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882. Why European Citizens Will Reject the EU Constitution
- Author:
- Claes H. de Vreese
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This study tests competing hypotheses about popular support for European integration. It introduces anti-immigration sentiments as a key variable for understanding reluctance towards integration. Drawing on survey data, it is found that anti-immigration sentiments, economic considerations, and the evaluation of domestic governments are the strongest predictors of both support for integration and individuals' propensity to vote “Yes” in a referendum on the enlargement of the EU. When extrapolating the findings to future referendums on issues of European integration, it may be predicted that such referendums will result in a “No” outcome under the conditions of high levels of anti-immigration sentiments, pessimistic economic outlooks, and/or unpopularity of a government.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
883. The EMU Macroeconomic Policy Regime and the European Social Model
- Author:
- Andrew Martin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper will be a chapter in Euros and Europeans: Monetary Integration and the European Social Model, Andrew Martin and George Ross, eds., Cambridge University Press, 2004. Over time, the impact of EMU on the European social model (ESM) is likely to depend most fundamentally on its effects on unemployment. If EMU makes possible a significant reduction in unemployment, it poses no threat to the ESM. However, EMU is likely to keep unemployment at high levels. This expectation hinges on two propositions: 1) in order to bring unemployment back down after an extended period of disinflation has kept growth below its potential and unemployment high, a period of economic growth above its long-run potential – a growth spurt – is necessary, and 2), the EMU macroeconomic policy regime, as interpreted and implemented by the ECB, blocks such a growth spurt. The first part of the paper describes the policy regime, arguing that the ECB's implementation of it so far and the bank's rationale for doing so indicate an unwillingness to permit the growth spurt needed to significantly reduce unemployment. Its rationale invokes the orthodox view that monetary policy has no long run effects on growth and employment. This view is challenged by an alternative view, described in the second part. The alternative rests mainly on an empirical analysis of cases in which disinflation was and was not followed by growth spurts during the 1980s and 1990s. Showing that in the long run unemployment was lower without higher inflation where monetary policy permitted growth spurts than where it did not, this analysis suggests that the ECB's orthodoxy is fundamentally flawed and that adherence to it will perpetuate Europe's high unemployment.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
884. Learning and Change in Twentieth-Century British Economic Policy
- Author:
- Michael J. Oliver and Hugh Pemberton
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Despite considerable interest in the means by which policy learning occurs, and in how it is that the framework of policy may be subject to radical change, the “black box” of economic policymaking remains surprisingly murky. This article utilizes Peter Hall's concept of “social learning” to develop a more sophisticated model of policy learning; one in which paradigm failure does not necessarily lead to wholesale paradigm replacement, and in which an administrative battle of ideas may be just as important a determinant of paradigm change as a political struggle. It then applies this model in a survey of UK economic policymaking since the 1930s: examining the shift to “Keynesianism” during the 1930s and 1940s; the substantial revision of this framework in the 1960s; the collapse of the “Keynesian-plus” framework in the 1970s; and the major revisions to the new “neo-liberal” policy framework in the 1980s and 1990s.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
885. How Can International Organizations Shape National Welfare States? Evidence from Compliance with EU Directives
- Author:
- Katerina Linos
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- How can international organizations shape national welfare states? The answer depends on why national governments comply with international organization mandates. International relations scholarship offers two competing compliance models. Enforcement theories emphasize states' utilitarian calculus and predict that states' policy preferences determine implementation, while managerial theories attribute non-compliance to states' capability limitations and emphasize institutional variables. This paper examines the implementation of EU social policy directives through a new quantitative dataset and qualitative case studies of implementation in Greece and Spain. Three proxies for national social policy preferences – low labor costs, high unemployment and early national social legislation – predict implementation delays. At the same time, factors unrelated to national preferences on particular directives have at least as large an impact on timely implementation. Thus, a national bureaucracy's capacity and the absence of veto players reduce implementation delays. These findings suggest that capabilities influence compliance at least as much as preferences, but through mechanisms different from the ones emphasized in existing work. Although international organizations may not be especially successful in overcoming past policy legacies in favor of future commitments, they can reorient the axes of contestation from left-right to supra-sub national and thus shape national policies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
