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41. The Use of Predictive Analysis Programs in Police Intelligence: A European Comparison / El uso de programas de análisis predictivo en la inteligencia policial: una comparativa europea

Author:
Virginia Cinelli and Alberto Manrique Gan
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Nowadays, two main limitations persist in intelligence analysis: the intrinsic existence of a certain degree of uncertainty and the large volume of information available. In order to face these problems, since the end of the 90s, technology and statistics have been used in the field of security to tackle the analytical limitations of human beings, improving their performances. As a result, professionals in the crime prevention areas started using technology in investigation to calculate the probability that a (criminal) event might occur in the future. Such a phenomenon is also called predictive analysis. Today, Europe stands out both for the number and the type of predictive programs implemented in different national contexts. The main objective of this article is to analyze the phenomenon of predictive policing in the European context through a comparative analysis of 6 cases study in 5 different countries (Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom) to, firstly, assess the implications in the improvement of the security context of the European Union, and secondly, to detect the innovative cases within this framework.
Topic:
Crime, Intelligence, Science and Technology, and European Union
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Italy, and Netherlands

42. Mounting tensions in France-Italy relations: Troubled waters between European partners

Author:
Marco Siddi
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Since its formation in mid-2018, the new Italian government has engaged in a series of arguments with France, most recently over the controversial actions of an Italian minister. However, these tensions have deeper roots that can be traced to different views on Libya and migration.
Topic:
Migration, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Libya, and Italy

43. The Exorbitant Privilege of High Tax Countries

Author:
Vincent Vicard
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
The well documented US excess returns on its net foreign assets is no exception at the world level. Excess returns on foreign assets owe largely to yield differential within the FDI asset class and are correlated to the corporate tax rate for a large sample of countries, consistently with tax motivated profit shifting by multinational corporations. Using French firm level data on dividends and reinvested earnings from foreign affiliates, I provide evidence and quantify the impact of corporate tax avoidance on international asset returns. Profit shifting inflates the investment income balance and accounts for the average 2 percentage points return differential between French FDI assets and liabilities. Missing profts in France, estimated at €36 billions or 1.6% of GDP in 2015, are mostly shifted to EU countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, European Union, GDP, Tax Systems, Profit, and Corporate Tax
Political Geography:
United States and France

44. De Gaulle’den Frexit Tartışmalarına: Fransa Avrupa Birliği’nin Neresinde

Author:
Filiz Cicioğlu and Duygu Kalkan
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Avrupa Birliği, II. Dünya Savaşı’nın ardından Avrupa’da barış ve güvenliği sağlamak amacıyla kurulan bir bütünleşme sürecidir. Avrupa Birliği’nin Schuman Deklarasyonu ile başlayan ve yarım asırdan fazladır devam eden bu serüveni, Fransa dış politikasının ana gündem maddelerinden birini oluşturmuştur. Birliğin kurucu üyelerinden olan Fransa, Avrupa bütünleşme tarihinin baş aktörlerindendir. Nitel kaynak taraması yönteminin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada analiz birimi Beşinci Cumhuriyet Fransa’sının devlet başkanlarıdır. Devlet başkanlarının (De Gaulle’den Macron’a) vizyonları, misyonları ve AB derinleşme / genişleme hareketlerine olan etkileri tarihsel bir perspektifte sunulmaya çalışılacaktır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Fransa devlet başkanlarının Avrupa Birliği konusundaki eğilimlerini federalizm-konfederalizm yaklaşımları çerçevesinde değerlendirmek ve Fransa’nın Avrupa bütünleşmesine olan etkisini (yavaşlatma / engel olma / katkı sağlama) ortaya koymaktır. Federal-konfederal skalasında Avrupa bütünleşmesine katkı sağlayan devlet adamlarının federal modele; bütünleşmeyi yavaşlatan, genişleme ve derinleşme hareketlerini engelleyen devlet adamlarının konfederal modele daha yakın olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Avrupa Birliği konusunda konfederal bir tutum benimseyen De Gaulle döneminde yaşanan “Boş Sandalye Krizi” Avrupa Birliği’nin karar alma süreçlerini yedi ay boyunca kilitlemiş, bu krizin bütünleşmeyi yavaşlatıcı etkisi uzun yıllar devam etmiştir. İngiltere’nin 1963 ve 1967 yıllarındaki Birliğe üyelik başvurusunun De Gaulle tarafından reddedilmesiyle Birliğin genişleme hareketleri engellenmiştir. De Gaulle’den sonra iktidara gelen Georges Pompidou döneminde genişleme yolundaki veto kaldırarak genişleme hareketlerinin önü açılmıştır. De Gaulle döneminde ulusal amaçlarını gerçekleştirmek için bir “araç” olmaktan öteye gidemeyen Avrupa bütünleşmesi De Gaulle sonrasındaki devlet adamlarınca daha güçlü bir biçimde savunulmuştur. Yapılan bu çalışma ile 1958’den günümüze, Fransa’nın Avrupa Birliği konusundaki federal eğilimlerinde artış yaşandığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu süreçte Fransa, Avrupa’da lider olmak amacıyla dâhil olduğu Avrupa Birliği projesinde istediği konumu elde edememiştir.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Federalism, and Confederalism
Political Geography:
Europe and France

