstract:
In 2013 France and Germany will celebrate the fiftieth anniversary of the Élysée Treaty, signed by the two countries to create a close collaboration in the interest of peace and prosperity. Over the course of five decades, different couples of French Presidents and German Chancellors have dealt with the Paris-Berlin relationship in slightly different ways, some with more success than others. Despite the many changes in the European context and to the balance in the alliance between France and Germany, the initial motivation and meaning of the treaty remains astonishingly valid today, especially in light of its positive contribution to European integration. Even with many possible factors weakening the two countries' core relations, the Franco-German duo retains its historically dominant influence in successful European governance, as the recent Merkozy situation showed.
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, and Berlin