886. The Choice for Russia: Compete or Fail
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- Russia is at a crossroads. Current levels of national economic growth cannot be sustained without significantly restructuring the country's economic system. If economic growth is not sustained, financing for important social reforms will face serious strains, and expectations that have been built up among the Russian population over the past five years will go unrealized. As a result, the political system and the population's long - term well being will be put at risk. To counter this danger, Russia needs to change its national consciousness away from social paternalism and towards competitiveness. This needs to be implemented in a way that Russian citizens, politicians and business people can understand and support. Russia can only meet its expectations of long - term growth and a higher overall standard of living by increasing levels of competitiveness across sectors and delivering tangible and positive results to its citizens.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Population, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
887. Transforming Competitiveness in European Transition Economies: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment
- Author:
- Jasminka Sohinger
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies
- Abstract:
- Foreign direct investment (FDI) has become one of the main drivers of globalization and integration of the European transition economies into the world economy, especially the European Union. Its growth enhancing capacity has played a significant role in transforming their competitiveness, both locally and on international markets, and its propensity to stimulate institution buliding is changing both economic and political landscapes in the region. The economic conditionality of FDI and the EU access-driven reforms are working hand in hand in helping the goals of transition and the convergence process. The achievement of both goals is seen as the best guarantor of peace and security in the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Europe
888. Copying the Nasdaq Stock Market in Europe: Supranational Politics and the Convergence-Divergence Debate
- Author:
- Elliot Posner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies
- Abstract:
- Financial arrangements reflect political bargains. Like national labor regimes, the formal and informal rules and relationships governing the allocation of financial resources distinguish one type of capitalist society from another. How firms are financed shapes companies and industries and affects the risks citizens must bear, how they save for retirement, where they work, their job security and ability to buy homes, and the disparity between rich and poor. Leading theories provide increasingly inadequate explanations for changing institutional arrangements in western European finance. They emphasize convergence to global standards and the causal effects of either increased levels of mobile capital or the diffusion of ideas. Or else they describe change within a national trajectory and attribute it primarily to domestic politics, national historical institutions and path dependency. They exclude the possibility of independent regional-level causes. My empirical study of changing financial arrangements for smaller European companies between 1977 and 2003 reveals causes rooted firmly in European Union politics. Neither global forces nor national institutions were primarily responsible for drawing the stock exchanges of Europe into cross-border competition and prompting them to create new US-style markets. Instead, supranational political entrepreneurs, acting with relative autonomy, largely drove this pattern of institutional change. In pushing beyond the international-domestic dichotomy and emphasizing the independent effects of European-level politics, my argument contributes to a growing body of detailed empirical research on the national and global impact of the EU. It also provides more sustained analysis of the causes, mechanisms and effects of adopting US institutional forms outside American borders.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- America and Europe
889. Industrialization and Urbanization: Did the Steam Engine Contribute to the Growth of Cities in the United States?
- Author:
- Sukkoo Kim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies
- Abstract:
- Industrialization and urbanization are seen as twin processes of economic development. However, the exact nature of their causal relationship is still open to considerable debate. This paper uses firm-level data from the manuscripts of the decennial censuses between 1850 and 1880 to examine whether the adoption of the steam engine as the primary power source by manufacturers during industrialization contributed to urbanization. While the data indicate that steam-powered firms were more likely to locate in urban areas than water-powered firms, the adoption of the steam engine did not contribute substantially to urbanization.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
890. Time for More Currency Flexibility
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- The last big wave of European and Japanese concern about a weak dollar came after the August 1971 breakdown of the Bretton Woods System of fixed exchange rates. At that time European countries feared inflation and, not wanting to support the dollar and thereby import U.S. inflation pressures, they accepted revaluation of their currencies with some misgivings because, as always, a weaker dollar meant more difficulty in competing with vigorous U.S. traded-goods companies.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe