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211. Should ratification proceed? An Assessment of Different Options after the Failed Referenda

Author:
Sebastian Kurpas
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
After the resounding Dutch no-vote of 62%, ratification of the Constitutional Treaty has become even less likely than it already was after the political earthquake caused by the French referendum three days before. While the German Chancellor and the French President encourage other countries to continue with the ratification process, the British message is clear: Any attempt to proceed at this point would be pointless. British Foreign Minister Jack Straw found rather subtle words in the House of Commons to describe the situation, but other sources suggest that instead of wasting their time on a lengthy and useless exercise that would cost the EU even more support, European leaders should bury the Constitution at the upcoming European Summit on 16-17 June (or soon afterwards) and then settle for something 'more modest'.
Topic:
Government and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and France

212. Plan B

Author:
Richard Baldwin
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The resounding French 'non' will have important consequences for French domestic politics. It may also change the way EU leaders proceed with future Treaties. But I do not believe that it will be the 'political tsunami' for the EU that many observers have predicted. Two reasons buttress this belief.
Topic:
International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and France

213. A Citizens Compact: Reaching out to the Citizens of Europe

Author:
Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, Justus Schönlau, Daniel Keohane, Julia De Clerck-Sachsse, Gaëtane Ricard-Nihoul, José I. Torreblanca, Martin Koopmann, Fredrik Langdal, Ben Crum, Anna de Klauman, Anne Mette Vestergaard, and David Kràl
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
How can the deadlock after the 'no' to the European Constitutional Treaty in France and the Netherlands be overcome? What should be the aim of the 'period of reflection' that has been agreed by the European Council?
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

214. Update on the Ratification Debates: What Prospects for the European Constitutional Treaty? Results of and EPIN Survey of National Experts

Author:
Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, Justus Schönlau, and Julia De Clerck-Sachsse
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The ratification process of the Constitutional Treaty has taken some unexpected turns, since the publication of our initial report. The situation has changed especially dramatically in France: within only 10 days the 'yes' camp slid from a previously stable figure of around 60% to below 50%. Our report had concluded that “if the reasons for a particular European compromise are not made transparent to the citizens, issues can be used in a divisive way at the national level”. It therefore called for a stronger European dimension in the national debates and expressed the hope that politicians and the media would play their role in stressing the common European significance of the European Constitution.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and France

215. What Prospects for the European Constitutional Treaty? - Monitoring the Ratification Debates

Author:
Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, and Justus Schönlau
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Following the success of the EPIN survey on the European elections 2004 (EPIN Working Paper No. 11), the authors decided to use a similar approach for monitoring the current ratification process of the European Constitutional Treaty. Accordingly, the findings presented in this paper are based on the results of a survey conducted among national experts associated with the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN). As such, they are inherently subjective, but nevertheless wellinformed. The report draws on survey data collected in 20 EU member states, supplemented by additional sources of information on the remaining countries where available. While the actual outcomes may prove our findings wrong in one respect or another, they do indicate interesting developments and differences in the respective member states. The added value of this EPIN survey lies in its broad comparative scope and analysis rather than its offering an in-depth assessment of each national debate. (For the latter, special country reports are envisaged at a later point in time.) The EPIN Ratification Monitor project plans to publish regular updates on the rapidly changing situation.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

216. The EU's fledgling society: From deafening silence to critical voice in European constitution making

Author:
John Erik Fossum and Hans-Jörg Trenz
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Research Papers Archive
Abstract:
The European Union is presently at a major crossroads. The Laeken process which launched the EU onto an explicit constitution-making process, has ground to a halt after the negative referendum results in France and the Netherlands. The European Council at its 16-17 June 2005 meeting decided to postpone the ratification process (by then 10 states had ratified and 2 had rejected) and instead issue a period of reflection. These events represent a significant re-politicization of the European integration process. From a research perspective they underline the need to study the dynamic interrelation between the emerging European polity and its social constituency. In this article we provide an analytical model of EU-constitutionalisation in terms of polity building and constituency building, a model that links institutional performance back to public voice and mobilisation. Our focus on determining the character of the EU's emerging social constituency goes beyond the contentious politics approach because it does not only focus on public voice but also provides a research framework for properly understanding the role of public silence. In empirical terms, this implies looking at the structure of public communication and claims-making in the EU and in the Member States. The European public sphere in relation to constitution making is then our object of analysis. More specifically, we present a research framework that will help us to shed light on the character of the EU's social constituency, as it emerges in dynamic interaction with the process of polity formation.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

217. Rethinking European Law's Supremacy

Author:
Christian Joerges, Rainer Nickel, Damian Chalmers, Florian Rödl, and Robert Wai
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Research Papers Archive
Abstract:
The clear rejection of the European Constitutional Treaty by the French and Dutch electorates seems to reflect, at least in part, the uneasiness of many European citizens with a Europe which they perceive to govern "from above" with insufficient legitimacy, and without an adequate balance of free market vs. social concerns.
Topic:
Government and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and France

218. The Development and the Prospects of the Czech Left – the Role of the Communist Party

Author:
Vladimír Handl
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
The parties of the Czech left have enjoyed a nominal majority in the House of Representatives of the Czech Parliament: the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) gained 70 seats and the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) 41 seats during the elections in June 2002. Both parties have so far used this political potential with caution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

219. A Perilous Democratic Exercise: The Referendum on the Constitutional Treaty in Denmark

Author:
Catharina Sørensen and Anne Mette Vestergard
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The Danish vote on the EU\'s Constitutional Treaty will take place on September 27. The Danes have been there before, but the referendum is a difficult discipline to master. Various aspects play a role and make predictions volatile. The present brief, updated regularly, takes a closer look at the Danish debate and its context.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

220. Measuring the Economic Impact of an EU–GCC Free Trade Agreement

Author:
David Kernohan and Dean A. DeRosa
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Economic growth rates in the Gulf region have languished in recent years and need to be raised to accommodate the rapidly growing populations and social aspirations of the region. Using a simple model of world trade, this report investigates the economic impacts of the new customs union of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the GCC and European Union. The quantitative results suggest that the new customs union and proposed EU-GCC free trade agreement both appreciably expand trade and improve economic welfare in the GCC countries, with little significant economic impact on the EU. As expected, the FTA results in larger GCC economic gains than the customs union because it affords GCC consumers greater opportunity to enjoy imports at internationally competitive prices. Although welfare gains under the proposed FTA closely approximate those under open regionalism (concerted trade liberalisation on a most favoured nation basis), reducing the 5% GCC common external tariff to about 3% as part of the FTA negotiations would not only ensure near-maximum trade performance and welfare gains but also add further to the attractiveness of the GCC countries as a location for foreign direct investment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, and Population
Political Geography:
Europe