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72. Gaza: The Next Israeli-Palestinian War?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Will the next Middle East conflagration involve Israelis and Palestinians? After the serious escalation of the past week in which eight Gazans, including children, were killed in a single day, and the 23 March 2011 bombing in Jerusalem, that took the life of one and wounded dozens, there is real reason to worry. The sharp deterioration on this front is not directly related, nor is it in any way similar to the events that have engulfed the Middle East and North Africa. But the overall context of instability and uncertainty undoubtedly has made a volatile situation even more so. Israelis' anxiety is rising and with it the fear that outside parties might seek to provoke hostilities to divert attention from domestic problems and shift the focus back to Israel. Hamas has been emboldened by regional events and is therefore less likely to back down from a challenge. The combination, as recent days have shown, has proven combustible.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Jerusalem, Gaza, Arab Countries, and North Africa
73. Radical Islam in Gaza
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The recent Israel-Hamas escalation returns a spotlight to Gaza and the Islamist movement's relationship with more militant organisations. Gaza arouses multiple concerns: does Hamas seeks to impose religious law; has its purported Islamisation stimulated growth of Salafi-Jihadi groups; and will al-Qaeda offshoots find a foothold there? Hamas faces competition from more radical Islamist groups, though their numbers are few, organisation poor, achievements against Israel so far minor and chances of threatening Gaza's government slight. The significance of Gaza's Salafi-Jihadis is less military capability than constraints they impose on Hamas: they are an ideological challenge; they appeal to members of its military wing, a powerful constituency; through attacks within and from Gaza, they threaten security; by criticising Hamas for not fighting Israel or implementing Sharia, they exert pressure for more militancy and Islamisation. The policy of isolating Gaza and ignoring Hamas exacerbates this problem. As the international community seeks new ways to address political Islam in the Arab upheaval's wake, Gaza is not the worst place to start.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza
74. The Reform of Israeli Checkpoints: Outsourcing, Commodification, and Redeployment of the State (La réforme des checkpoints israéliens : externalisation, marchandisation et redéploiement de l'Etat)
- Author:
- Shira Havkin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Since 2006 the checkpoints along the borders of the West Bank and the Gaza strip have been reorganized and equipped with a new technological platform. They are now managed by private security firms. The instigators of these reforms speak of the "civilianization" of the checkpoints and justify their program on economic, organizational and humanitarian grounds. This detailed study of the concrete means by which the management of the Israeli checkpoints has been outsourced and commodified enables one to establish links between the evolution of Israeli society in terms of the relationship between the State, the market and society and the actual changes in the operation of the occupation. It would appear that this is not a case of the State receding in the face of market forces in a zero sum game. Rather it is the redeployment in a neoliberal context of the State in which it has adopted the uniquely Israeli layering of the public and the private, the national and the international, the State and civil society.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Human Rights, Science and Technology, Occupation, Neoliberalism, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank
75. Al-Qaeda in the West Bank and Gaza
- Author:
- Bruce Riedel and Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Palestinian terrorist groups have long operated out of the West Bank and Gaza. What is new is that some radicalized Palestinians are choosing to engage in violence not through established domestic groups such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, but rather through groups that aspire to be part of al-Qaeda's global jihad. While most Palestinian terrorist organizations are nationalist -- or, in the case of Hamas, Islamist-nationalist -- and limit their operations to the Israeli-Palestinian front, the Salafi-Jihadi ideology professed by these new groups offers a broader agenda, one based not on a particular nationality but instead on the Muslim umma (nation).
- Topic:
- Islam and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Gaza
76. Dubai: On the Front Line of U.S. Iran Policy
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Willingly or not, Dubai has been thrust onto the front line of diplomacy aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions and terrorism sponsorship. The January 20, 2010, assassination of Hamas gunrunner Mahmoud al-Mabhouh on its soil was a reminder of the emirate's longstanding trade and commercial links with Iran -- he was reportedly there to purchase Iranian rockets for Hamas units in Gaza. For years, U.S. authorities have been pressuring Dubai for more restrictions on Iranian trade passing through its ports, as well as increased controls on Iranians traveling to and living in the emirate. The ongoing Mabhouh investigation has shown that, given the requisite political will, Dubai has excellent surveillance capabilities and other attributes that could be used against Iran.
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Gaza, and Dubai
77. How to Handle Hamas: The Perils of Ignoring Gaza's Leadership
- Author:
- Daniel Byman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
78. The Polarization of the Palestinian Political Field
- Author:
- Jamil Hilal
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- Arguing that the polarization of the Palestinian political field did not start with Hamas's takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2007, the author analyzes the factors that have eroded the cohesiveness and vitality of the Palestinian polity, namely, the paralysis of Palestinian political institutions, territorial and social fragmentation, and egregious outside interference. In this context, and in the absence of an internal Palestinian debate about the objectives of holding elections under occupation, the author shows that the timing and circumstances of the 2006 legislative elections were bound to precipitate the current state of disarray. Finally, he considers the way forward, highlighting the potential of public pressure in promoting national reconciliation. NO ONE WOULD QUESTION today the utter disarray of the Palestinian political field [i], where two separate entities governed by bitterly rival factions are ensconced in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, one under Israeli occupation, the other under a suffocating Israeli siege. Each of the two governments, one primarily secular (controlled by Fatah), the other “Islamist” (controlled by Hamas), has its own security forces and, to the extent possible, bans the activities of members of the rival faction within “its” territory (if it does not arrest or imprison them). Both political “entities” are heavily dependent on external funding (from different donors) and are allied to different regional powers overtly or covertly opposed to one another. As time passes, the two entities grow further and further apart, threatening a repetition in some form of the Pakistan-Bangladesh experience. This state of polarization did not begin in June 2007 when Hamas installed itself as the dominant political, military, and administrative power in the Gaza Strip while Fatah took steps to tighten its control over the West Bank. Rather, these events deepened trends long in the making, enfeebling still further a political field that had been battered since the early 1990s by many changes and events, regional and international. The present essay [ii] seeks to highlight the factors underlying the precariousness and vulnerability of the Palestinian polity and its consequent polarization, the paralysis of its national institutions, and egregious foreign interference. Similar situations have been noted in other regional states subject to invasion and war (Lebanon, Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan, and the Sudan, among others), but the disarray is perhaps more visible in Palestine for reasons relating to its history, its specific regional and international context, and its ongoing subjection to settler-colonialism and territorial fragmentation. THE MAKING OF THE PALESTINIAN POLITICAL FIELD The Palestinian political field differs from most others in that it includes Palestinian communities with differing socioeconomic, state, and civil society structures, not only in historic Palestine (the 1967 occupied territories and Israel) but also in the diaspora (al-shatat) created by the 1948 Nakba. It was also formed outside the national territory, not by a state but by a national liberation movement that arose in the Palestinian shatat. From the outset, then, lacking a sovereign state, the Palestinian political field has been subject to powerful outside influences and pressures. Its leading institution, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), was founded at the initiative of the Arab states in 1964 and was initially under their control. It was only after the 1967 war, when the PLO was democratically taken over by Palestinian resistance organizations led by Fatah, that it became a popular mass movement and, several years later, the “sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.” For the next twenty-some years, the PLO and its constituent organizations conducted their political, military, and other activities from bases in countries bordering Israel and later from Tunisia. While this situation made it vulnerable to the machinations of various regional powers seeking to determine the political and economic shape of the Middle East, the fact that the pressures were conflicting helped the PLO maintain to a tangible degree its hegemony over a relatively autonomous Palestinian political field throughout the 1970s and 1980s. PLO hegemony over the Palestinian political field began to be challenged in the late 1980s with the emergence in the occupied territories of political Islam, whose main embodiment, Hamas, had been established at the start of the first intifada in 1987, and the smaller Islamic Jihad several years earlier. Both these organizations were indigenous, having grown out of local branches of the Muslim Brotherhood, and their prominence in the first intifada showed them to be a force to be reckoned with. However, it was not until the 1993 signing of the Oslo accords, which laid out the stages that were supposed to lead to full peace with Israel by the end of the decade, that the magnitude of the challenge posed by political Islam became fully apparent. Under the Oslo accords, the PLO leadership returned from its long exile to the Palestinian territories, thus moving the center of gravity of Palestinian politics to the “inside” for the first time since 1948. There it established the Palestinian Authority (PA), a self-governing body whose powers were sharply limited by the Israeli occupier but which was understood as the first step on the road to statehood. The accords were fiercely opposed by political Islam, as well as by a number of secular PLO factions, most importantly the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP). With a growing following, and already endowed with a high degree of discipline and organization, political Islam and especially Hamas found in opposition to Oslo a powerful cause around which to mobilize.
- Political Geography:
- Palestine and Gaza
79. The Palestinian Economy and Future Prospects: Interview with Mohammad Mustafa, Head of the Palestine Investment Fund
- Author:
- Salim Tamari, Khalid Farraj, and Nasr Abdul Karim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- Dr. Mohammad Mustafa is chairman and CEO of the Palestine Investment Fund (PIF) and an economic adviser to Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas. PIF, the leading investor in Palestine, is a publicly limited company fully owned by the people of Palestine. It was established in 2003 with the transfer of assets managed by the Palestinian Authority. Financially and administratively autonomous, it is governed by an independent board of directors and a general assembly representing civil society, nongovernmental organizations, academia, and the public and private sectors. In pursuit of its mandate—which is to strengthen the local economy through investments that foster sustainable economic development while maintaining and increasing existing national reserves—PIF owns direct majority and minority stakes in companies and follows a business model based on public-private partnerships. Currently, PIF has approximately $800 million in assets under management and is leading a $4 billion investment program aimed at stimulating economic growth and creating over 100,000 new job opportunities within the next five years. The interview was conducted in Amman, Jordan, in mid-December 2009 by Nasr Abdul Karim, former dean of economics at An-Najah University, Nablus, and by Salim Tamari and Khalid Farraj, respectively director and associate director of the Institute for Palestine Studies, Ramallah. Abdul Karim: We wanted to start by asking about the current state of the Palestinian economy, particularly after the 2007 split [between Fatah and Hamas]. There have been reports of significant improvement in the gross domestic product (GDP). Is the improvement due to government action or to Israeli steps to facilitate trade and economic development after Netanyahu's call for “economic peace”? Mustafa: There's been a marked improvement in the Palestinian economy in the West Bank in the last three years. Obviously, it hasn't reached where we want it to be. The Israeli occupation and its harsh and arbitrary policies negatively impact its performance and make it heavily dependent on the Israeli economy. Despite our recent efforts to decrease trade with Israel, it still constitutes 90 percent of total Palestinian trade. The result is an economy with only limited self-reliance and high donor dependency. And even though it is stable at present, it's still below its 1967 and 1999 levels. Let me go into some detail with regard to the current economic indicators. According to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund [IMF], the growth rate for the first half of 2009 was about 5 percent. Without Israeli restrictions, it would have been higher, perhaps as much as 12 percent. There is no question that the very considerable international support received by the [Palestinian] Authority—which amounted to $1.7 billion in 2008 and a bit less in 2009—played a large part in realizing this growth, but a significant part also resulted from the political stability and improved security in the West Bank, and from institutional, legal, and economic reforms. These two factors—international support and the improved situation on the ground—led to the recovery, albeit partial, of the private sector. One factor that had very adverse effects on the economy this year—especially on small investors whose ventures depend on Israel—was the difference in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Israeli shekel. The world economic downturn also had an impact on inflation, which decreased by 2 percent in 2009 relative to 2008 thanks to a drop in the price of certain commodities, specifically oil and some foodstuffs. It could decline further in 2010. Finally, unemployment remains extremely high, reaching 26 percent overall—40 percent in Gaza, 18 percent in the West Bank. These figures do not even include disguised unemployment. For the West Bank, however, we expect to see the rate begin to fall soon. We still have a long way to go, of course, before we reach our goal of an independent, sustainable economy, but this requires not only continuing the program of reform but also removing Israeli restrictions. Farraj: You mentioned unemployment in Gaza. What about the economic situation there? Mustafa: Gaza's economy is in a catastrophic state as a result of Israel's embargo and the absence of Palestinian legitimacy. The economy has been totally destroyed, particularly the private sector. The organized destruction of the economy in the past two years has completely done away with the economic wealth it took decades to build. Some enterprises established in the 1920s and 1930s have now been destroyed and cannot be rebuilt without huge effort. At present, Gaza's economy is based on three sources: (1) the salaries paid by the Authority to nearly 60,000 employees, which support about a million people; (2) the salaries and donor aid paid by the government in Gaza to its employees and members of its security forces; and (3) informal trade—in other words, the tunnels. I think Israel's ongoing embargo and policy of collective punishment of the entire Gaza population is utterly disgraceful. Even a partial reconstruction of Gaza has not been allowed to take place. The Sharm al-Shaykh donor conference [held on 2 March 2009] raised $4 billion, which was allocated for reconstruction, yet to this day there is no mechanism for getting even a fraction of these funds into Gaza. Furthermore, the Israeli embargo prevents materials, such as cement, steel, and wood, needed to restore destroyed homes and buildings from entering. Certainly Gaza's economy was already bad before the blockade, but with the ongoing embargo and the catastrophic destruction of the Israeli invasion it continues to get worse. In my view, the Palestinian economy will never be strong until the two halves of the nation are reunited, national reconciliation is achieved, and Palestinian legality in Gaza is restored.
- Political Geography:
- Palestine and Gaza
80. Settlement Monitor
- Author:
- Geoffrey Aronson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- This section covers items—reprinted articles, statistics, and maps—pertaining to Israeli settlement activities in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights. Unless otherwise stated, the items have been written by Geoffrey Aronson for this section or drawn from material written by him for Report on Israeli Settlement in the Occupied Territories (hereinafter Settlement Report), a Washington-based bimonthly newsletter published by the Foundation for Middle East Peace. JPS is grateful to the foundation for permission to draw on its material.
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Gaza