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341. The Asian Balance of Weapons of Mass Destruction A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Beijing continues to emerge as an increasingly active player in the region. Therefore, it is focused on becoming a world - class industrialized power through a countrywide modernization effort, which includes economic, technological, and military components of national power. Beijing already wields significant international influence by virtue of its permanent membership on the United Nations (UN) Security Council and its economic influence. China's public support for nonproliferation regimes is motivated by several factors, including a desire to enhance its image as a responsible world power and support for nonproliferation objectives.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, South Asia, Beijing, and Asia

342. US and Russian Nuclear Forces and Arms Control After the US Nuclear Posture Review

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The reporting of START accountable warheads has led to serious confusion between START accountable warheads and actual warheads.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, and Asia

343. The Nuclear Dimension of U.S.-Russian Relations: Missile Defense, Arms Control and 'Loose Nukes'

Author:
Rose Gottemoeller
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The United States and Russia are entering an important stage following the Presidential summit of May 2002. Since Presidents Bush and Putin first started getting to know one another last year, they have been declaring the onset of a fundamentally new relationship, based on a new framework for strategic cooperation. Both leaders have declared that the Cold War is over and that our two countries can exist as friends.
Topic:
Cold War, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

344. Italian Legal Framework

Author:
Federico Casolari
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On 1 April 2001 the first conventions between European Community and third Countries on the single currency entered into force. The agreements in question, as already mentioned, are the Monetary Agreement between the Italian Republic (I.R.), on behalf of the European Community, and the Republic of San Marino (29 November 2000), and the Monetary Agreement between I.R., on behalf of the European Community, and the Vatican City (29 December 2000).
Topic:
International Law and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

345. The Adapted CFE Treaty and the Admission of the Baltic States to NATO

Author:
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Twelve years after conventional arms control began in Europe, the process is about to enter a new, critical stage as it extends to cover the entire continent. This will eventually rid it of the cold war 'straitjacket' and consolidate political and military security in the space extending from the Atlantic to the Urals. Since the cold war, the situation in Europe and elsewhere has changed radically. The priorities, the rules of the game, and the groups and actors on the political stage are different. Consequently, ways of thinking about security and the options available are also changing. Military security has evolved and its role differs from that of the past. The conventional arms control regime, which was negotiated and agreed during the final stages of the cold war, needed to be modernized to adapt to the developments that have occurred since 1989–90. Consequently, in recent years momentous decisions have been taken regarding both the enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the adaptation of the conventional arms control regime.
Topic:
NATO and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

346. Good Fences Make Good Neighbours?: A Comparison of Consociational and Integrative Conflict Regulation Strategies in Post-Dayton Bosnia

Author:
Nina Fallentin Caspersen
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Based on conflict regulation in post-Dayton Bosnia, it will in this paper be analysed whether an integrative or a consociational approach is more effective in fostering stability following an ethnic war. I will compare the effectiveness of the approaches in fostering stability in post-Dayton Bosnia, and from this analysis seek to identify the empirical conditions that affect the effectiveness of the approaches and hence the conditions under which they should be prescribed. Whereas the ethnic groups in Lijphart's consociational approach constitute the basic units on which the political structure is built, Horowitz contends in his integrative approach that political structures must transcend the ethnic divisions, they must obliterate the divide. The Dayton Agreement that ended the war in Bosnia contains elements of both approaches and the balance between them has been changing in the course of its implementation. The case, therefore, constitutes a very suitable case for an empirical test. I will argue that due to the depth of divisions, the numerical balance between the groups, and the maximalist objectives of the parties, the consociational model has been more effective in fostering stability in Bosnia. Presently, a change to an integrative structure seems premature, but a mix of the approaches has been demonstrated to be able to foster moderation and the way forward could be a continued incremental change of the balance of this mix.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Bosnia

347. The Adapted CFE Treaty and the Admission of the Baltic States to NATO

Author:
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Twelve years after conventional arms control began in Europe, the process is about to enter a new, critical stage as it extends to cover the entire continent. This will eventually rid it of the cold war 'straitjacket' and consolidate political and military security in the space extending from the Atlantic to the Urals.
Topic:
NATO and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

348. Constitutional Reform and the 'Spirit' of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:
Valery Perry
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
Critics of the General Framework Agreement for Peace (GFAP, or Dayton Peace Agreement) have been pointing out its inherent flaws and inconsistencies from the moment the terms became public, and the real challenges of implementation quickly became clear. For the past six years there have been calls to revisit, reform, or rewrite Dayton through a variety of suggested procedures. The most aggressive voices for change have suggested convening a meeting to develop a ‘Dayton II’, which would have as its main goal solidification of the peace, rather than just termination of the war. Instead, a more subtle approach has been in practice since 1997, when the High Representative’s powers were strengthened and his mandate effectively widened. Under a more aggressive implementation policy, the GFAP would be implemented not purely according to the letter of the accords, but according to ‘the spirit of Dayton’. Defining this ‘spirit’ has been controversial and challenging, and the current debate concerning the ref orm of the Entity Constitutions to comply with the Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) Constitutional Court’s decision on the status and equality of the constituent peoples in BiH will be a significant step in defining both the spirit of Dayton, as well as the spirit and character of BiH as a state. This brief explores this complex issue and its potential implications for local and international politicians in BiH. First, a short background on the Constitutional Court decision is presented. Second, the options currently under discussion are reviewed, within the framework of symmetrical and asymmetrical reform alternatives. Third, the broad relevance of this single issue to the larger issues concerning the legitimacy of the current organization of the state of BiH is considered.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Minorities, Reform, Ethnicity, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe and Bosnia and Herzegovina

349. Enlarging the European Union: Where does Turkey Stand?

Author:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
EU decision-making with regard to Turkey is interesting to examine in terms of European integration and enlargement issues. One basic assumption of the paper is that Turkey’s position in the enlargement process cannot be treated as an independent case on its own, but should be evaluated within the larger framework of enlargement. In other words, the EU’s reservations, the role of the EU public towards the process of enlargement, the bargains that will be conducted between member states during enlargement negotiations for all candidate countries affect Turkey’s position in the enlargement process. This is not to say that the EU does not have specific reservations and issues that relate only to the Turkish case, but that the picture is more complicated than a European Union-Turkish bilateral relationship. The factors that are relevant in this picture are the European Union’s policy making mechanisms, the role of public opinion, the EU’s institutional set-up and of course the EU member states’ preferences. This approach therefore differs from previous work on the subject by placing EU-Turkish relations within a multilateral framework of enlargement in general, rather than a binary relationship. Similarly, I have argued elsewhere in a work co-authored with Lauren McLaren, that Turkey’s relations with the European Union should be evaluated within a perspective of the enlargement preferences of EU members and policy making in the European Union. The assumption in that work was that member states’ preferences determine the outcome of bargains in the European Union’s policy of enlargement.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

350. Turkey and Europe After the Nice Summit

Author:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
While European Union attitudes on a possible Turkish accession are the subject of these reflections, the title is taken from President Turgut Özal. He used to tell those close to him that Turkey will either be at the table in Europe as a full member or it will find itself on the menu (Makovsky, 1999, 92). The Turkish perspective encapsulated in both parts of this aphorism also provides a good starting point for West and East Europeans interested in what is at stake.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean