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121. Stabilization Policies and Structural Developments: Poland and the Crises of 1929 and 2008

Author:
Zbigniew Polański
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This paper contrasts the impact of the 1929 and 2008 world crises on the Polish economy. Her much better performance during the recent crisis can be explained by two groups of factors: first, by very different stabilization policies and second, by distinct structural developments (resulting both from authorities' structural policies and spontaneous processes). It is emphasized that several factors responsible for Poland's superior performance during the 2008 crisis also contributed to her economic success vis-à-vis other European Union countries.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Economic structure, Economic growth, Global Financial Crisis, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

122. The Future Development of EU Exports in a Global Context

Author:
Robert Stehrer, Roman Stöllinger, and Sandra Leitner
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Global trade patterns are changing rapidly. Emerging economies are increasing their share of exports overall and intensifying competition in nearly all sectors. Using a gravity-based approach, this report examines the future profile of European Union (EU) world market shares at the aggregate and sectoral level. It further points towards the changing patterns of trade within the EU. Based on the results, some conclusions on EU industrial policy are drawn.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Global Markets, Economic growth, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

123. The Relevance of Financial and Economic Factors for Determining Banking Risk across Europe

Author:
Renata Karkowska
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The goal of this study is to identify empirically how country-level development, taking into account the financial and macroeconomic environment, affect the risk profiles of the banking sector in Europe. Through a dataset that covers 3,399 European banks spanning the period 1996-2011, and the methodology of panel regression, the empirical findings document the heterogeneity of banking risk determinants. I examine the implications of bank leverage that manifest itself as spreading and growing instability. The study contributes to and combines the different strands of literature and understanding of the importance of the links between the variables. It also contributes to the literature by focusing on a group of countries from Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States that have not been studied before. The extended model provides a causal link between risk in the banking sector and the growth of the financial market and macroeconomy. I apply four measures of country-level development that are available in previous studies: share of foreign ownership in the banking sector; the financial freedom index; the real growth rate; and stock market capitalization. Using these measures, I obtain different results which highlight the fact that the effect of macroeconomic and financial development on banking sector risk-taking is ambiguous.
Topic:
Financial Markets, Economic growth, Banks, Trade Liberalization, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and European Union

124. Domestic Cycles, Financial Cycles, and Policies. What Has Gone Wrong?

Author:
Daniel Daianu
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The financial crisis and its ensuing effects have brought back into the limelight the issue of cycles and of policies which fuel or mitigate crises. Cognitive and operational models in economics and business are questioned. There is a specter of much lower economic growth in the industrialized world. Central banks are over-burdened. This makes central bankers’ lives much more complicated and obfuscates the boundaries between monetary policy and fiscal policy, especially when financial stability gets to center stage. New systemic risks show up in capital markets. The eurozone has escaped collapse owing to the European Central Bank’s extraordinary operations and large macro-imbalance corrections in its periphery, but major threats persist. This paper focuses on economic cycles and policies in an international (European) context. Attention is paid to linkages between domestic cycles and the European financial cycle, drivers of financial cycles, finance deregulation and systemic risks, ultra-low interest rates, the international policy regime, and global stability. The experience of European emerging economies is taken into account.
Topic:
Debt, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Economies, Economic growth, Interest Rates, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

125. The Influence of Economic Migration on the Polish Economy

Author:
Agata Górny, Paweł Kaczmarczyk, and Joanna Tyrowicz
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In the ongoing public debate on economic migration to Poland, emotional statements, or those without any basis in data, often have the upper hand. But in order to speak rationally about Poland as a destination country for immigrants, it is necessary to fully understand the conditions – and in particular the weaknesses – of the Polish labor market. It’s also worth becoming aware of the scale of the processes being discussed. In the 149th mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings, Joanna Tyrowicz analyzes whether immigration could be a significant labor market driver in Poland. Paweł Kaczmarczyk and Agata Górny discuss the structural consequences of the inflow of Ukrainian workers to the Polish labor market.
Topic:
Markets, Migration, Labor Issues, Immigration, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

126. More for less: What tax system for Poland?

Author:
Stanisław Gomułka, Jarosław Neneman, and Michał Myck
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
What are the challenges facing Poland’s economy and tax system over the next 20 years? What does the optimal tax system mean? Do we have high taxes in Poland? The goal of the publication is to initiate a discussion on the subject of a tax system for Poland, presenting a framework within which the current system should be analyzed and conclusions drawn about what changes are needed over the longer term. Professor Stanisław Gomułka, chief economist of the Business Centre Club, analyzes the challenges facing Poland’s economy and tax system over the next 20 years. Jarosław Neneman, an assistant professor at Łazarski University, presents the basic parameters for a planned academic research project on how to use the Polish tax system effectively. Michał Myck, director and board member of CenEA (the Center for Economic Analysis) describes the optimal characteristics of a tax system according to theory and the results of scholarly research, which of course also relates to the Polish tax system.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

127. How the European Commission and European countries fight VAT fraud

Author:
Kamil Olczykowski, Piotr Laskowski, Tomasz Kassel, and Tomasz Michalik
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The VAT gap, both on the European Union scale and that of particular member states (though not all of them) appeals to the imagination and awakens many extreme emotions. For it is difficult to accept that the level is so significant, and – what is more – in recent years it has narrowed quite insignificantly despite attempts to limit it. In the popular understanding, this gap is quite often identified exclusively with the consequences of fraud, but it has many more component elements, many of which have nothing to do with abuse. Still, this doesn’t change the face that it is precisely fraud and abuse that constitute a particularly significant element of the VAT gap.
Topic:
Financial Crimes, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

128. The Catalan economy: Crisis, recovery and policy challenges

Author:
Xavier Cuadras-Morató
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Catalonia is one of the richest regions in Spain. Until the outbreak of the international financial and economic crisis in 2008, it enjoyed a phenomenal economic boom – which then turned into a very severe depression, from which the region began to exit only in 2014. Consolidating the recovery and making the economy more competitive and resilient, and less volatile, are some of the key challenges of economic policy in Catalonia. Also, to improve the region’s social cohesion, policymakers should make sure that economic prosperity is more widely shared, and transform it into an effective tool for social progress.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Economic growth, Social Policy, Global Financial Crisis, Economic Policy, Trade, and Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, Catalonia, and European Union

129. Economic policy, the international environment and the state of Poland’s public finances: Scenarios

Author:
Aleksander Łaszek
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Poland’s structural deficit is one of the largest in the EU. While other Member States are taking action to reduce their deficits, the Polish government has not only introduced costly projects, but has also announced additional projects that will further aggravate the state of Polish public finances. The aim of maintaining the nominal deficit under 3% of GDP, as declared by the government, is insufficient because it does not leave a margin of safety in case of an economic slowdown. In the meantime, the turbulent global economy and the structural challenges the Polish economy is facing make the scenario of an economic slowdown increasingly plausible. Dr. Aleksander Łaszek evaluates the government’s current policy through the lens of the challenges that stand a head of Polish economy, and its resilience to shocks, in the new mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings "Economic policy, the international environment and the state of Poland’s public finances: Scenarios".
Topic:
Debt, Government, Finance, Economic growth, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

130. Challenges in Common European Defense Policy: Russia’s Involvement in Ukraine

Author:
Monica M. Ruiz
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
There are often misunderstandings among member states in international organizations (IO) regarding the legal nature of certain acts. Issues of privileges and immunities based on the principle of functional necessity, both inherent and implied powers, and the principle of good faith under common law are continuously criticized and debated by both member states and IOs alike. For this reason, international legal order can be a process of continuous transition and constant evolution. This essay analyzes the development and changes of legal norms in the European Union’s (EU) Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). On that basis, it will unfold by looking at the EU’s legal structure to create a solid framework for understanding the current challenges for common European defense policy in relation to Russia’s involvement in Ukraine. Although there have been substantial legal improvements introduced by the Treaty of Amsterdam (effective 1999) and by the Treaty of Nice (effective 2003) to help clarify the ambiguous nature of the CFSP, its objectives remain wide and abstract. This further precludes the EU from formulating a joint and coherent stance on issues related to defense...
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Law, International Organization, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and European Union