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91. Stepping up Growth Policies

Author:
Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The eurozone is in recession and will show negative growth in 2012; GDP will fall sharply in Greece and Portugal, and there is substantial risk that Spain and Italy will follow suit (the Commission's recent forecasts seem overly optimistic and complacent; the IMF is more downbeat). But fiscal policies are uniformly restrictive throughout the eurozone and much of the Union, and the hopes that fiscal consolidation could spur growth by improving household and business confidence are not materialising. In reality, domestic demand has been hit too hard by fiscal consolidation, and investment throughout the Union remains well below pre- crisis levels. Credit is tight due to the deteriorating quality of borrowers and the ongoing deleveraging in banking.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

92. Eschewing Choice: Ukraine's Strategy on Russia and the EU

Author:
Elena Gnedina and Evghenia Sleptsova
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Ukraine has long been castigated for its noncommittal attitude to cooperation with the EU, this being part of its 'multi-vector' foreign policy. Such a policy was widely attributed to the failings of domestic elites, which delay reform for fear of losing rents and power. This CEPS Working Document suggests, however, that the recent setback in EU-Ukraine relations highlights more complex reasons behind this. First, it asserts that a pro-European vector is not a self-evident choice for Ukraine, which is economically interdependent with both Russia and the EU. Second, it finds that the economic crisis has made the EU less attractive in the short term. In good times business was looking to Europe for opportunities to develop. But in times of crisis, it is looking to Russia for cheap resources to survive. Despite these unfavourable short-term trends, the authors conclude that an association agreement with the EU stands out as the only alternative that promises to put the shaky Ukrainian economy back on track towards long-term sustainable economic growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

93. The South East Europe Pipeline: Greater Benefit for a Greater Number of Actors

Author:
Elnur Soltanov
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP), proposed by BP in late September 2011, could eventually be the pipeline carrying Azeri gas to European markets. Compared to its competitors in the Southern Corridor concept - Nabucco, TAP and ITGI - it goes furthest in terms of optimality for all the parties involved. The combined advantages of its size, scalability, usage of existing gas infrastructure in Europe and direction, promises a more reasonable economic and political value for the Shah Deniz Consortium, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Europe, while posing a bearable challenge to Russia. The SEEP seems to offer a greater value to a greater number of actors.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Azerbaijan

94. Defence Firms Facing Liberalization: Innovation and Export in an Agent-based Model of the Defence Industry

Author:
Fulvio Castellacci, Arne Fevolden, and Martin Blom
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper presents an agent-based simulation model of the defence industry. The model resembles some of the key characteristics of the European defence sector, and studies how firms in this market will respond to the challenges and opportunities provided by a higher degree of openness and liberalization in the future. The simulation analysis points out that European defence firms will progressively become more efficient, less dependent on public procurement and innovation policy support, and more prone to knowledge sharing and inter-firm collaborations. This firmlevel dynamics will in the long-run lead to an increase in the industry's export propensity and a less concentrated market.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Markets, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

95. Using US Strategic Reserves to Moderate Potential Oil Price Increases from Sanctions on Iran

Author:
Philip K. Verleger
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The United States has initiated new sanctions against Iran aimed at preventing it from collecting revenue from exports of crude oil. The European Union has followed, embargoing all imports of Iranian crude from July 1, 2012 and preventing any firms from entering into new contracts to import Iranian oil after January 23, 2012. The new US and EU sanctions could be the most draconian in many years. If implemented fully, US sanctions would force trading partners to choose between the United States and Iran. EU sanctions would cut Iran off from an important market. These sanctions, while reducing Iranian income, could pose a very serious economic threat to countries that have significant trade with the United States and/or import significant quantities of oil from Iran.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Oil, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

96. Renewables and the EU Internal Electricity Market: The case for an arranged marriage

Author:
Jonas Teusch
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This Policy Brief argues that pursuing the renewables objective could contribute to the completion of the internal electricity market, help to overcome opposition to transmission projects and decrease the market power of incumbents. Conversely, an integrated internal electricity market means less price volatility in specific regional markets, which allows for more efficient deployment and grid integration of renewables.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Markets
Political Geography:
Europe

97. Country Forecast: Global outlook

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Three years after the global economy reached its lowest point in three-quarters of a century, the recovery remains incomplete and the outlook uncertain. On March 9th 2009, the capitalisation of Morgan Stanley\'s global stockmarket index fell to US$26trn, nearly 60% below its 2007 peak. Today, the value of the world\'s stockmarkets has yet to return to the pre-crisis level—nor has the confidence of most consumers and businesses. The excesses of the last ten years—the personal debt accumulated early in the last decade and the public debt added during the recession—have saddled many countries with weak economic foundations and little or no resilience to shocks. This has left the US economy, in particular, struggling for a third straight year to lock in faster growth. It has left debt-ravaged Europe in recession and China manoeuvring unsteadily to deflate a bubble. On the brighter side, the global economy will grow again this year and the imbalances that built up over the past decade will continue to unwind. But global growth will be slower this year than last, and a host of risks—from elevated oil prices to war in the Middle East, to the collapse of Europe\'s single currency—will weigh on confidence and reduce spending and investment.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Middle East

98. The Migration Industry and Future Directions for Migration Policy

Author:
Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen and Ninna Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Migration has become business, big business. Over the last few decades a host of new opportunities have emerged that capitalise on migrants' desire to move as well as on governments' attempts to manage migratory flows. Across the globe we are witnessing a wide assembly of actors whose existence depends on money paid either to facilitate or to constrain migration mobility – specialised transportation companies, visa facilitation agencies, labour recruiters, security contractors, human smugglers and NGOs. The businesses involved in this migration industry range from small migrant entrepreneurs using their own experience to assist others making the journey, to big multinational companies who compete in the booming market of government contracts to carry out migration management. The commercialisation of international migration is evident at every step of the migratory process and takes place in virtually every country of emigration, transit and immigration. As such, the migration industry is not only an important phenomenon in and of itself, it also fundamentally impacts migratory flows and governments' attempts to manage or regulate migration.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Markets, Migration, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Europe

99. A Rapidly Changing Energy World, Or Perhaps Not

Author:
Irwin M. Stelzer
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Slow growth here and in China, and recession in Europe are reducing demand for oil. Inventories in the U.S. are at a 22-year high. The Federal Reserve Board's QEs that pumped paper money into the economy and drove up the nominal price of oil have come to an end. And the twelve OPEC oil cartelists, who between them supply 40% of the world's oil, are producing 1.6 million barrels in excess of the agreed daily quota of 30 million barrels. As a result, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices are now closer to $80 per barrel than to the $110 they reached only four months ago.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

100. Civil Society After Dictatorship: a Comparison of Portugal and Spain, 1970s–1990s

Author:
Tiago Fernandes
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper explains variations in patterns of civil society among third-wave democracies by comparing the cases of Portugal and Spain. In the former a civil society developed that had a tendency to be more oriented toward national issues and politics, whereas in the latter civil society tended to be more local, social, and disconnected from politics. Portugal, although having both a less developed economy and historically a weaker democratic tradition than Spain's, was a democracy that between the early 1970s and the mid-1990s offered more opportunities for the organized civic expression of popular interests.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Government, Human Rights, and Markets
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, and Portugal