45. The Regional Format 16+1: Early Rusting, Still Alive and Expanding into 17+1

Author:
Rudolf Furst
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
The sub-regional multilateral format of China and 16 post-communist states (16+1) proved that it could last seven years and that it has the potential to absorb new members. Consequently, the European Union is increasingly concerned about its potentially divisive effects on the EU’s unity. The expected economic benefits of 16+1 for the European partners have been scarcely relevant; still, the European states exploit the 16+1 format for strengthening their bilateral agendas with China. Amidst the trade war with China, the US regards China’s rising influence in Central Europe as a political issue. Beijing’s priority in Europe is to calm down the tension with the EU, Germany, and France over the 16+1 platform. However, the accession of Greece to the enlarged format of 17+1 in the recent 16+1 summit in Dubrovnik and the gaining of support for the Belt and Road Initiative in Italy enable China to establish its foothold on the European South’s doorstep in connection with the 17+1 regional platform.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Economy, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, France, and Germany

46. Can the European Union Save Multilateralism?

Author:
Mikael Barfod
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Controversies have abounded, including Palestine and Israel within the UN's Human Rights Council, lack of US support for the International Law of the Sea (since 1994), and the International Criminal Court (since 2002). Collectively, the European Union and its Member States remain by far the largest financial contributor to the UN, providing 30% of all contributions to the budget and 31% of peace-keeping activities in addition to substantial contributions towards project-based funding. 4. Some may object that the European Union has been hampered by the lack of a common position among EU Member States on the future of the UN Security Council (UNSC), where two member-states, UK and France, currently have permanent seats and one, Germany, is desperate to get one.
Topic:
International Relations, Cold War, Human Rights, European Union, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Africa, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Israel, Asia, France, Germany, and United States of America

47. L’ambivalence de la politique d’armement britannique vis-à-vis de l’Europe (The Ambivalence of British Arms Policy Towards Europe)

Author:
Samuel B. H. Faure
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Published in the context of Brexit, this research paper analyses the ‘double relationship’ between Britain and Europe: being ‘in’ by taking part in co-operation with other European states, and at the same time being ‘out’ by staying away from or even leaving multilateral programmes in Europe. This dilemma is worked on from the case of defence procurement policy. How does the British government decide to be both ‘in’ and ‘out’ of Europe by participating in the A400M military transport aircraft programme and withdrawing from the EuroMale UAV programme? Based on exclusive data, the decision in favour of the A400M (‘in’) is explained by the action of political, administrative and industrial actors who perceive the A400M as a ‘truck’ rather than a ‘race car’. As for the British State’s decision not to participate in the EuroMale programme (‘out’), it is conditioned by a weakening of the political will of political actors, and at the same time by a strengthening of conflicting relations between French and British administrations and industries. In doing so, this research contributes to the literature on the acquisition of armaments in strategic studies, and to the literature on differentiated integration in European studies.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Political Economy, European Union, Brexit, Conflict, and Europeanization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, France, Western Europe, and European Union

48. Nowhere But Out: The failure of France and Italy to Help Refugees and Other Migrants Stranded at the Border in Ventimiglia

Author:
Guilia Capitani
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In Ventimiglia, near the border between Italy and France, refugees and other migrants are living rough, without access to the most basic services. Women, men and children are ‘pushed’ out of the Italian asylum system, which often fails to meet their most basic needs for safety, information and education. Across the border, the French police meet children with abuse, and send them back to Italy in violation of French and EU law. Stranded, hundreds of people are unable to seek even basic support.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Refugees, Borders, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Italy

49. The European Dimension of Nuclear Deterrence: French and British policies and future scenarios

Author:
Bruno Tertrais
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
While the idea of a “European nuclear deterrent” has a long history, it has recently made a comeback in the light of Russian aggression on the continent, growing tensions in the transatlantic relationship since the election of Donald Trump, as well as the British decision to leave the European Union. Voices are being heard in Germany in particular, arguing for stronger European nuclear autonomy. This paper analyses how the French and British deterrents could play a broader and stronger role in ensuring the security of the continent. Discarding the idea of a single “European deterrent”, it suggests possible credible pathways to enhance European nuclear cooperation based on French and possibly British forces, preferably outside the EU context. Furthermore, it suggests that future US decisions and policies towards Europe will be a critical factor in defining the range of realistic scenarios and outcomes.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, European Union, Deterrence, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, France, and North America

50. France and European defence: Continuity in long-term objectives, change in strategy

Author:
Pernille Reiker
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
While the overall ambition (grandeur and status-seeking) in French foreign policy has been surprisingly stable, different strategies and approaches have been adopted. The French approach over the past 15 to 20 years has been to focus on status-seeking through legitimacy, and we have seen a gradual shift towards a French foreign policy that is increasingly guided by international law and multilateralism. There are also elements of both continuity and change in French ambitions for European defence. While the long-term ambition is the same, the French approach towards European defence has changed from being concerned with developing the defence structures within the EU (“Europe de la defence”) to becoming more concerned with the need to strengthen the European capacity to act. Different types of French initiatives over the past decades – within or outside the European Union – must all be seen as ways of strengthening the European defence capacity: The French return to NATO’s International Military Staff in 2009, the French-British defence cooperation from 2010, the French-German initiative to set up the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), and the recent French initiative to launch a European Intervention Initiative (EI2).
Topic:
Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and France