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171. Brexit: What Happens Next?

Author:
Tim Oliver
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
A British withdrawal from the EU would be a process not an event. This Strategic Update sets out the nine overlapping series of negotiations that would be triggered and the positions the 27 remaining EU countries and the EU’s institutions would take, gathered from a network of researchers across the continent.
Topic:
Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain and European Union

172. A EU without the UK: The Geopolitics of a British Exit from the EU

Author:
Tim Oliver
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
A vote by the British people to withdraw from the EU – also known as a ‘Brexit’ – will have significant implications for the EU, the ideas and structures of European integration, and European geopolitics. Opinion polls show that a vote to withdraw is a distinct possibility. The EU, the rest of Europe, allies around the world and the UK itself need to prepare for the wider international implications of such a move. This Strategic Update examines how likely a Brexit is and explores what it could mean for the EU, European integration, and Europe’s economics and security.
Topic:
Geopolitics and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain and European Union

173. Keeping Europeans together

Author:
Josef Janning
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
This volume reflects the diversity of European cohesion. It provides the national context and personal assessments from 28 EU member states.
Topic:
International Cooperation
Political Geography:
European Union

174. Assessing EU development cooperation: from infancy to maturity?

Author:
Eva Krizkova
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The development cooperation policy of the EU is an important political and economic tool. Nevertheless, its importance might be underestimated in today’s public debate. In 2000 and 2015 the international community adopted development goals (the so-called Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals), in which poverty eradication and global inclusive sustainable prosperity were set as priorities. In this framework, EU development cooperation is one of the most important tools in the accomplishment of these goals.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Millennium Development Goals, and International Development
Political Geography:
European Union

175. The European Union and Investor-State Dispute Settlement: From Investor-State Arbitration to a Permanent Investment Court

Author:
August Reinisch
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Since the transfer of foreign direct investment powers from the European Union member states to the European Union itself in the 2009 Treaty of Lisbon, the European Commission, the main external trade actor for the European Union, has started to negotiate international investment agreements as well as investment chapters in enlarged free trade agreements (FTAs). Both contain substantive protection standards and enforcement mechanisms in case of disputes, usually both state–state and investor–state arbitration (ISA). With regard to the latter, it was unclear whether the European Commission, the European Union’s experienced World Trade Organization (WTO) litigator, would continue to use the interstate template of trade disputes or venture into ISA. After an initial orientation period, the European Commission rmly endorsed ISA, as demonstrated by the negotiations with Canada on the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and with the United States on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Meanwhile, however, public opposition to the TTIP, and to ISA in particular, has formed in unexpected dimensions. It even led the European Commission to partially interrupt its trade negotiations with the United States in order to conduct a public consultation on the investment aspects of the TTIP. Ever since, ISA has remained one of the most controversial parts of the planned trade agreements. Most recently, the European Commission tabled a TTIP proposal to set up a permanent investment court that would replace the system of ad hoc ISA. This paper analyzes in detail the development of the European Union’s position toward the use of ISA as a means for settling investor-state disputes.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
European Union

176. Ukraine’s relations with Russia, the EU and the US: The background, the current crisis and what must be done

Author:
Volodymyr Dubovyk
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Since the beginning of Euromaidan (Maidan II), Ukraine finds itself entangled in a deep crisis, which, while not necessarily existential, dramatically alters the country’s internal dynamics and international positioning vis-à-vis its neighbors and other significant regional and global players. To handle this crisis, Ukraine must find the right method of dealing with international players, especially the Russian Federation, the European Union and the United States of America. Ukraine should take certain actions against the new super-assertive and aggressive Russia. The European Union unquestionably has provided significant aid to Ukraine during these turbulent times. However, there remains great potential for cooperation, and questions linger regarding whether the EU is prepared to foot the bill for pulling Ukraine’s economy away from the brink indefinitely. Finally, the United States should by all means continue doing its good work in bringing attention to the situation in and around Ukraine in a variety of ways, including multilateral venues, unilateral initiatives, and bilateral frameworks. The fact that Ukraine is located in Europe does not make this crisis a mere European problem but a conflict with global repercussions.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and European Union

177. Ukraine in Contemporary Geopolitical and Socioeconomic Relations

Author:
Grigoriy Shamborovskyi
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
This paper explores topics related to Ukraine’s Relations with Russia, the EU, and the US. These relationships are explored in terms of international trade, security issues and institution building. Finally, the existence of internal political and socioeconomic divisions is discussed.
Topic:
International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, International Security, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:
Russia, America, Ukraine, and European Union

178. Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU Member States. 2015 Report

