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31. Perspectives for Italy-Germany Energy Cooperation amid Energy Security and Transition

Author:
Alessio Sangiorgio and Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy and Germany share important similarities in their energy sectors, facing multiple challenges, first and foremost the impact of the energy crisis and its effect on transition efforts. Similarly, changing political contexts at the national and European levels creates new obstacles for climate ambitions, raising the need for bilateral dialogue and common solutions. The two countries’ economies are also closely interconnected, increasing the need for joint action on industrial decarbonisation and cross-border interconnections. A coordinated response in tackling the challenges of energy security, competitiveness and sustainability is needed and may yield positive results for both countries and the European Union.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Italy

32. US-Germany Missile Agreement: Deterrence or Escalation?

Author:
Polina Sinovets
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This October was marked by a statement by the Head of the German Foreign Service Intelligence, Bruno Kahl, who claimed that by the end of this decade at the latest, Russian troops could “carry out an attack” against NATO.[1] The defence chief could hardly be accused of hyperbole. His comments took place at the time of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s growing nuclear blackmail of the West and regular threats to use some measures[2] against any NATO country whose military deployments might potentially affect Russian missiles’ striking capabilities. Against this backdrop and with the new US administration coming to power in 2025 under the slogan of turning all its attention to China, Europe will have to care much more about its defence and security than before 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed the weak spots of the European NATO pillar in terms of arms production, military budgeting and general preparedness for a large-scale war in European territory, which turns out to be critical for the security of the continent.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Germany, and United States of America

33. Can Price Controls Be Optimal? The Economics of the Energy Shock in Germany

Author:
Tom Krebs and Isabella Weber
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
In the wake of the global energy crisis, many European countries used energy price controls to fight inflation and to stabilize the economy. Despite its wide adoption, many economists remained skeptical. In this paper, we argue that price controls should be part of the policy toolbox to respond to shocks to systemically important sectors because not using them can have large economic and political costs. We put forward our arguments in two steps. In a first step, we analyze the impact on the German economy and society of the global energy crisis that followed Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022. Our analysis shows that energy shocks matter. Specifically, the one-year GDP loss of the energy crisis 2022 amounts to 4 percent and is of a comparable magnitude to the short-run output losses during the COVID-19 crisis 2020 and the global financial crisis 2008. In addition, during the energy crisis 2022 inflation rates rose dramatically and real wages dropped more than in any other year in post-war Germany. There are also clear signs that the crisis is causing severe long-term economic damage (hysteresis effects). At the beginning of 2024, GDP is 7 percent and real wages are 10 percent below their pre-COVID-19 trend. We argue that the German government handled the immediate response to the energy shock well, but subsequently waited too long to introduce an energy price brake in 2022. This failure to act decisively in response to heightened economic insecurity coincided with a strong rise of the approval rates of the far-right AfD in the summer of 2022. We also show that the German energy price brake was an effective price stabilization policy for households, but did not protect the industrial base appropriately making it more likely that the German economy will continue to stagnate. In a final step, we turn to the use of price controls as an optimal policy response to an energy shock within a general equilibrium framework. We develop a simple production model with an energy sector and shows that price controls are socially optimal whenever selffulfilling expectations generate endogenous price uncertainty in the wake of an energy shock. We also link our analysis to the so-called sunspot literature that was developed in the 1980s as a response to the rational-expectations revolution in macroeconomics. Finally, we use our theoretical analysis to shed some light on the economic policy debate and the resistance of German mainstream economists to the introduction of energy price controls in 2022.
Topic:
Economics, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Price Control, Energy, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

34. Health Care for Women: How the U.S. Compares Internationally

Author:
Munira Z. Gunja, Relebohile Masitha, and Laurie Zephyrin
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
Recently released federal data once again show the United States with by far the highest rate of maternal deaths of any high-income nation, despite a decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.1 Racial disparities are also extreme: Black women in the U.S. are nearly three times more likely to die from pregnancy-related complications than white women are. But maternal deaths and complications may be an indicator of the nation’s wider failures with respect to women’s health and health care. Compared to women in other high-income countries, American women have long had worse access to the health care they need. While the U.S. spends more on health care than other countries do, surveys regularly find that Americans avoid seeking care because of costs at the highest rates, even as the U.S. continues to lead in the prevalence of chronic disease.2 At the same time, limited access to primary care and inadequate coordination of health services are likely factors in the nation’s poor performance when it comes to the prevention, diagnosis, and management of diseases.3 In this brief, we compare selected measures of health care access and outcomes for women in high-income countries. We drew upon data from four sources: the Commonwealth Fund’s 2023 International Health Policy Survey of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which allowed us to analyze responses by race and ethnicity;4 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Vital Statistics System; the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease. The latter two data sets permitted us to show results on selected measures for five additional countries — Chile, Japan, Korea, Norway, and Sweden. (See “How We Conducted This Survey” for more details.)
Topic:
Women, Public Health, Healthcare System, and Life Expectancy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Australia, and United States of America

