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81. Recent Trends in Security and Stability in the South Caucasus

Author:
Richard Giragosian and Sergey Minasyan
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
After twenty years of independence, the three counties of the South Caucasus-Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia-continue to struggle with a daunting set of challenges. In light of several unresolved conflicts and profound deficiencies in efforts directed at democratic and economic reform, the South Caucasus continues to be a "region at risk." As if this rather bleak landscape was not enough, three more recent trends have emerged to further threaten the region's security and stability. The first trend, and one that is likely to have the most profound effects over the long term, is evident in a subtle shift in the already delicate balance of power in the region, driven largely by a steady surge in Azerbaijani defense spending and exacerbated by a lack of progress in the mediation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Since the 1994 ceasefire that resulted in the suspension of hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh (but that did not definitively end them), this unresolved or "frozen" conflict has been subject to an international mediation effort conducted by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) so-called Minsk Group. This tripartite body co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States seeks to engage and prod the parties to the conflict toward a negotiated resolution of the conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Caucasus, France, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

82. Ex oleo bellare? The Impact of Oil on the Outbreak of Militarized Interstate Disputes

Author:
Tim Wegenast and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
According to conventional wisdom, strategic natural resources like oil are harmful to international peace. Nonetheless, there is little empirical quantitative work on the link between resource abundance and interstate conflicts. Analyzing the impact of oil on militarized interstate disputes on a monadic level of analysis, this paper shows that oil in fact influences the conflict potential between countries. Results of logistic regressions suggest that a high absolute oil production is associated with an increased risk of dispute initiation. Per capita oil production, in contrast, does not seem to influence a country's propensity to start militarized conflicts. We also find that while very small oil-rich countries are more frequently the object of military actions, large oil producers seem to be generally spared from foreign attacks. We conclude that specific causal mechanisms such as an increased military capacity or the indulgence of the international community (rather than domestic political conditions inherent to the rentier state) might be particularly useful to explain our findings.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Oil, War, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia and Georgia

83. Getting cold in the Caucasus: Can the EU prevent the freezing of the Georgian-Russian conflict?

Author:
Teemu Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since the stabilization of the Georgian-Russian conflict, no further progress has been achieved and the conflict is in danger of freezing again. Leaders on both sides are taking full advantage of the tension that exists between them, while the people living on the boundary line are paying a heavy price because of the conflict. The EU has assumed considerable responsibility for the resolution of the conflict, but due to insufficient coordination at the operational level and a lack of coherent political support, it has been increasingly ignored by both parties. The Georgian-Russian conflict offers a great window of opportunity for the EU to define its overall strategy for the conflict management it so desperately needs.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Georgia

84. 'War in countries we are not at war with': The 'war on terror' on the periphery from Bush to Obama

Author:
Maria Ryan
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Politics
Institution:
Palgrave Macmillan
Abstract:
This article examines the origins of the 'Global War on Terror' (GWoT) in peripheral locations; in other words, in countries and regions beyond Iraq and beyond Afghanistan. Although those two countries have remained the 'core' regions of the GWoT, the Bush administration also undertook many other military interventions in countries and regions in ostensibly peripheral locations under the auspices of the 'war on terror'; operations which it referred to in its 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review as 'war in countries we are not at war with'. These include operations in the Horn of Africa, Georgia and the Caspian region, the Philippines and the countries across the Sahara region including Mali, Niger, Chad and Mauritania. This article examines these peripheral theatres in the GWoT and argues that, by its second term, the Bush administration had moved beyond a state-based worldview vis-à-vis terrorism and had truly come to understand it as a transnational problem; a protean network that should be tackled through using Special Operations Forces and unconventional warfare to wage 'war in countries we are not at war with'. The article also considers the extent to which these operations on the 'periphery' were expedient in other ways that often transcended the war on terror because they coincided with the existence of long-standing or newly identified US strategic interests. Finally, the article considers the Obama administration's continuation – and in some cases escalation – of many of the Bush administration's operations in peripheral regions, even as Obama looks to wind down the war in Iraq.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Iraq, and Georgia

85. Georgia-Russia: Learn to Live Like Neighbours

Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Three years after their August 2008 war over the South Ossetia region, tension is growing again between Russia and Georgia, and talks are needed to restore stability and create positive momentum in a situation that is fragile and potentially explosive. Diplomatic relations are suspended, and the two have only started limited negotiations, with Swiss mediation, on Russia's World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership. Yet, they share interests in improving regional security, trade and transport and should start discussions on these rather than continuing to exchange hostile rhetoric that only makes renewed dialogue more difficult.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and Georgia

86. South Caucasus: What Prospects after Twenty Years of "Managed Instability"?

Author:
Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Twenty years after the fall of the Soviet Union and the independence of the three Caucasian Republics of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, the region remains characterized by a state of “managed instability” due to the absence of solutions to the conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan (over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh) and between Georgia and Russia (over territorial issues and political differences). Negotiation mechanisms aimed at solving these issues exist (since 1992 for Nagorno-Karabakh, and since 1991 for Georgia), but they do not appear to produce meaningful results, raising questions on the purpose of these mechanisms and the future of the region beyond the lasting status quo. A movement toward deeper instability in the region, which cannot be excluded, would pose a direct security threat to Europe, as well as to Russia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Cold War, Territorial Disputes, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

87. The United States Should Establish Permanent Normal Trade Relations with Russia

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
After 18 years, Russia is finally on the verge of acceding to the World Trade Organization (WTO). No country has struggled for so long to become a member of this important organization. The last impediment was removed on November 9, when Russia and Georgia concluded an agreement on monitoring trade flows across their disputed border. The WTO Working Party, which oversaw the negotiations, then approved Russian accession on November 10, clearing the way for formal membership to be adopted at the WTO ministerial conference to be held December 15–17, 2011 (WTO 2011).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Georgia

88. The Politics of International Media Rankings

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
Participants: Lee Becker (Professor and Director, James. M. Cox Jr. Center for International Mass Communication Training and Research, University of Georgia), Karin Karlekar (Senior Researcher and Managing Editor, Freedom of the Press Index, Freedom House), Anne Nelson (Adjunct Associate Professor, Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs and former Executive Director, Committee to Protect Journalists) This event is part of the "Human Rights in the Post-Communist World: Strategies and Outcomes " series (Harriman Core Project 2010-2011).
Topic:
Democratization, Science and Technology, International Affairs, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
Georgia

89. Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale et d'Eurasie 2011 (Volume 2)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia Dashboard 2011 (Volume 2)
Topic:
Markets, Political Economy, Politics, Governance, Finance, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Eastern Europe, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Central Europe, and Belarus

90. Strengthening Oversight of the Security Sector in Georgia: an Agenda

Author:
Erik Sportel (ed) and Vasili Tchkoidze (ed)
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
Since the 2003 Rose Revolution, Georgia has undertaken serious reforms, moving the country towards becoming a democracy anda market economy. Instead of proceeding at a steady pace, Georgia haschosen to take an accelerated path to reform. Since coming to office,the Saakashvili administration has underlined its ambition to bring Georgia into Euro-Atlantic structures. After an energetic start, Georgia ran into difficulties in late 2007 and 2008. During this period, the democratic credentials of the Saakashvili government were put to the test for the first time.The government was faced with massive public demonstrations, to which it responded in a heavy-handed fashion. The security forces attacked protesters, and the government declared a state of emergency, blaming the unrest on Russia. Many domestic and foreign observers feared that Georgia was abandoning the road to democracy. However, the state of emergency was soon lifted, and the government called an early presidential election. International observers judged the election to be largely democratic, despite some irregularities, but opposition forces claimed that the president's results had been boosted by fraud. Mr Saakashvili won an absolute majority in the first round of polling. The subsequent parliamentary elections in the spring of 2008 gave the ruling United National Movement party a landslide victory. With 119 out of 150 seats, theparty currently holds a two-thirds majority in parliament. The two major opposition parties (winning 17 and six seats respectively) refused to take their seatsin parliament.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Civil Society, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Georgia