Author:
Luca Barbone, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky, and Grzegorz Poniatowski
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report provides estimates of the VAT Gap for 26 EU Member States for 2013, as well as revised estimates for the period 2009-2012. It is a follow-up to the report “Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member Statess, published in September 2013 (hereafter: 2013 Report), and to the report “2012 Update Report to the Study to Quantify and Analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States” , published in October 2014 (hereafter: 2014 Report). As in previous reports, it was not possible to include estimates for Croatia and Cyprus, due to as-yet-incomplete national account statistics for the two countries. The VAT Gap is an indicator of the effectiveness of VAT enforcement and compliance measures, as it provides an estimate of revenue loss due to fraud and evasion, tax avoidance, bankruptcies, financial insolvencies as well as miscalculations. As the VAT Gap in this study is based on a top-down approach, it does not readily lend itself to be deconstructed according to industrial sectors or other criteria (territorial, professional), and can be best used as a diagnostic tool in the context of its evolution over time. As discussed in previous reports, the VAT Gap is defined as the difference between the amount of VAT actually collected and the VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL), in absolute or percentage terms. The VTTL is an estimated amount of VAT that is theoretically collectable based on the VAT legislation and ancillary regulations. This report calculates, for each country the VTTL on the basis of national accounts, by mapping information on standard, reduced rates and exemptions onto data available on final and intermediate consumption, as well as gross fixed capital formation, from national accounts and use tables. Thus, the quality of the VAT Gap estimates depends on the accuracy and completeness of national accounts data and use tables. The year 2013 saw a continuing overall unfavourable economic environment, as the GDP of the European Union was nearly stagnant. This contributed to a slowdown of nominal final consumption and of other economic aggregates that form the basis of the Value Added Tax. Six countries applied changes to standard or reduced rates in 2013, marking a relatively stable policy environment. During 2013, the overall VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL) for the EU-26 Member States grew by about 1.2 percent, while collected VAT revenues rose by 1.1 percent. As a result, the overall VAT Gap in the EU-26 saw an increase in absolute values of about Euro 2.8 billion, to reach Euro 168 billion. As a percentage, the overall VAT Gap stayed constant at 15.2 percent. The median VAT Gap rose by 1.6 percentage point, to reach 13.9 percent. In 2013, Member States’ estimated VAT Gaps ranged from the low of 4 percent in Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden, to the high of 41 percent in Romania. Overall, 15 Member States decreased their VAT Gap, with the largest improvements noted in Latvia, Malta and Slovakia. 11 Member States saw an increase in the VAT Gap, generally of small magnitudes, with the largest deteriorations in Estonia and Italy. This report also provides new and expanded evidence on the Policy Gap for the EU-26. The Policy Gap is an indicator of the additional VAT revenue that a Member State could theoretically collect if it applied standard rate to all consumption of goods and services supplied for consideration. We provide here estimates of the Policy Gap adjusted to take into account items that could not easily be taxed even in an “ideal” system (imputed rents, public goods, financial services). The results moderate views of the relative importance of reduced rates and exemptions in reducing the revenue potential of VAT, and suggest that better enforcement remains a key component of any strategy of improvement of the VAT system. The results of this report and the underlying data were presented to Member States in advance of publication and discussed on several occasions with the representatives of Member States. Deviating approaches and views of Member States are noted in the relevant country section in Chapter 3. The authors are grateful for the constructive cooperation and helpful input of Member States.
Topic:
Economic growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, VAT, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

179. Sovereign Bond Purchases and Risk-Sharing Arrangements – Implications for Monetary Policy

Author:
Monika Blaszkiewicz
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The design of the euro area Quantitative Easing (QE) programme raises the question of whether insufficient liquidity in the bond markets will reduce the impact of the programme and lead to market volatility. While estimates suggests that scarcity of around €102 billion may arise over the life of the programme, to date the QE programme has met its monthly targets and bond market volatility has been managed. Questions also arise in respect of the fact that risk is not fully shared on up to €738.4 billion to be purchased over the life of the programme. Partial risk sharing raises the spectre of defaulting central banks exiting the euro system, and existing members being unwilling to bear associated costs, and thus the future of the euro area. However, estimations suggest that, at present, all national central banks should be able to bare losses stemming from sovereign debt purchases under the current round of QE. This report was prepared within a research project entitled Sovereign bond purchases and risk sharing arrangements: Implications for euro-area monetary policy, which received funding from the European Parliament.
Topic:
Finance, Economic growth, Banks, Trade, and European Central Bank
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

180. The impact of living and working longer on pension income in five European countries: Estonia, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands and Poland

Author:
Andres Võrk, Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska, Elena Jarocinska, Niku Määttänen, Robert Gál, and Theo Nijman
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Life expectancies are rapidly increasing and uncertain in all countries in Europe. To keep pension systems affordable, policy reforms are to be implemented which will encourage individuals to work longer. In this paper we analyze the impact of working and living longer on pension incomes in five European countries and assess the impact of these policy reforms on the financial well-being of the elderly. The paper shows the diversity of the policy measures taken in these countries. Furthermore, we analyze the financial incentives for working longer and postponing claiming pension benefits and we assess the attractiveness of these options. Lastly, we study how increases in life expectancies and survival probabilities affect pension incomes.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Labor Policies, Public Policy, Innovation, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, Poland, Estonia, Hungary, Netherlands, and European Union