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652. What do we know about the economics of adaptation?
- Author:
- Asbjørn Aaheim and Marianne Aasen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- An attempt to summarise the state of knowledge about social and economic challenges related to climate change, for example based on the latest IPCC reports, would probably give the impression that impacts, adaptation and vulnerability are a question of interactions between people and institutions within small local communities (IPCC, 2007a), whereas mitigation can be addressed by political analyses and economics (IPCC, 2007b). In most economic studies, the motivation behind mitigation is presented as that of limiting greenhouse gas emissions to a given target
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
653. What lessons can be learned from the EU emissions trading scheme?
- Author:
- Christian Egenhofer and Noriko Fujiwara
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) is designed to help EU member states achieve their commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a cost-effective way. It was not meant to work as a stand-alone tool but as part of the package of abatement measures across the board. It is a cap-and-trade system. Member states first impose caps on GHG emissions – initially only CO2 until 2012 – from installations in specified sectors, mainly the power sector and industry subsectors (e.g. steel, cement, glass, paper and pulp). Emissions from these sectors amount to 40% of total EU emissions. Next, they allocate allowances to installations. Each installation surrenders a number of allowances equal to the total emissions from that installation during the preceding year.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Europe
654. Iceland on the brink? Options for a Small, Financially Active Economy in the Current Financial Crisis Environment
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- For small financially active countries the exchange rate assumes particular importance, not only as a shock absorber, but potentially also as a source of shocks during financial market crises. This is very much in evidence today in the case of Iceland which is being hit hard by the recent turbulence in financial markets.
- Topic:
- Economics and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
655. A new budget for the European Union?
- Author:
- Stefano Micossi, Maria Teresa Salvemini, and Alfonso Iozzo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The present budget of the European Union has long ceased to represent European policy priorities; it is the result of decisions taken decades ago and subsequent incremental adjustments decided under the pressure of external events or for political expediency. Its increasing detachment from emerging needs and policy priorities undermines support for the Union among public opinion.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Europe
656. Is Social Europe Fit for Globalisation?
- Author:
- Jørgen Mortensen, ain Begg, and Juraj Draxler
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This policy brief picks up the main observations and arguments included in a study undertaken by CEPS for the Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities of the European Commission. It was presented by Iain Begg at a major Commission conference in Brussels on 16 April 2008, which had broad attendance by officials, media people and researchers, and was concluded by a keynote speech by José Manuel Barroso, President of the Commission. The conference took place at a time of emerging financial crisis and rising oil and food prices, aspects emphasised by some speakers as elements throwing new light on some of the arguments in the report. Hans-Gert Pöttering, President of the European Parliament, stressed that promotion of knowledge and innovation constitutes an important condition for enhancing the competitiveness of the European economy. Thus, the Union should take on a leadership role in combining globalisation with social policy, fighting climate change and fostering environmental stability. Mr. Barroso, in his conclusions underlined the necessity of a renewal of social policies based on equal opportunities, access and solidarity.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, Markets, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Europe
657. Recalibrating EU Policy towards the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The time is not only ripe but pressing for the EU and the states of the Western Balkans to recalibrate and reinforce the current pre-accession strategy. Trade policy should be moved beyond existing free trade commitments for all the Western Balkans to enter the customs union of the EU and Turkey. Eurozone doctrine should be adapted to realities. Rather than regarding the use of the euro by Montenegro and Kosovo as an unfortunate turn of events, the costs and benefits of unilateral adoption of the euro by not-yet member states of the region should be more openly appraised, and the option to 'euroise' recognised as a possibility. It is good that the EU has moved at the declaratory level toward s visa 'liberalisation', which means scrapping visas rather than just 'facilitation' measures. However the Commission has not yet published guidelines or timelines for this. The region should be put on track for access to the Structural Funds on terms and scales progressively approaching those from which new member states such as Bulgaria and Romania already benefit. The ratio of these aid receipts between the new member states and the Western Balkans is currently 4:1; the former are receiving more than they can handle efficiently, whereas the Western Balkans have huge unsatisfied needs. Overall the case is made for significant moves towards 'functional membership' of the whole of the region with the EU, which would be a highly useful advance, irrespective of how or when the EU overcomes its Lisbon Treaty hiatus.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Balkans, Romania, and Lisbon
658. The Banking Crisis: Causes, Consequences and Remedies
- Author:
- Paul De Grauwe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The paradigm that financial markets are efficient has provided the intellectual backbone for the deregulation of the banking sector since the 1980s, allowing universal banks to be fully involved in financial markets, and investment banks to become involved in traditional banking. There is now overwhelming evidence that financial markets are not efficient. Bubbles and crashes are an endemic feature of financial markets in capitalist countries. Thus, as a result of deregulation, the balance sheets of universal banks became fully exposed to these bubbles and crashes, undermining the stability of the banking system. The Basel approach to stabilise the banking system has as an implicit assumption that financial markets are efficient, allowing us to model the risks universal banks take and to compute the required capital ratios that will minimise this risk. I argue that this approach is unworkable because the risks that matter for universal banks are tail risks, associated with bubbles and crashes. These cannot be quantified. As a result, there is only one way out, and that is to return to narrow banking, a model that emerged after the previous large-scale banking crisis of the 1930s but that was discarded during the 1980s and 1990s under the influence of the efficient market paradigm.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
659. Remapping Inequality in Europe: The Net Effect of Regional Integration on Total Income Inequality in the European Union
- Author:
- Jason Beckfield
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Research on the determinants of inequality has implicated globalization in the increased income inequality observed in many advanced capitalist countries since the 1970s. Meanwhile, a different form of international embeddedness — regional integration — has largely escaped attention. Regional integration, conceptualized as the construction of international economy and polity within negotiated regions, should matter for inequality. This paper offers theoretical arguments that distinguish globalization from regional integration, connects regional integration to inequality through multiple theoretical mechanisms, develops hypotheses on the relationship between regional integration and inequality, and reports fresh empirical evidence on the net effect of regional integration on inequality in Western Europe. Three classes of models are used in the analysis: (1) time-series models where region-year is the unit of analysis, (2) panel models where country-year is the unit of analysis, and (3) analysis of variance to identify how the between- and within-country components of income inequality have changed over time. The evidence suggests that regional integration remaps inequality in Europe. Regionalization is associated with both a decrease in between-country inequality, and an increase in within-country inequality. The analysis of variance shows that the net effect is negative, and that within-country inequality now comprises a larger proportion of total income inequality.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and Social Stratification
- Political Geography:
- Europe
660. Country Economic Forecasts: Germany
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Germany appears to be slipping deeper into recession. The latest industrial figures are alarming: production fell 2.1% in October and orders were down 17.3%. If output remained at current levels to year-end, then Q4 would be down 3.2% on Q3, but the situation is deteriorating. The manufacturing PMI is below 40 and the expectations component of the Ifo is at its lowest level since the first oil crisis in the early 1970s. Key to the rapid decline has been an abrupt halt to investment, both in Germany and globally. Investment in machinery and equipment had stalled in Q3 and domestic orders of capital goods then dropped 6% in both October and November. Business investment will fall by over 4% in 2009. But exports have also seen a rapid decline, having fallen in both Q2 and Q3, while export expectations are near all-time lows. Export volumes are expected to drop next year, despite the depreciation of the euro. We have slashed our growth forecasts, with GDP now likely to fall by at least 1% in Q4. And we now do not expect the economy to emerge from recession until 2009H2 and for the economy to shrink by over 2% in 2009 overall – the biggest drop in over 60 years. Rapidly declining oil prices and an extended recession mean inflation could fall close to zero by next summer. Inflation has already slowed to 1.4% in November from a peak of 3.1% in July.
- Topic:
- Economics and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany