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41. The Eurozone’s Hidden Strengths

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
For years, the eurozone has been perceived as a disaster area, with discussions of the monetary union’s future often centred on a possible breakup. When the British voted to leave the European Union last year, they were driven partly by the perception of the eurozone as a dysfunctional and possibly unsalvageable project. Yet, lately, the eurozone has become the darling of financial markets – and for good reason. The discovery of the eurozone’s latent strength was long overdue. Indeed, the eurozone has been recovering from the crisis of 2011-12 for several years. On a per capita basis, its economic growth now outpaces that of the United States. The unemployment rate is also declining – more slowly than in the US, to be sure, but that partly reflects a divergence in labour-force participation trends.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

42. Europe and the Gulf Crisis

Author:
Stasa Salacanin
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The GCC crisis has put all international actors, including Europe, in a complicated position, and as ever louder calls for the greater engagement in the mediation process comes at challenging times as Europe is facing countless problems at home.
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

43. How ASEAN’s Transformation Can Play Out Well for Europe

Author:
Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The transformation of ASEAN into an economic community is a significant step in the organisation’s integration process. The project, formally launched at the beginning of 2016, aims at creation of a single market of more than 620 million people, loosens the flow of goods, services and investment, which should underpin regional economic growth and catch the attention of foreign businesses. However, obstacles to economic cooperation remain, such as limitations on the movement of labour or capital, which shows that the integration process is not yet complete. The EU, which can benefit from a well-functioning market in this region, should share its own experience to support the ASEAN integration process.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Politics, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Europe

44. Political Economy of Trade With the European Union: South Africa's Pursuit of Narrow Self-Interest

Author:
Oscar Van Heerden
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
In the years between 1995 and 2008 South Africa was engaged in trade negotiations with the European Union (EU), which were seen as platform for addressing the trade imbalances in favour of the EU. In 2002, a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was signed between South Africa and the EU. Despite its membership to the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), South Africa engaged on the negotiations on its own which led to trade and political tensions with other countries within the community. By going alone South Africa was clearly indicating an appetite to vigorously pursue its interests at the expense of regional partners. It is argued that the exclusion, at an early stage of the negotiations, of other regional countries within SADC was counterproductive and had the potential to harm the regional trade relations. In addition, the change of approach at later stage that brought in the regional approach to the negotiations improved the regional trade relations within SADC.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and South Africa

45. CETA Without Blinders: How Cutting ‘Trade Costs and More’ Will Cause Unemployment, Inequality and Welfare Losses

Author:
Pierre Kohler and Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Proponents of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited official projections suggest modest GDP gains after about a decade, varying from between 0.003% to 0.08% in the European Union and between 0.03% to 0.76% in Canada. However, all these quantitative projections stem from the same trade model, which assumes full employment and neutral (if not constant) income distribution in all countries, excluding from the outset any of the major risks of deeper liberalization. This lack of intellectual diversity and of realism shrouding the debate around CETA’s alleged economic benefits calls for an alternative assessment grounded in more realistic modeling premises. In this paper, we provide alternative projections of CETA’s economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model (GPM). Allowing for changes in employment and income distribution, we obtain very different results. In contrast to positive outcomes projected with full-employment models, we find CETA will lead to intra-EU trade diversion. More importantly, in the current context of tepid economic growth, competitive pressures induced by CETA will cause unemployment, inequality and welfare losses. At a minimum, this shows that official studies do not offer a solid basis for an informed decision on CETA.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, GDP, and Diversity
Political Geography:
Europe

46. Shifting Sands: Power, Uncertainty and the Form of International Legal Cooperation

Author:
Timothy Meyer
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
This article argues that the form of international agreements – binding hard law agreements versus non-binding soft law agreements – can be partially explained by states’ interests in promoting renegotiation in the presence of uncertainty and shifting power. I make this argument in three steps. First, I explain that states regularly use unilateral non-compliance as a renegotiation strategy. Second, I argue that making an agreement soft facilitates this use of unilateral non-compliance. Third, I analyse the conditions – uncertainty characterized by common interests (but not uncertainty characterized by distributive concerns) and shifting power – under which facilitating renegotiation through soft law will appeal to states. In particular, I argue that in the presence of these conditions preventing renegotiation creates long-term costs for states that can inhibit short-term cooperation. In effect, under these conditions the shadow of the future can inhibit cooperation rather than support it, as is conventionally thought. These conditions are common to many major contemporary subjects of international cooperation in a way they were not during the latter half of the 20th century, partially explaining the increased importance of soft law to contemporary international governance.
Topic:
International Relations, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Europe, United Nations, and Global Focus

47. Shifting Sands: Power, Uncertainty and the Form of International Legal Cooperation

Author:
Timothy Meyer
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
This article argues that the form of international agreements – binding hard law agreements versus non-binding soft law agreements – can be partially explained by states’ interests in promoting renegotiation in the presence of uncertainty and shifting power. I make this argument in three steps. First, I explain that states regularly use unilateral non-compliance as a renegotiation strategy. Second, I argue that making an agreement soft facilitates this use of unilateral non-compliance. Third, I analyse the conditions – uncertainty characterized by common interests (but not uncertainty characterized by distributive concerns) and shifting power – under which facilitating renegotiation through soft law will appeal to states. In particular, I argue that in the presence of these conditions preventing renegotiation creates long-term costs for states that can inhibit short-term cooperation. In effect, under these conditions the shadow of the future can inhibit cooperation rather than support it, as is conventionally thought. These conditions are common to many major contemporary subjects of international cooperation in a way they were not during the latter half of the 20th century, partially explaining the increased importance of soft law to contemporary international governance.
Topic:
International Law, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Europe, United Nations, and Global Focus

48. European insurance union and how to get there

Author:
Dirk Schoenmaker
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
What are the arguments for and against centralisation of insurance supervision? What would be the scope of a possible insurance union, and what would the legal basis be? How rapid should the move to insurance union be? This Policy Brief sets out to answer these questions.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

49. Europe: The Current Situation and the Way Forward

Author:
Wolfgang Schäuble
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program features an address by Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's Federal Minister of Finance, titled Europe: The Current Situation and the Way Forward. The address will be followed by a panel discussion and question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

50. Stability Bonds for the Euro Area

Author:
Angel Ubide
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The rules and buffers created in the last few years to enable the euro area to withstand another sudden stop of credit and market-driven panic in one or more of its member states are welcome steps, but they are widely recognized as inadequate. Ubide proposes creating a system of stability bonds in the euro area, to be issued by a new European Debt Agency, to partially finance the debt of euro area countries—up to 25 percent of GDP. These stability bonds should be initially backed by tax revenues transferred from national treasuries, but ultimately by the creation of euro area–wide tax revenues, and used to fund the operations of national governments. They could also be used for euro area–wide fiscal stimulus, to complement the fiscal policies of member states. Such bonds would strengthen the euro area economic infrastructure, creating incentives for countries to reduce their deficits but not forcing them to do so when such actions would drive their economies further into a downturn. The bonds would permit the euro area to adopt a more flexible or expansionary fiscal policy during recessions.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and GDP
Political Geography:
Europe