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162. Georgia: The Risks of Winter - Europe Briefing N°51
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The situation in and around Georgia's conflict areas remains unstable. Violent incidents are continuing. Shots were fired near a convoy carrying the Georgian and Polish presidents on 23 November. European Union (EU) monitors are being denied access to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Unambitious multi-party negotiations focusing on security and internally displaced person (IDP) return have gotten off to a slow start in Geneva. For the moment, however, domestic politics are the capital's main preoccupation. President Mikheil Saakash¬vili's position is at least temporarily secure, but his administration is likely to be severely tested politically and economically in the winter and spring months ahead. The August 2008 war with Russia and the global financial crisis have seriously undermined Georgia's economy and the foreign investment climate. Social discontent could rise as economic conditions worsen unless the government pushes forward with economic and political change.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Georgia
163. Post-Mortem on Europe's First War of the 21st Century
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The small war between Georgia and Russia from 8 to 22 August 2008 has shattered any remaining illusions over the frontiers of the normative map of Europe. All the primary parties have to be criticised: Russia for setting a trap for Saakashvili to fall into, the Georgian leadership for its astounding military and political blunder in falling into it, and the United States for having failed to restrain its protégé. The first consequence is that Georgia has paid the price of Saakashvili's folly, with the definitive loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The second consequence is triggered by Russia's continued occupation of strategic points in Georgia-proper, which means not peacekeeping but threatened strangulation of the Georgian economy and its role in the transit of oil and gas from the Caspian to the West. It also means that business as usual has become impossible, as already announced between NATO and Russia, and with more important decisions pending in both the EU and US. The third consequence is that the EU should immediately step up its policies to integrate Ukraine, with real perspectives of membership subject to the standard criteria. The fourth unknown consequence is how far this deteriorating process between Russia and the West will go. Russia may pretend, with its petro-power and wealth, to be immune from any actions by the West, but beyond the short-term it is vulnerable. Whatever these unknowns, already Russia has crossed a red line with its strategic occupation of Georgia-proper, rather than the option just to push Georgia out of South Ossetia. This latter option would have met with widespread understanding internationally. But with its chosen option Russia has placed itself in another category, which is a throwback to earlier times, and totally incompatible with the political and moral principles of modern Europe.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, War, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Eastern Europe, and Georgia
164. Atlanta Declaration and Plan of Action for the Advancement of the Right of Access to Information
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- We, over 125 members of the global access to information community from 40 countries, representing governments, civil society organizations, international bodies and financial institutions, donor agencies and foundations, private sector companies, media outlets and scholars, gathered in Atlanta, Georgia from February 27-29, 2008, under the auspices of the Carter Center and hereby adopt the following Declaration and Plan of Action to advance the passage, implementation, enforcement, and exercise of the right of access to information:
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Intelligence, Treaties and Agreements, and Intellectual Property/Copyright
- Political Geography:
- Georgia
165. Editor's Corner
- Author:
- Ilan Berman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Journal of International Security Affairs
- Institution:
- Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
- Abstract:
- Here in Washington, the “silly season” is well and truly upon us. Observing the frenetic campaign cycle, with its endless media appearances, speeches and jostling for political position, it's easy to understand why conventional wisdom has it that no serious policy gets done in an election year. And yet, foreign policy remains front and center on the national agenda. As of this writing, at least one crisis, the conflict between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia, has broken into the open, while another—that of Iran's nuclear ambitions—waits in the wings.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Washington, Georgia, and South Ossetia
166. Editor's Note
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The closure case against the ruling AK Party pending before the constitutional court occupied the center stage of Turkish politics throughout the summer. After months of speculation on the fate of the party, the court finally reached a verdict in late July, deciding not to close down the AK Party, and averting what had otherwise promised to be an unprecedented level of political uncertainty, social and economic turmoil, and potential chaos. With the closure case now behind it, the AK Party is expected to be more restrained, and to act responsibly – as it did during the proceedings of the case – while building up its democratic and secular credentials through a reform policy in keeping with the EU accession process. For some time, the ruling AK Party had been under pressure for neglecting, if not abandoning, the EU membership process. In response to critics the government may refocus its energy on the issues that have stalled Turkey's accession.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Georgia
167. The Struggle for a Civilised Wider European Order
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Europe's two crises – the Georgia-Russia war of August and the ongoing global financial and economic crisis – point to huge challenges for the organisation and policies of the European Union. The present paper concentrates on the risks that the crises represent for one of the EU's prim e objective, to achieve a civilized wider European order. At least the current episodes show that with leadership the EU can act fast in both diplomacy and finance. But the next question is how to follow through, beyond a passing moment of an effective six-month presidency of the EU. This is the subject of the present note, which advocates a comprehensive upgrading of the EU's policies in the wider European area, and contributes ideas for the revision of the European Security Strategy currently being prepared. The aim would be to strengthen EU policies towards South-East Europe, East Europe and Central Asia, and defuse the current confrontation between a normative Europe and an aggressive Russian realpolitik; better still Russia might, after reflecting on what the two crises mean for its fundamental interests, conclude that the time had come for a more genuinely cooperative understanding with the EU.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Asia, and Georgia
168. China-Russia Relations
- Author:
- Yu Bin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The third quarter of 2008 was quite eventful for Russia and China as well as their bilateral relationship. The 29th Summer Olympics in Beijing opened and concluded with extravaganza and a record 51 gold medals for China. Shortly before the opening ceremony on Aug. 8, Georgia's attacks against South Ossetia – a separatist region of Georgia – led to Russia's massive military response, a five-day war, and Russia's recognition of their independence. Thus, the August guns and games brought the two strategic partners back to the world stage. One consequence of the Georgian-Russian war is that China's “neutrality” is widely seen as a crisis in China's strategic partnership with Russia.
- Topic:
- Security and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Beijing, and Georgia
169. Europe's Unrecognised Neighbours: The EU in Abkhazia and South Ossetia
- Author:
- Nicu Popescu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The EU can do little to achieve its policy objectives in its Eastern neighbourhood without facing the issue of secessionist conflicts. This paper deals with EU policy towards Georgia and the secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It discusses the reasons for and constraints on EU policies, their effects and perception in the secessionist entities. The paper concludes with recommendations on how the EU can contribute to conflict resolution in Georgia through a greater inclusion of the conflict regions into the European Neighbourhood Policy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia
170. Will Georgia Go North? On Democracy and Regional Security in the Caucasus
- Author:
- Lasha Tchantouridze
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The results of the January 5 2008 presidential elections in Georgia will have a long-lasting effect on this emerging democracy, as well as its foreign policy orientation, and on overall stability in the Caucasus. The winner, Mikheil Saakashvili, widely seen as a pro-American and pro-Western politician very keen on the issues of joining NATO and the EU, has in fact done nothing during his first four years in power to secure his country's political independence from Russia or to weaken Moscow's position in the Caucasus. If Saakashvilis's deeds, rather than his words, are examined more carefully, he appears to be more pro-Russian in his foreign orientation rather than pro-Western. It is not entirely unlikely that President Putin of Russia and his Georgian counterpart Saakashvili are staging the hate game between themselves for the benefit of Western observers and their respective domestic audiences. Saakashvili has just managed to secure his second term in office on the anti-Russian ticket, with all the legal and illegal means at his disposal. This will keep his political opposition, whatever is left of the independent news media, and the majority of Georgians actively opposed to him for years to come. If pressured hard by the West, Saakashvili may be forced to make a turn in his foreign policy orientation, and openly choose Moscow as his political overlord. Such a turn of events would have long reaching consequences for the overall stability and security of the Caucasus, as well as for extra-regional links and energy cooperation.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- America, Caucasus, Moscow, and Georgia