35. Boosting Childhood Vaccination Rates Post-Pandemic: Lessons from Five Countries

Author:
Irene Papanicolas, Robert A. Berenson, and Laura Skopec
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
Issue: Childhood vaccination rates fell worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, reductions in childhood vaccination were not universal, which may be related to differences in vaccine eligibility, vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine administration programs across countries. Goals: Explore how childhood vaccination rates changed during the COVID-19 pandemic in five high-income countries with varying approaches to vaccine policy. Methods: Surveys of in-country experts and analysis of secondary data sources in Australia, Germany, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Key Findings and Conclusion: While vaccination rates fell worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic, the high-income countries in our study maintained high childhood vaccination rates for polio and measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) near or above the herd immunity threshold (80% for polio and 95% for measles). Australia and Singapore, which have the strictest vaccine requirements, boasted the highest polio vaccination rates in both 2018 and 2021. No countries require the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination nationwide, but Australia, Singapore, and the U.K. have school-based HPV vaccination programs and high vaccination rates. Strong vaccine requirements, combined with school-based immunization or catch-up programs, may help boost childhood vaccination rates where they lagged during the pandemic.
Topic:
Children, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Singapore, and United States of America

36. Finger on the Pulse: The State of Primary Care in the U.S. and Nine Other Countries

Author:
Evan D. Gumas, Corinne Lewis, Celli Horstman, and Munira Z. Gunja
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
For many people, primary care is their first point of contact with the health system, and decades of evidence shows it is critical for population health, health equity, and the overall efficiency of health care systems.1 Primary care is also uniquely positioned to screen for social needs and provide integrated behavioral health services.2 Ensuring people have access to high-quality, comprehensive primary care is vital to good health outcomes and positive experiences with the health system at large. Despite the importance of primary care, health systems around the world are facing challenges at the patient and provider level. Many countries struggle to ensure access to care, or first contact; continuity of care; comprehensiveness of care; and coordination of care. These four core components of high-quality primary care are essential to better overall health outcomes.3 Factors like workforce shortages, physician burnout, and dwindling access for patients, driven in part by underinvestment and growing administrative burdens, pose significant barriers to care.4 To better understand how patient care can be improved in a changing primary care landscape, this brief compares the state of primary care in the United States with nine other high-income nations. It updates an earlier Commonwealth Fund study comparing primary care performance in the U.S. with nine peer countries: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Our data come from the Commonwealth Fund’s 2022 International Health Policy Survey of Primary Care Physicians and the 2023 International Health Policy Survey of adults age 18 and older. The 2022 and 2023 surveys asked different questions of the participating physicians and responding adults, so this edition includes new measures on access to telehealth, preparedness to treat behavioral health conditions, and care coordination. For more details on our methods, see “How We Conducted This Study.”
Topic:
Equity, Primary Care, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Australia, Switzerland, North America, Sweden, Netherlands, New Zealand, and United States of America

37. Insights into the U.S. Maternal Mortality Crisis: An International Comparison

Author:
Munira Z. Gunja, Evan D. Gumas, Relebohile Masitha, and Laurie Zephyrin
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
The United States continues to have the highest rate of maternal deaths of any high-income nation, despite a decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. And within the U.S., the rate is by far the highest for Black women. Most of these deaths — over 80 percent — are likely preventable.1 With policies and systems in place to support women during the perinatal period, several high-income countries report virtually no maternal deaths. As policymakers and health care delivery system leaders in the U.S. seek ways to end the nation’s maternal mortality crisis, these countries may offer viable solutions. This brief updates an earlier Commonwealth Fund study of differences in maternal mortality, maternal care workforce composition, and access to postpartum care and social protections between the U.S. and other high-income countries: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.2 In this edition, we have also included data on Chile, Japan, and Korea — all high-income countries with universal health care systems. For our analysis, we used the most recently available data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), of which the U.S. is a member. Where country-specific data are more than five years old, we note whether more recent published data from other sources are available for that country. Readers should be aware that because the methods we used to derive updated numbers from other sources may be different from methods the OECD uses, data points may not be comparable to the U.S. rates. For complete details on our methods, see “How We Conducted This Study.”
Topic:
Development, Inequality, Public Health, and Maternal Mortality
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Canada, Norway, France, Germany, Australia, Switzerland, North America, Sweden, Netherlands, New Zealand, and United States of America

38. Anti-corruption measures in German local government using the example of the city of Bremen

Author:
Piotr Zariczny
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Germany, as one of the leading European countries, is also engaged in comprehensive anti-corruption efforts. It is worth taking a look at anti-corruption practices in German local government, and particularly focusing on the case of the city of Bremen. German local government is characterized by a high degree of autonomy, which gives local authorities a great deal of freedom in managing their affairs. However, with this autonomy comes challenges in preventing and combating corruption. The city of Bremen, as one of the 16 states of the Federal Republic of Germany, represents a compelling research case because of its approach to fighting corruption. Understood as a free Hanseatic city (Freie Hansestadt Bremen) and a federal state (Bundesland), the city of Bremen exhibits advanced anti-corruption structures. Central to this is the Anti-Corruption Commission, which focuses on monitoring and combating all forms of corruption at the local level. This commission works in close cooperation with police authorities and internal control bodies. Bremen is taking proactive measures to prevent corruption. One of the key instruments is training programs aimed at local government employees, which cover public service ethics, accountability, and rules of conduct. In addition, there is a clear and transparent code of conduct for local government employees that specifies expected ethical standards. The City of Bremen recognizes the important role of civil society in combating corruption. These efforts focus on working with NGOs, conducting educational campaigns, and establishing communication channels for citizens to report cases of corruption. Public trust in local government institutions is therefore crucial, which confirms the introduced effectiveness of the anti-corruption measures. The case of the city of Bremen shows that the fight against corruption in German local government requires an integrated approach, combining proactive measures, cooperation with civil society and monitoring structures.
Topic:
Corruption, Education, Bilateral Relations, and Local Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Germany

39. CTC Sentinel: January 2024 Issue

Author:
Haroun Rahimi, Andrew Watkins, Gabriel Weimann, Alexander T. Pack, and Rachel Sulciner
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the feature article, Haroun Rahimi and Andrew Watkins assess Taliban rule two and a half years into their renewed control of Afghanistan. They write: “Since their 2021 takeover, the Taliban have consolidated control over an impoverished and austere postwar Afghanistan. Since their victory, the Taliban’s emir has reasserted his status as a ‘supreme leader’ and oriented domestic policy in favor of highly conservative constituencies—which has revealed deep differences among their leadership of visions for the future of the Afghan state and society and how authority is divided among themselves. Yet, the Taliban have persistently prioritized the cohesion of their movement and governing apparatus. This trajectory has earned condemnation from Western states and prompted caution in the entire world’s engagement, which has in turn fueled Taliban motivations to reject foreign demands. After two and a half years of rule, the Taliban’s domestic agenda has become intertwined with their foreign relations impasse.” Gabriel Weimann, Alexander Pack, Rachel Sulciner, Joelle Scheinin, Gal Rapaport, and David Diaz write that “with the arrival and rapid adoption of sophisticated deep-learning models such as ChatGPT, there is growing concern that terrorists and violent extremists could use these tools to enhance their operations online and in the real world. Large language models have the potential to enable terrorists to learn, plan, and propagate their activities with greater efficiency, accuracy, and impact than ever before.” The authors offer “an early exploration of how these large language models could be exploited by terrorists or other violent extremists … to support their efforts in training, conducting operational planning, and developing propaganda.” Georgia Gilroy decodes al-Shabaab’s social media strategy, outlining the “controlled, adaptive, and coordinated approach the terrorist group takes to its online behavior.” She writes that the group’s “continued resilience, even in the face of mounting counterinsurgency efforts, is underpinned by its sophisticated communications architecture.” Christian Jokinen assesses whether left-wing terrorism is making a comeback in Germany in a case study of the violent left-wing Engel – Guntermann network. He writes that “the recent concerning trend among German left-wing extremists is toward greater violence and transnationalism.”
Topic:
Terrorism, Taliban, Violent Extremism, Artificial Intelligence, Leftist Politics, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, South America, Germany, and Global Focus

40. Long-term care policies in practice: a European perspective

Author:
Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, David Pinkus, and Nina Ruer
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This paper offers a comprehensive study of the long-term care (LTC) systems in Germany, France, Slovenia, Italy and Denmark. In many EU countries, the demand for LTC services already exceeds supply. Without major reforms, this ‘care gap’ is likely to widen further because of population ageing. This paper highlights a number of recent reforms to reduce this care gap by affecting the demand for and supply of long-term care services. We find that most measures to increase the supply of formal LTC services focus on workforce attractiveness. By examining recent policy efforts and reforms, we aim to understand in which direction LTC policy is going, and to showcase measures to prepare for the future increase in demand for care.
Topic:
Health, Public Policy, Macroeconomics, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, and Slovenia